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All Journal Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Jurnal Abdi Insani
Kustiawan, Elyas
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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Model Regresi Cox Untuk Data Masa Studi (Studi Kasus: Data Masa Studi Mahasiswa Fakultas Teknik Universitas Bangka Belitung) Sulistiana, Ineu; Kustiawan, Elyas; Amelia, Ririn
Eigen Mathematics Journal Vol 6 No 2 (2023): December
Publisher : University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/emj.v6i2.170

Abstract

Student study time is the time needed by students to complete their education, which starts from the time they enter college until they are declared graduated or have completed their study period. In the study period data, survival time observations were only carried out partially or not until the failure event. In other words, termination occurs until the observation deadline. This termination occurred due to several factors that allegedly influenced the student's study period. This study intends to determine what variables influence the study period of students of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Bangka Belitung through survival analysis. Using study period data for students of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Bangka Belitung, class of 2015/2016, this study used the Kaplan Meier Estimation to see the survival function of each factor causing the length of the study period graphically and the Log Rank Test statistically. Meanwhile, to look at the factors that determine the length of a student's study period, researchers used the Cox Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) models to find the best model. The results of the data analysis show that there are differences in the survival function in each category for all variables graphically, while the statistical comparison of the results of the estimation of the survival function curve based on gender and organizational status is not significantly different. The results of the analysis also show that the proportional hazard assumption is fulfilled through the cumulative hazard log so that categorical variables can be used in the Cox Regression model. Based on the results of the likelihood estimation, the variables that have a significant effect on the study period of Engineering Faculty students are majors and GPA variables. Furthermore, from the interpretation of the model parameters, it is obtained that the Hazard Ratio (HR) value for the study period of Mechanical, Mining and Electrical Engineering students is faster than that of Civil Engineering students, while students with GPA ≥ 3.00 have a shorter study period than students with GPA < 3.00.
PENINGKATAN KAPASISTAS GURU DALAM MENGIMPLEMENTASIKAN SOAL SKOLASTIK UTBK KEDALAM SOAL MATA PELAJARAN DI SMA NEGERI 1 BELINYU Prayanti, Baiq Desy Aniska; Kustiawan, Elyas; Sulistiana, Ineu; Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Fahria, Izma; Amelia, Ririn; Humairah, Reni; Afrizal, Aidil Adrianda
Jurnal Abdi Insani Vol 11 No 4 (2024): Jurnal Abdi Insani
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/abdiinsani.v11i4.2125

Abstract

Since 2019, the Computer-Based Written Test (UTBK) has been used as a system for university entrance exams. The TPS (scholastic potential test) and Literacy Test are two slightly different test forms that have been utilized in UTBK from 2023. The sole public senior high school in the Belinyu subdistrict is SMA Negeri 1 Belinyu. Less than 30% of pupils get admitted to state colleges, according to data from 2023. Therefore, the purpose of this service is to tell the teachers of SMA Negeri 1 Belinyu about UTBK and to train them in creating subject questions for the Scholastic test at UTBK. The method of activity carried out in the form of a preparatory stage in the form of observation, theme determination, and partner preparation followed by the implementation stage in the form of preparation of UTBK material and scholastic tests, exposure and evaluation. According to the service's results, 95% of participants believe that their comprehension of UTBK scholastic questions is improving, and they are hopeful that students will find it simpler to handle UTBK questions if scholastic questions are applied to the subject matter. The purpose of this service project is to help the teachers at SMA Negeri 1 Belinyu better comprehend the UTBK academic questions that incoming college students would encounter.
FORECASTING RAINFALL IN PANGKALPINANG CITY USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE WITH EXOGENOUS (SARIMAX) Amelia, Ririn; Kustiawan, Elyas; Sulistiana, Ineu; Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (689.719 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss1pp137-146

Abstract

Changes in extreme rainfall can cause disasters or losses for the wider community, so information about future rainfall is also needed. Rainfall is included in the category of time series data. One of the time series methods that can be used is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA). However, this model only involves one variable without involving its dependence on other variables. One of the factors that can affect rainfall is wind speed which can affect the formation of convective clouds. In this study, the ARIMA model was expanded by adding eXogen variables and seasonal elements, namely the SARIMAX model (Seasonal ARIMA with eXogenous input). Based on the analysis that has been carried out, the prediction of rainfall in Pangkalpinang City, Bangka Belitung Islands Province can be modeled with the SARIMAX model (0,1,3)(0,1,1){12} for monthly rainfall and SARIMAX (0,1,2 )(0,1,3){12} for maximum daily rainfall. When compared with the actual data and previous studies using ARIMAX, the SARIMAX model is still better in the forecasting process when compared to the ARIMAX model. If viewed based on the AIC value of the SARIMA model, the SARIMAX model is also more suitable to be used to predict rainfall in Pangkalpinang City.
PREDICTION OF TIN EXPORTS, POPULATION, POVERTY, AND LABOR FORCE IN THE PROVINCE OF BANGKA BELITUNG ISLANDS Kustiawan, Elyas; Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Vebtasvili, Vebtasvili; Oktarianty, Haslen; Silaban, Yabes Sentosa; Luthfiyah, Fadillah; Rahmania, Dita
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2589-2596

Abstract

The COVID-19 virus has also caused shocks to the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in various sectors, especially the economy. To overcome this problem, of course the government has prepared responsive policies, both fiscal and monetary policies to prevent post-COVID-19 risks, especially in the economic recession. To prevent a post-COVID-19 economic recession, a prediction or time series forecast is needed on four variables that influence the economic recession, namely the number of tin exports, population, poverty and labor force in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province so that economic growth is maintained. This research aims to predict the four research variables by comparing the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing methods. This research also uses Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as indicators of model accuracy. Based on the results of the accuracy indicators of this model, it was found that the Exponential Smoothing method was better than the Moving Average method. The predicted results for the value of tin exports in 2024 are -3.3645811 with The RMSE value is 42293770, MAE is 29558091, and MAPE is 84.46131. The negative value in the tin export prediction means that the decline in the value of tin exports in 2024 will not have a significant effect because it is still within a reasonable figure. The total labor force in 2024 will be 11057.23 with RMSE value is 16536.48, MAE value is 14194.02, and MAPE is 112.8078. Then for population the predicted result is 21241.92 with RMSE is 19537.82, MAE is 11548.41, and MAPE is 37.51894. Then for the predicted results the number of poverty is 70.22749 with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE respectively of 3992.146, 3205.528, and 139.1129. The alpha value used is 0.0183.
VOLATILITY ANALYSIS AND INFLATION PREDICTION IN PANGKALPINANG USING ARCH GARCH MODEL Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Kustiawan, Elyas; -, Khadijah; Halim, Niken; Suhendra, Helen
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp237-244

Abstract

One of the concerns of both developed and developing countries, as well as in a region, is the amount of inflation that occurs. Inflation is a serious problem. Inflation is a macroeconomic variable that affects people's welfare and is defined as a complex phenomenon resulting from general and continuous price increases. This research aims to analyze the volatility and projected value of the inflation rate, especially in Pangkalpinang City, using the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. This research uses time series data on inflation rate of Pangkalpinang, Bangka Belitung Island Province from January 2014 to May 2024. This data was obtained through publications from the Central Statistics Agency of Bangka Beliltung Islands Province. The ARCH model is used to handle heteroscedasticity in data, while the GARCH model is a development of the ARCH model and serves as a generalization of the volatility model. This research shows that the predicted inflation rate in Pangkalpinang City from June 2024 to November 2024 tends to decrease with a MAPE prediction accuracy level of 200.04%. The high MAPE value is caused by actual data moving toward 0.
Perancangan Knowledge Sharing System Untuk Meningkatkan Kinerja Dosen Di Fakultas Teknik Universitas Bangka Belitung Kustiawan, Elyas; Adawiyah, Rodiatul; Wijayanti, Eka Sari
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 10 No 3: Juni 2023
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.2023106490

Abstract

Dosen-dosen baru harus cepat beradaptasi dengan lingkungan pekerjaannya. Namun, adaptasi akan terasa sulit ketika rekan kerja dan senior tidak memberikan ruang diskusi untuk berbagi informasi, pengetahuan dan pengalaman kepada dosen baru. Dengan adanya rencana pembukaan program studi baru di Fakultas Teknik Universitas Bangka Belitung (UBB), mengakibatkan dosen baru harus berada di homebase sementara yang bukan bidang keilmuannya. Kegiatan knowledge sharing hanya dilakukan secara manual dengan cara tatap muka antar dosen dan melalui grup Whatsapp (WA) yang menimbulkan masalah, seperti dosen-dosen sering tidak mendapatkan informasi yang telah disebarkan di grup WA dengan alasan tertimbun oleh pesan-pesan lain. Knowledge sharing membutuhkan suatu teknologi untuk dapat berjalan secara efektif dan efisien. Tujuan dari penelitian ini, yaitu untuk merancang knowledge sharing system (KSS) di Fakultas Teknik UBB. Metode pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara dengan dekan Fakultas Teknik UBB dan kuesioner yang disebar ke 46 dosen Fakultas Teknik UBB. Metode perancangan KSS menggunakan pendekatan berorientasi objek dengan UML Diagram. Metodologi KSS menggunakan gabungan dari dua metode, yaitu model SECI, dan 10-step KM roadmap. Untuk desain aset pengetahuan dan proses validasi rancangan KSS, dilakukan dengan teknik FGD yang mengundang 7 dosen Fakultas Teknik UBB. Kesimpulan dari hasil penelitian ini adalah dokumen rancangan KSS yang telah divalidasi dengan hasil rancangan ini telah diterima dengan baik dan sesuai dengan kebutuhan dari dosen di Fakultas Teknik UBB. Abstract New lecturers must adapt quickly to their workplace. However, adaptation will be difficult when colleagues and seniors do not provide discussion space to share information, knowledge and experiences with new lecturers. With the plan to open a new study program at the Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Bangka Belitung (UBB), new lecturers have to be in a temporary homebase that is not their scientific field. Knowledge sharing activities are only carried out manually by face-to-face meetings between lecturers and through Whatsapp (WA) groups which cause problems, such as lecturers often do not get information through WA group because it is buried by other messages. Knowledge sharing requires a technology to run effectively and efficiently. Purpose of this research is to design a knowledge sharing system (KSS) at the Faculty of Engineering, UBB. Methods of data collection using interviews with the dean and questionnaires distributed to 46 lecturers in the Faculty of Engineering, UBB. The KSS design method uses an object-oriented approach with the UML Diagram. The KSS methodology uses a combination of two methods, which are SECI model, and 10-step KM roadmap. Design of knowledge assets and validating the KSS blueprint carried out using FGD which invited 7 lecturers of the Faculty of Engineering, UBB. The result from this study is the KSS blueprint document that has been validated which has been well received and in accordance with the needs of lecturers at the Faculty of Engineering, UBB.
PEMBERDAYAAN KELOMPOK CINTA LITERASI DAN MAHASISWA CINTA STATISTIK DALAM MENDUKUNG PROGRAM DIGITALISASI DI DESA REBO, KABUPATEN BANGKA Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Rozani, Muhammad; Kustiawan, Elyas; Febiola, Aulia
Jurnal Abdi Insani Vol 11 No 3 (2024): Jurnal Abdi Insani
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/abdiinsani.v11i3.1705

Abstract

The village is a strategic position to support the success of community development programs. Currently, the concept of rural development is no longer limited to the agricultural sector and basic infrastructure but leads to the development of Information and Communication Technology. Rebo Village in general still has several things that have not been managed optimally, especially related to data literacy, such as having a low interest in reading and a lack of good understanding of the importance of improving literacy culture in the community. This service activity aims to explore the sources of potential (assets) owned by the community so that the community is able to solve the problems they face independently. The service scheme through socialization activities to partners aims to provide education about the importance of literacy to all village officials and all residents. This service activity focuses on the formation of a Literacy Love Group (KECIL) at the village level by involving statistical agents and statistical love students. This group can increase the added value of Rebo village towards an independent and creative village. This can be done by managing information and empowering the community. Based on the results of the analysis of the partner satisfaction questionnaire, 65.22% of participants answered that they agreed that the theme of the socialization activities presented was in accordance with the needs of partners and the rest, namely 34.78%, answered very agree. Based on the instrument of clarity and ease of understanding of the material presented by the resource persons, 73.91% answered yes and 26.09% answered strongly agree. In addition, this activity was also felt by partners to be very useful, as evidenced by 69.57% answering yes and 30.43% answering very agreeing. Meanwhile, several participants in the socialization activity gave positive and supportive suggestions for the progress and development of future activities. Based on the entire series of activities that have been carried out, it can be concluded that this service activity can provide its own benefits for partners, as evidenced by the results of the analysis of partner satisfaction questionnaire data in Rebo Village.
SOSIALISASI PEMBERDAYAAN MASYARAKAT BERBASIS DIGITAL DALAM MENGGALI POTENSI DESA MENUJU DESA MANDIRI, UNGGUL DAN PRODUKTIF DI KELURAHAN JELITIK, SUNGAILIAT, BANGKA Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana; Kustiawan, Elyas; Ulum, Miftahul; Simarmata, Andreas Cornel
Jurnal Abdi Insani Vol 11 No 3 (2024): Jurnal Abdi Insani
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/abdiinsani.v11i3.1752

Abstract

Jelitik Village is one of the Villages located in Sungailiat District, Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Islands Province which has considerable tourism potential. This tourism potential can be used to improve the local economy of the community. The development of this tourism potential is also in line with the direction of the Bangka Regency government in the establishment of a Special Economic Zone (KEK) which includes Jelitik Village. This potential should be presented digitally so that it can be accessed by all citizens. This service activity aims to explore the type of potential of the village/sub-district so as to encourage the independence of the community in the village through digital-based community empowerment. Socialization techniques to the community are an option in realizing this service activity by involving all village officials and PKK management in Jelitik Village. In addition, identification and analysis of partner needs are also needed before the implementation of this service activity. The results obtained based on the results of the analysis were that participants tended to give very agreeable and agreed answers about the benefits of the activity, the suitability of the theme, the clarity of the material and the adequacy of the infrastructure used during this service activity and there was one participant who answered disagreeing about the clarity of the material. In addition, from the results of the questionnaire analysis, it can be seen that the highest percentage is at 89%, namely respondents who answered yes to question 1. With the implementation of this socialization, the people of Jelitik are beginning to realize the importance of using digital technology in managing tourism potential. Based on the results of the analysis, with the implementation of this socialization, the people of Jelitik are beginning to realize the importance of using digital technology in managing tourism potential.
PENINGKATAN PEMAHAMAN BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS DAN LEGALITAS USAHA BAGI WOMENPREUNER UNTUK MENDUKUNG KEBERLANJUTAN UMKM DI KOTA PANGKALPINANG Aprilian, Rahil Imainul; Kustiawan, Elyas; Zulkarnain, Ariandi A; Yanto, Yanto; Putra , Agung Rizki
Jurnal Abdi Insani Vol 12 No 10 (2025): Jurnal Abdi Insani
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/abdiinsani.v12i10.2792

Abstract

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a strategic role in driving regional economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and improving community welfare. In Indonesia, the majority of MSME actors are women (womenpreneurs) who are actively involved in various local economic sectors. However, many of these womenpreneurs still face challenges in formulating systematic business plans and fulfilling business legality requirements.This community service activity aims to enhance the understanding of female MSME actors—particularly members of the Persaudaraan Muslimah (Salimah) organization in Pangkalpinang City—in designing business models using the Business Model Canvas (BMC) approach and to increase awareness of the importance of business legality, such as obtaining a Business Identification Number (NIB). The activity was carried out through training, outreach, interactive discussions, and simulations of BMC formulation and legality registration via the Online Single Submission (OSS) system.To assess the effectiveness of the training, pre-tests and post-tests were conducted with the participants. The results showed a significant improvement in participants' understanding of the BMC concept and business legality, as well as a positive change in their attitudes and readiness to apply both to their businesses. Therefore, this activity has proven effective in encouraging womenpreneurs to develop their businesses in a more structured, formal, and sustainable manner through proper business planning and compliance with business regulations.
Co-Authors -, Khadijah Adawiyah, Rodiatul Afrizal, Aidil Adrianda Amelia, Ririn Aprilian, Rahil Imainul Ariandi A Zulkarnain Baiq Desy Aniska Prayanti Desy Yuliana Dalimunthe, Desy Yuliana Fahria, Izma Febiola, Aulia Halim, Niken Humairah, Reni Ineu Sulistiana, Ineu Luthfiyah, Fadillah Miftahul Ulum Oktarianty, Haslen Putra , Agung Rizki Rahmania, Dita Rozani, Muhammad Silaban, Yabes Sentosa Simarmata, Andreas Cornel Suhendra, Helen Vebtasvili Vebtasvili Wijayanti, Eka Sari YANTO YANTO