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All Journal Jeinsa : Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Farida Islamiah
Universitas Negeri Makassar
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Physics Social Sciences Other

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ARIMA AS A TOOL FOR EARLY WARNING OF INFLATION IN INDONESIA: SHORT-TERM FORECASTING AND THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC STABILITY Farida Islamiah; Via Amalia; Muh. Qardawi Hamzah
Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang Vol 5 No 1 (2026): hal
Publisher : Universitas Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61912/jeinsa.v5i1.417

Abstract

Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator affecting purchasing power, investment decisions, and overall economic stability; therefore, reliable forecasts are essential for proactive policy responses. This study aims to develop a monthly inflation forecasting model for Indonesia while interpreting its implications for economic stability. The data consist of Indonesia’s monthly inflation from January 2003 to April 2026 (280 observations) sourced from Bank Indonesia. The analysis applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach using standard steps: stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. The results indicate that the series requires first differencing to achieve stationarity, and the most appropriate model based on statistically significant parameters, the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value among valid candidates, and white-noise residual diagnostics is ARIMA (0,1,2). Forecasts for May to December 2026 suggest inflation will fluctuate within a moderate range of 2.12% to 4.50%, peaking in August 2026 at 4.50% and reaching the lowest level in October 2026 at 2.12%. Overall, the projected pattern implies relatively controlled inflation dynamics, providing an early signal that can support price-stabilization policy planning and improve certainty for real-sector production and investment activities.
Pemberdayaan Ekonomi Lokal Melalui Budidaya Lebah Trigona di Desa Lantawonua Bombana Isma Muthahharah; Zakiyah Mar’ah; Hardianti Hafid; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana; Farida Islamiah
SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 6, No 1 (2026): April
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/smart.v6i1.83144

Abstract

Rendahnya pemanfaatan potensi vegetasi lokal di Desa Lantawonua, Kabupaten Bombana, menjadi isu utama yang melatarbelakangi perlunya diversifikasi ekonomi melalui sektor kreatif. Fokus pengabdian ini adalah pemberdayaan ekonomi keluarga melalui budidaya lebah tanpa sengat (Trigona) dengan memanfaatkan lahan pekarangan dan kebun produktif. Tujuan pengabdian ini adalah untuk meningkatkan keterampilan teknis masyarakat dalam budidaya lebah serta membentuk kemandirian ekonomi melalui kelompok usaha yang terorganisir. Metode pelaksanaan menggunakan pendekatan partisipatif dengan strategi riset aksi yang meliputi sosialisasi pemetaan wilayah vegetasi berbasis visual, pendampingan pembentukan kelompok UPPKA "Measa Laro", pelatihan teknis lapangan, serta sistem monitoring dan evaluasi berkala. Hasil pengabdian menunjukkan adanya peningkatan signifikan pada kapasitas masyarakat dalam mengelola potensi alam secara lestari, dengan tingkat keberhasilan adaptasi koloni lebah mencapai 90%. Kegiatan ini menegaskan bahwa integrasi antara edukasi teknis dan penguatan kelembagaan lokal mampu menciptakan ketahanan ekonomi desa yang berbasis pada kelestarian ekosistem.
Co-Authors Hardianti Hafid Isma Muthahharah Muh. Qardawi Hamzah Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Via Amalia Zakiyah Mar’ah