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All Journal Jurnal Gaussian Prosiding University Research Colloquium Polinomial : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Journal of applied statistics and data mining Jurnal Dharma Indonesia Unnes Journal of Mathematics
Sari, Virgania
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences Other

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PERAMALAN HARGA BERAS PREMIUM BULANAN DI TINGKAT PENGGILINGAN MENGGUNAKAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN Sari, Virgania; Hariyanto, Sylvia Ayu
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 3 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.3.322-329

Abstract

Rice is one of the crucial food commodities in Indonesia whose price fluctuates every year. Forecasting is the science of predicting an event in the future and predicting future conditions using historical data. One of the forecasting methods is the Fuzzy Time Series which is used to predict time series data that can be widely used on any real time data. This research used forecasting with the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method because this method provides a good accuracy value. The historical data used is monthly data on the average price of premium rice at the Indonesian mill level for the period January 2014-July 2022 then divided into training data and testing data. The error rate used is MAPE and the results of calculations with Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain on data testing the period November 2020-July 2022 obtained a very good MAPE value of 0.81%. Forecasting results for the period August 2022 obtained the results of Rp. 9.627,99
Prediksi Jumlah Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kota Semarang dengan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Diana, Arista Fitri; Sakti, Ayutdi Purbo; Sari, Virgania; Romadon, Gilang
Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Mining Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022): Journal Applied Statistics and Data Mining
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63229/jasdm.v3i1.26

Abstract

Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh virus yang dibawa oleh nyamuk Aedes aegypti. Penyakit ini disebabkan oleh salah satu dari empat jenis virus dengue. Dulu, DBD dikenal sebagai penyakit “break-bone” karena dapat menyebabkan nyeri pada sendi dan otot yang terasa seperti tulang retak (Kemenkes, 2019). DBD masih menjadi masalah serius di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, dengan 35 kabupaten/kota yang telah terjangkit penyakit ini. Di Indonesia, kelompok terbanyak yang terkena DBD berada di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan, diikuti oleh Provinsi Jawa Tengah, dan kemudian Provinsi Bengkulu di posisi ketiga (Depkes, 2016). Berdasarkan data dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah, kasus DBD di provinsi ini terus mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan dari tahun 2013 hingga 2015. Tingginya angka kematian akibat DBD menuntut masyarakat untuk tetap waspada terhadap kemungkinan penyebaran penyakit ini di lingkungan mereka. Sangat penting bagi masyarakat untuk secara bersama-sama menciptakan lingkungan yang sehat dan bebas jentik guna mengurangi angka kejadian DBD. Sejak tahun 2006 hingga 2015, angka kejadian (Incident Rate/IR) DBD di Kota Semarang selalu lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan IR DBD di Jawa Tengah dan nasional. Target nasional untuk pencapaian IR DBD adalah ≤ 51 per 100.000 penduduk. Oleh karena itu, penelitian diperlukan untuk memperkirakan jumlah penderita DBD pada tahun-tahun mendatang, agar pemerintah dapat menetapkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi masalah ini. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah ARIMA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama periode 2006-2015, jumlah penderita DBD tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Maret 2010 dengan 1.125 kasus, sedangkan jumlah terendah terjadi pada bulan Oktober 2015 dengan 26 kasus. Rata-rata jumlah penderita DBD tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2010 dengan 463 kasus, sementara rata-rata terendah tercatat pada tahun 2012 dengan 104 kasus. Rata-rata jumlah penderita DBD di Kota Semarang selama periode 2006 hingga 2016 adalah 104 kasus. Model terbaik yang digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah penderita DBD adalah ARIMA (2,1,3), dengan nilai MSE sebesar 0,1947. Prediksi menggunakan model ARIMA (2,1,3) menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2016, jumlah penderita DBD tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Maret, sementara jumlah terendah terjadi pada bulan September.
Penerapan Metode ARIMA-ARCH/GARCH untuk Meramalkan Harga Saham Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk Wulandari, Ratri; Sidik; Sari, Virgania; Laksita, One Triska
Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Mining Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022): Journal Applied Statistics and Data Mining
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Statistika dan Bisnis Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63229/jasdm.v3i1.29

Abstract

Pergerakan harga saham di suatu negara dapat digunakan sebagai indikator untuk menilai kondisi perekonomian negara tersebut. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. adalah salah satu perusahaan rokok terbesar di Indonesia dan termasuk dalam kategori saham blue chip. Saham Sampoerna menawarkan potensi capital gain yang signifikan bila dijadikan investasi jangka panjang. Harga saham umumnya mengikuti fenomena fluktuasi berkelompok atau volatility clustering. Fenomena ini terjadi ketika harga aset finansial mengalami perubahan drastis selama periode tertentu, sementara pada periode lainnya harga tetap stabil. Volatilitas sering ditandai dengan fase fluktuasi tinggi yang kemudian diikuti oleh periode fluktuasi rendah, dan kembali meningkat. Untuk data time series yang menunjukkan variasi fluktuatif, model yang digunakan adalah ARCH/GARCH. Penelitian ini menggunakan data harga saham PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. dari Januari 2017 hingga Desember 2020, dengan nilai tertinggi tercatat pada tahun 2018. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik adalah ARIMA (1,1,1) ARCH (1), yang memprediksi penutupan harga saham pada 4 Januari 2021 mengalami keuntungan sebesar 1504 dengan nilai error 11.
Peningkatan Kapasitas Masyarakat Peri-urban Kota Semarang dalam Pengolahan Sampah Organik Rumah Tangga Fariz, Trida Ridho; Marianti, Aditya; Susilo, Bambang Eko; Wahyuni, Siti; Widiarti, Nuni; Sukaesih, Sri; Al Hakim, M. Faris; Sari, Virgania; Maulana, Faith Miftah; Setiyanda, Karista Gadis
Jurnal Dharma Indonesia Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Dharma Indonesia
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jdi.v3i2.24763

Abstract

The peri-urban area of Semarang City, particularly Pakintelan Village, Gunungpati District, has experienced rapid residential growth over the past decade. However, this growth has not been accompanied by adequate waste management infrastructure, especially for household organic waste. Many residents still dispose of or burn organic waste such as food scraps and vegetables, which negatively impacts the environment and public health. To address this issue, this community service initiative aimed to enhance residents' capacity to process organic waste into environmentally friendly and economically valuable products. The methodology involved in-depth interviews with neighborhood leaders to identify key issues, followed by a literature review to develop educational materials, and concluded with practical training on producing eco-enzyme from household kitchen waste. The program ran smoothly and received enthusiastic participation from the community. Residents showed a strong interest in applying eco-enzyme production in their daily lives. Moving forward, further research is recommended on developing a community-based organic waste management system, as not all residents have the space or time to process waste independently
Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Atas Dasar Harga Konstan Menurut Lapangan Usaha Menggunakan Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Arifah, Mariskha Nurmalia Reziana; Sari, Virgania
Prosiding University Research Colloquium Proceeding of The 16th University Research Colloquium 2022: Bidang MIPA dan Kesehatan
Publisher : Konsorsium Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Perguruan Tinggi Muhammadiyah 'Aisyiyah (PTMA) Koordinator Wilayah Jawa Tengah - DIY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Salah satu indikator penting untuk mengetahui kondisi suatu daerah dalam suatu periode tertentu adalah data Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), baik atas dasar harga berlaku (ADHB) maupun atas dasar harga konstan (ADHK). PDRB Provinsi Lampung berada diurutan keempat se-Sumatera yang kaya akan sumber daya alam nya dan selalu mengalami peningkatan di setiap tahunnya, yang akan mempengaruhi perekonomian di wilayahnya. Metode Weighted Fuzzy Time Series (WFTS) Lee merupakan pengembangan dari metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) dengan penambahan pembobotan pada tiap pola relasi yang terbentuk. Berdasarkan hasil analisis diperoleh peramalan untuk data PDRB ADHK menurut Lapangan Usaha Provinsi Lampung triwulan-I 2011 sampai dengan triwulan-I 2022 dengan menerapkan konstanta (c) 1 <= c <= 2 diperoleh konstanta pembobot terbaik yaitu c = 11, MAPE Training 1,45% dan Mape Testing sebesar 4,51% yang berarti model memiliki kinerja sangat bagus. Dari hasil tersebut, diperoleh hasil peramalan untuk triwulan-II dan triwulan-III tahun 2022 yaitu sebesar 64.114.284,88 (dalam jutaan Rupiah) dan 66.055.951,44 (dalam jutaan rupiah).
Inflation Forecasting in Indonesia Using Lee’s Fuzzy Time Series Method Sari, Virgania
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): Unnes Journal of Mathematics Volume 1, 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v14i1.14215

Abstract

Inflation is an important economic indicator, the rate of growth is should be low and stable. Unstable inflation will complicate people's decisions to consume, invest and produce which in turn will reduce economic growth. One of the effects of this inflation is slow economic growth. For this reason, the government needs to consider policies that can influence it. Bank Indonesia one of the policies to control inflation is monetary. Forecasting methods are used to help facilitate future planning and can be used as guidelines for decision making that can improve economic performance. Forecasting used is fuzzy time series Lee. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for the period January 2017-May 2022. The error rate used is MAPE which produces a very good MAPE value of 8,16%. Forecasting results for the next period, June 2022, amounted to 3,66%.
Kemampuan Pemecahan Masalah Matematis Siswa Kelas X Ditinjau dari Self-Regulated Learning pada Model Creative Problem Solving Berbantuan Aplikasi Cymath Aulia, Nurul Fajriyah Rizqi; Sari, Virgania
Polinomial : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Papanda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56916/jp.v5i1.3686

Abstract

Mathematical problem-solving skills are important in mathematics learning, but these skills have not been optimally developed in 10th grade students at SMK Negeri 3 Semarang. One factor that is thought to play a role is Self-Regulated Learning. In addition, the application of appropriate learning models and media is needed, one of which is through the Creative Problem Solving model assisted by the Cymath application. This study aims to: (1) determine the difference in mathematical problem-solving skills between students who participate in Creative Problem Solving learning assisted by the Cymath application and direct learning; (2) to determine the effect of Self-Regulated Learning on students' mathematical problem-solving skills in Creative Problem Solving learning assisted by the Cymath application; and (3) to describe students' mathematical problem-solving skills in terms of Self-Regulated Learning. The research method used is a mixed method with a sequential explanatory design. The research population consisted of 10th grade students at SMK Negeri 3 Semarang in the 2025/2026 academic year, with subjects selected using purposive sampling techniques. Data analysis included testing the validity of research tools and instruments, quantitative data analysis in the form of normality tests, homogeneity tests, two-mean difference tests, and simple linear regression tests, as well as qualitative data analysis covering data validity, data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. The results showed that there was a difference in mathematical problem-solving abilities between students who participated in Creative Problem Solving learning assisted by the Cymath application and students who participated in direct learning. In addition, Self-Regulated Learning had an effect on students' mathematical problem-solving abilities. Students with high Self-Regulated Learning were able to meet all problem-solving indicators, students with moderate Self-Regulated Learning were not yet able to recheck the results, while students with low Self-Regulated Learning were not yet able to plan, implement, and recheck problem solving.
Peningkatan Kemampuan Penalaran Matematis Siswa melalui Model Learning Cycle 7E Berbantuan Aplikasi Symbolab Fidianti, Serli; Sari, Virgania
Polinomial : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Papanda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56916/jp.v5i1.3687

Abstract

Mathematical reasoning skills are one of the important skills that need to be developed in mathematics learning because they play a role in helping students understand concepts, construct arguments, and draw conclusions logically. However, mathematics learning in schools still tends to focus on procedures and routine exercises, so that students' mathematical reasoning skills have not developed optimally. One alternative learning method that can be applied is the 7E Learning Cycle model assisted by the Symbolab application. This study aims to determine the achievement of learning completeness and the improvement of students' mathematical reasoning skills through the 7E Learning Cycle model assisted by the Symbolab application. This is a quantitative study conducted on 11th grade students at SMK Negeri 3 Semarang. Data were collected using a mathematical reasoning skills test and analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that learning with the 7E Learning Cycle model assisted by the Symbolab application achieved classical learning completeness from the predetermined Actual Completion Limit (BTA) of 42,3. In addition, students' mathematical reasoning skills increased from an average score of 39.76 to 70.67, with an N-gain score of 0.5131, which is in the moderate category. Thus, learning with the 7E Learning Cycle model assisted by the Symbolab application shows an increase in students' mathematical reasoning abilities.
Co-Authors Aditya Marianti Al Hakim, M. Faris Arifah, Mariskha Nurmalia Reziana Aulia, Nurul Fajriyah Rizqi Bambang Eko Susilo Diana, Arista Fitri Fidianti, Serli Hariyanto, Sylvia Ayu Laksita, One Triska Maulana, Faith Miftah Nuni Widiarti Ratri Wulandari Romadon, Gilang Sakti, Ayutdi Purbo Setiyanda, Karista Gadis Sidik Siti Wahyuni Sri Sukaesih Trida Ridho Fariz