Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.408
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Jeinsa : Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang
Muh. Qardawi Hamzah
Universitas Negeri Makassar
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Published : 2 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search

 1 
ARIMA AS A TOOL FOR EARLY WARNING OF INFLATION IN INDONESIA: SHORT-TERM FORECASTING AND THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC STABILITY Farida Islamiah; Via Amalia; Muh. Qardawi Hamzah
Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang Vol 5 No 1 (2026): hal
Publisher : Universitas Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61912/jeinsa.v5i1.417

Abstract

Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator affecting purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall economic stability; therefore, reliable forecasts are essential for proactive policy responses. This study aims to develop a monthly inflation forecasting model for Indonesia while interpreting its implications for economic stability. The data consist of Indonesia’s monthly inflation from January 2003 to April 2026 (280 observations) sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach using standard steps: stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. The results indicate that the series requires first differencing to achieve stationarity, and the most appropriate model based on statistically significant parameters, the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value among valid candidates, and white-noise residual diagnostics is ARIMA (0,1,2). Forecasts for May to December 2026 suggest inflation will fluctuate within a moderate range of 2.12% to 4.50%, peaking in August 2026 at 4.50% and reaching the lowest level in October 2026 at 2.12%. Overall, the projected pattern implies relatively controlled inflation dynamics, providing an early signal that can support price-stabilization policy planning and improve certainty for real-sector production and investment activities.
FAKTOR PENENTU ADOPSI MEDIA SOSIAL DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP KINERJA PENJUALAN USAHA SEKTOR INFORMAL DI INDONESIA Syahril Syahril; Fadil Muhammad; Muh. Qardawi Hamzah; Selly Kudrati Ningsih; Farida Islamiah
Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang Vol 5 No 1 (2026): hal
Publisher : Universitas Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61912/jeinsa.v5i1.340

Abstract

The informal sector plays a crucial role in the Indonesian economy, accounting for a significant share of labor absorption. However, it is also closely linked to poverty, low productivity, wage inequality, and limited tax revenue and financial deepening. Social media adoption is seen as a business development strategy, yet the majority of informal businesses have not yet adopted it. This study analyzed the influence of social media on sales and the determinants of adoption using linear regression and probit logistic regression. The results indicate that education, owner age, smartphone ownership, and electricity access influence social media adoption, whereas experience does not. Social media also had no significant impact on the sales of informal sector businesses. Keywords: Informal Sector, Social Media, Sales, Business Actors
Co-Authors Fadil Muhammad Farida Islamiah Selly Kudrati Ningsih Syahril Syahril Via Amalia