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All Journal Bio Ilmi: Jurnal Pendidikan BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika J-COSCIS : Journal of Computer Science Community Service Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Malikussaleh Jurnal GAMMA-PI Jurnal Masyarakat Berdikari dan Berkarya (MARDIKA) Amalgamasi: Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Saumi, Fazrina
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Journal : Jurnal GAMMA-PI

 1 
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI PADI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA Baringbing, Meylani; Natasyah, Nabila; saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.9306

Abstract

Rice farming has a major role in the economy and food security, including in Langsa City. The availability and stability of rice production plays an important role in meeting people's food needs. Therefore, forecasting rice production results is crucial in developing resource management strategies, budget allocations and more focused agricultural policies.The main objective of this research is to provide a solid foundation for strategic planning and decision making in the rice farming sector in West Sumatra. By understanding trends and growth patterns in rice production, it is hoped that this research will make a positive contribution to increasing agricultural productivity, farmer welfare, and food security at the local and regional levels.national. The data research method used in this research is annual data on the amount of rice production in West Sumatra Province (in tons). Data on the amount of rice production was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study focuses on food availability and the agricultural sector in West Sumatra Province by utilizing rice production data from 2018 to 2022. The method applied in this research is the ARIMA method. The following are the steps taken in forecasting using the ARIMA method using Minitab software. The ARIMA(111) model is the best ARIMA model with the smallest MAPE value of 1% for forecasting rice production in West Sumatra Province. Forecasting rice production in West Sumatra Province in 2021 to 2023 is 272,931.95 tons, 271,883.11 respectively. tonnes and 19,554.74 tonnes. The forecast results are lower than the amount of rice production from the previous year, namely 2021 and 2022. Apart from that, from the forecast results it can be seen that rice production in 2023 is lower than in 2022, namely 19,554.74 tons
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 2024 MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN Daratullaila; Mutiara; saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.9311

Abstract

Kelapa sawit berperan penting dalam industri minyak nabati. Minyak kelapa sawit adalah salah satu komoditas yang paling diminati dan diperdagangkan di pasar global, digunakan dalam berbagai produk sehari-hari seperti makanan olahan dan sebagai bahan baku utama dalam produksi bahan bakar biodiesel. Indonesia adalah produsen terbesar kelapa sawit di dunia, menyumbang sekitar 50% dari total produksi global. Sebagai produsen terbesar minyak kelapa sawit di dunia, Indonesia memiliki peran besar dalam menyediakan pasokan global minyak nabati. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan produksi kelapa sawit di Indonesia pada tahun 2024 menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen. Ada beberapa tahapan metode time series mulai dari menghitung panjang interval, fuzzifikasi, menentukan FLR (Fuzzy Logical Relationship), menentukan FLRG (Fuzzy Logical Relationship Group, menghitung nilai peramalan kemudian setelah didapat hasil peramalan, akan dilakukan uji ketepatan peramalan dengan melihat nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Setelah mengikuti langkah-langkah pada peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Chen, didapatkan nilai peramalan jumlah produksi kelapa sawit di Indonesia pada tahun 2024 sebesar 44.549.793 ton dengan tingkat peramalan sangat akurat yang diukur dengan MAPE sebesar 3.99%.
Peramalan Produksi Padi di Kota Padang Dengan Metode ARIMA Putri Nabila; Saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 2 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i2.9315

Abstract

Padang City, as one of the centers of economic growth in the region, has its own challenges and opportunities in managing rice production. Factors such as weather conditions, agricultural technology, and government policies can influence rice production. Therefore, using the ARIMA method can help related parties to respond to changing conditions more quickly and effectively. This research aims to apply the ARIMA method in predicting rice production in Padang City. By identifying historical patterns of rice production, it is hoped that patterns can be found that can be used as a basis for predicting future production. It is hoped that the results of this research can contribute to increasing the efficiency of rice production and supporting food security in this city. The data research method used in this research is monthly data on the amount of rice production in Padang City (in tons). Data on the amount of rice production was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study focuses on rice production results in Padang City by utilizing rice production data from 2018 to 2022. The method applied in this research is the ARIMA method. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) is the best ARIMA model with the smallest MAPE value, namely 99% for forecasting rice production in Padang City. From the table of forecasting results, rice production in the city of Padang in 2023 is highest in December, namely 9.295 and the lowest in February, namely -39.0994. The forecast results are lower than the amount of rice production from the previous year.
ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN RATA-RATA JUMLAH SERTIFIKAT TANAH YANG DI TERBITKAN TIAP KECAMATAN DI KABUPATEN LABUHANBATU TAHUN 2023 DAN 2024 Okta, Okta Safira ritonga; Fairus; Saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i1.11658

Abstract

The land certification program is a strategic step in supporting agrarian reform and ensuring legal certainty for the community. However, its implementation in Labuhanbatu Regency shows an imbalance in the number of certificates issued between sub-districts. This study was conducted to determine whether there is a significant difference in the average number of land certificates issued in each sub-district in Labuhanbatu Regency between 2023 and 2024. The type of data used is sourced from secondary data obtained through the Central Statistics Agency of Labuhanbatu Regency analyzed quantitatively. The normality test that has been carried out shows that the 2023 data results are not normally distributed, so the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test is used as an alternative to the paired t-test. From the results of the analysis, the average issuance of land certificates in 2023 was 615.00 and in 2024 it was 463.78. With a Wilcoxon test significance value of 0.139> 0.05, it shows that there is no statistically significant difference between years. Thus, although there is a decrease in numbers, the change is not statistically significant. These results are expected to be used as evaluation material in planning a more even land certification policy in Labuhanbatu Regency. Program sertifikasi tanah adalah langkah strategis dalam mendukung reformasi agraria dan menjamin kepastian hukum bagi masyarakat. Namun, pelaksanaannya di Kabupaten Labuhanbatu menunjukkan adanya ketimpangan jumlah sertifikat yang diterbitkan antar kecamatan. Penelitian ini dilakukan bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan rata-rata jumlah sertifikat tanah yang diterbitkan di tiap kecamatan di Kabupaten Labuhanbatu antara tahun 2023 dan 2024. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah yang bersumber dari data sekunder diperoleh melalui Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Labuhanbatu dianalisis secara kuantitatif. Uji normalitas yang telah dilakukan menunjukkan hasil data tahun 2023 tidak berdistribusi normal, sehingga digunakan uji Wilcoxon Signed Rank sebagai alternatif paired t-test. Dari hasil analisis rata-rata penerbitan sertifikat tanah tahun 2023 sebesar 615,00 dan tahun 2024 sebesar 463,78. Dengan nilai signifikansi uji Wilcoxon sebesar 0,139 > 0,05, menunjukkan tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan secara statistik antar tahun. Dengan demikian, meskipun terdapat penurunan secara angka, perubahan tersebut tidak signifikan secara statistik. Hasil ini diharapkan menjadi bahan evaluasi dalam perencanaan kebijakan sertifikasi tanah yang lebih merata di Kabupaten Labuhanbatu.
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENERIMA PBI APBD MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DI KANTOR BPJS CABANG KOTA LANGSA Helena, Adellia; Saumi, Fazrina; Mawarni
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i1.11853

Abstract

BPJS Kesehatan merupakan transformasi dari PT Askes (Persero), yang sebelumnya hanya memberikan layanan kesehatan kepada PNS. Dengan sistem Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN), BPJS Kesehatan menjamin akses layanan kesehatan secara menyeluruh, baik promotif, preventif, kuratif, maupun rehabilitatif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan meramalkan jumlah peserta penerima PBI APBD di Kantor BPJS Cabang Kota Langsa selama tahun 2024. Dengan menggunakan metode Exponential Smoothing, untuk memberikan gambaran yang jelas kenaikan jumlah peserta penerima PBI APBD yang dapat digunakan untuk perencanaan di tahun yang akan datang, Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data kuantitatif sedangkan sumber data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yaitu data yang diperoleh dari Kantor BPJS Kesehatan Cabang Kota Langsa. yang mencakup data jumlah peserta penerima PBI APBD selama periode Tahun 2024. Dengan Kenaikan jumlah peserta di tahun 2025 akan terus stabil di kisaran 2%-4% per tahun, dengan tetap memperhatikan faktor-faktor eksternal yang dapat mempengaruhi jumlah peserta. Dan Perkiraan kenaikan yang lebih signifikan di tahun 2026 kemungkinan terjadi dengan potensi kenaikan 5%-7% per tahun, model ini juga memberikan gambaran bahwa program PBI APBD tetap akan memberikan dampak yang signifikan pada penerima manfaat, dengan peningkatan jumlah penerima yang sejalan dengan kebijakan pemerintah dan dinamika sosial ekonomi. BPJS Kesehatan is a transformation of PT Askes (Persero), which previously only provided health services to civil servants. With the National Health Insurance (JKN) system, BPJS Kesehatan guarantees access to comprehensive health services, including promotive, preventive, curative, and rehabilitative. This study aims to analyze and forecast the number of PBI APBD recipients at the Langsa City Branch of the BPJS Office during 2024. This study uses the Exponential Smoothing method to predict the increase in the number of PBI APBD recipients, so that the forecasting results can provide a clear picture of the upward trend and become the basis for program planning in the following years. The data used is the number of PBI APBD recipients during the 2024 period. The forecasting results show that the number of PBI APBD recipients in 2025 is estimated to increase steadily by around 2%–4% per year. Meanwhile, in 2026, a more significant increase is predicted, namely around 5%–7% per year. This model illustrates that the APBD PBI program will continue to have a positive impact on beneficiaries, with an increase in the number of participants in line with government policies and the socio-economic conditions of the community.
Co-Authors Agus Kurniawan Agustina, Indrianti Almi, Rahmad Amelia Amelia Aprilia Putri, Kartika Armanda, Fahmi Armanda, Fahmy Audiyah, Tita Baringbing, Meylani Daratullaila Daratullaila, Daratullaila Endah Sari, Herlina Putri Fadhelina, Nishbah Fairus Ginting, Lestari Imala Helena, Adellia Intan Sari Khairunnisa, Firza Khaliza, Rani Nur Kristina, Desi Liza Fitria, Liza Lubis, Marlina Maidita, Rizka Mawarni Muliani, Fitra Murni, Mayang Mutiara Nabilla, Ulya Natasyah, Nabila Ndiva, Shahnaz Tanzilla Nurfadillah, Dea Okta, Okta Safira ritonga Olivia, Miranda Purnama Febri, Suri Putri Nabila Rahmawati, Rahmawati Riza Pahlevi, Riza Rizki Amalia Rosa Indah, Dewi Salman Salman Salsabilah, Anastasya Sari, Riska Novita Shopia, Shopia Sianturi, Melfa Wati Sirait, Khairunnas Fadjriah Sofiyan Tarisma, Tantri Wardani, Suci wibowo atmaja, teuku Hadi Yusman Persada, Andri Zahara Zahara