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Time Series Model Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method For Inflation In Indonesia Safwandi
Jurnal Investasi Islam Vol 8 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Investasi Islam
Publisher : FEBI IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jii.v8i1.5891

Inflation are related to changes in the price of an item that have the potential to change the market in the short term and create a certain monetary policy. Inflation data tends to fluctuate from time to time, so it is interesting to make useful predictions to provide information on future inflation rates. The consumer price index indicator, which is the best benchmark for inflation, is the main inflation indicator. This research focuses on time series modeling using the autoregressive integrated and moving average (ARIMA) method. Fluctuating data results in the desired model determination and forecasting is carried out so that it is likely to occur in the future. The results showed that inflation predictions for the period January 2010 to December 2022 were obtained using the autoarima model (0,1,1)(1,0,2)[12] with an error value of MAPE 6.61%, RMSE of 0.42 with a p-test level value α=5%. From the prediction results, it is obtained that the average in the first quarter is 5.44% in the coming year and gradually decreases with a range of 3% - 4%.

Sistem Pemungutan Pajak Kendaraan secara Online, Offline, dan Sanksi Perpajakan terhadap Kepatuhan Membayar Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor di Kota Langsa bin Mustafa, Fakhrizal; Safwandi; Ramadandi Isni
Jurnal Investasi Islam Vol 8 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Investasi Islam
Publisher : FEBI IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jii.v8i1.5892

Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh sistem pemungutan pajak kendaraan secara online, offline dan sanksi perpajakan terhadap kepatuhan membayar pajak kendaraan bermotor di Kota Langsa. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan analisis model regresi berganda. Data penelitian berupa data primer yang diperoleh dari responden dengan menggunakan instrumen pengumpulan data berupa kuesioner. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua wajib pajak kendaraan bermotor dimana sampel diambil pada wajib pajak pemilik motor dari tahun 2015 ke atas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sistem pemungutan pajak kendaraan secara online berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kepatuhan membayar pajak kendaraan bermotor di Kota Langsa. Sementara sistem pemungutan pajak kendaraan secara offline berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap kepatuhan membayar pajak kendaraan bermotor di Kota Langsa. Untuk sanksi perpajakan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kepatuhan membayar pajak kendaraan bermotor di Kota Langsa. Secara simultan pengaruh sistem pemungutan pajak kendaraan secara online, offline dan sanksi perpajakan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kepatuhan membayar pajak kendaraan bermotor di Kota Langsa. Sistem pemungutan pajak secara online dapat menjadi alternatif terbaik dalam pelayanan bagi wajib pajak.

Model Time Series untuk Meramalkan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Aceh Safwandi; Zefri Maulana
Jurnal Investasi Islam Vol 9 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Investasi Islam
Publisher : FEBI IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jii.v9i1.8868

Poverty tends to occur in developing countries, including Indonesia. Poverty is a complex problem and requires a comprehensive approach in efforts to eradicate it. Handling poverty must be carried out appropriately and cover various aspects of people's lives. The negative impacts of poverty not only affect people's welfare, but also hinder economic development in the long term. Poverty has a negative effect on the economy and social welfare. To determine the prediction of poverty levels, one approach that can be taken is a time series model (time series). In this research, method Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used for analysis and forecasting poverty levels. So that it can provide insight into poverty behavior and take appropriate steps both in controlling and alleviating poverty. ARIMA is a time series forecasting method that is suitable for forecasting various variables quickly, simply, cheaply and accurately. The research results show that the poverty rate for the next three years (2024-2026) is 14.17%, 13.93% and 13.72%, respectively. The ARIMA model is proven to be able to provide fairly accurate predictions and follow actual trends, making it useful for forecasting. The ARIMA(1,1,1) model can be used as a reference for future forecasting. The process of forecasting poverty levels does not only focus on predicting statistical figures, but also includes an in-depth analysis of the factors that cause poverty and the economic dynamics that influence it. This allows the government to develop policies that are more effective and responsive to social and economic changes occurring in society.

Peranan Pengelolaan Keuangan Badan Usaha Milik Kampung dalam Meningkatkan Perekonomian Masyarakat Kampung Paya Kulbi Sugama, Yoga; Yahya, M.; Safwandi
JIM: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Vol 6, No 1 (2024): April 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jim.v6i1.6823

Village development must also be pursued in order to improve the economy towards the quality of life and welfare of the community. One way to accelerate the economic growth of the Village Community is to establish a Village-Owned Enterprise (BUMK). Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK) have a very important financial management role in the form of Village Funds. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of Financial Management of Village-Owned Enterprises, factors that influence Village-Owned Enterprises and obstacles to Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK) in improving the economy of Paya Kulbi Village, Karang Baru District. This research method uses a Descriptive Qualitative Approach Research type. Research data collected based on the results of observations, interviews and documentation. Data Analysis Tools used are Data Reduction, Data Presentation and Conclusion Drawing. The results of this study indicate that the financial management of the Baguna Village-Owned Business Entity goes through the Planning stage, which is carried out through the building planning deliberation meeting according to the Basic Budget. Implementation is carried out by making proposals until business activities run. Administration is carried out by writing and recording financial reports in the daily cash book. Financial reporting accountability is carried out twice a year. Supervision is carried out in the form of guidance from the District Office and Datok Penghulu

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM USING WEIGHTED PRODUCT METHOD IN CHIPS MATERIAL SELECTION (CASE STUDY: HASTI FAMILY CHIPS BUSINESS) Luqman Nul Hakim; Safwandi; Risawandi
Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue (MORFAI) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): Multidiciplinary Output Research For Actual and International Issue
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/morfai.v4i4.2406

This study designs a decision support system to help the owner of the Hasti Family chips business choose the optimal raw materials in making cassava, banana, and breadfruit chips. The Weighted Product (WP) method is used as a multi-criteria decision-making method by considering criteria such as chip color, chip texture, chip taste, chip durability and fruit price. Criteria data and alternative raw materials are processed using WP calculations to produce the best alternative ranking. The result is a web-based decision support system that implements the WP method, presents an interface for entering data and displays the best alternative ranking. This system improves the efficiency of decision-making, minimizes the risk of selecting inappropriate raw materials, improves product quality, and supports business growth. The results of the research on the decision support system for selecting chips ingredients show that this system determines the best ingredients by finding the final value of the V vector search from 3 cassava data, 3 banana data and 3 breadfruit data that will be entered into the system and get results from butter cassava, which has the highest V value of 0.38311467, followed by wak banana with an impressive V value of 0.398763354, and Bali breadfruit, which has a prominent V value of 0.350015233. The conclusion of this study is that the designed application is able to optimize the process of selecting raw materials for chip production more efficiently, quickly, and this system not only accelerates decision making but also ensures more structured and reliable data recording.

Rancang Bangun Sistem Pakar Berbasis Website untuk Rekomendasi Pengobatan Penyakit Secara Herbal Menggunakan Metode Forward Chaining Nisak, Fazlun; Safwandi; Maryana
Jurnal Pendidikan dan Teknologi Indonesia Vol 5 No 9 (2025): JPTI - September 2025
Publisher : CV Infinite Corporation

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jpti.1025

Indonesia memiliki keanekaragaman hayati yang mencakup berbagai jenis tumbuhan yang berpotensi menjadi obat herbal. Namun, masih banyak orang yang belum mengenal berbagai jenis tanaman herbal dan efektivitasnya dalam menyembuhkan penyakit. Sebagai hasilnya, mereka lebih cenderung memilih obat-obatan kimia yang berisiko menimbulkan lebih banyak efek samping daripada obat herbal. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menciptakan sebuah sistem pakar berbasis web yang sederhana, cepat, mudah diakses, dan dapat digunakan kapan saja sehingga memudahkan masyarakat dalam memilih obat herbal. Sistem dikembangkan dengan metode Forward Chaining, yang memungkinkan untuk menarik kesimpulan dari gejala menuju diagnosis penyakit serta rekomendasi pengobatan yang tepat. Penelitian ini menghasilkan sebuah sistem pakar yang bisa membantu pengguna dalam mengidentifikasi penyakit berdasarkan gejala serta memberikan saran pengobatan herbal yang sesuai dan mudah dimengerti. Pengembangan sistem ini memberikan dampak positif bagi masyarakat dalam beberapa aspek. Pertama, sistem ini meningkatkan kesadaran dan pengetahuan masyarakat mengenai penggunaan tanaman obat sebagai alternatif pengobatan yang lebih aman dan minim efek samping dibandingkan obat kimia. Kedua, sistem ini mendukung pelestarian dan pemanfaatan kekayaan hayati Indonesia, khususnya tanaman obat tradisional. Ketiga, penerapan teknologi informasi melalui sistem pakar ini memperkuat integrasi antara pengobatan tradisional dan inovasi digital, sehingga dapat mendukung layanan kesehatan berbasis kearifan lokal secara lebih luas dan berkelanjutan.

Pemodelan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar: Implikasi Praktis Melalui Pendekatan Regresi Linear Dan Nonlinear Safwandi; M. Yahya; Muhammad Riza; Muhammad Dayyan
IHTIYATH : Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Syariah Vol 9 No 1 (2025): Ihtiyath : Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Syariah
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/ihtiyath.v9i1.12426

Penelitian ini mengkaji tren nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat (IDR/USD) dengan tujuan memodelkan pola jangka menengah secara efektif menggunakan model regresi linier dan nonlinier. Nilai tukar menunjukkan volatilitas jangka pendek yang signifikan, yang menjadi tantangan utama dalam pemodelan, sehingga diperlukan pendekatan yang mampu menangkap tren mendasar di luar fluktuasi sementara. Metode penelitian mencakup analisis tren nilai tukar menggunakan regresi linier dan nonlinier, pengujian signifikansi koefisien regresi, serta evaluasi kemampuan model dalam menjelaskan variasi data yang diamati dan memproyeksikan tren jangka menengah. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model regresi kuadratik berhasil menjelaskan sekitar 70,9% variasi nilai tukar, dengan koefisien kuadrat yang signifikan secara statistik, menandakan percepatan dalam tren kenaikan Rupiah terhadap Dolar selama periode pengamatan. Temuan ini menegaskan efektivitas model kuadratik untuk memproyeksikan tren jangka menengah, meskipun model ini memiliki keterbatasan dalam menangani volatilitas jangka pendek. Implikasi dari penelitian ini sangat relevan bagi perumusan kebijakan moneter dan pengelolaan risiko valuta asing, khususnya dalam merancang strategi stabilisasi nilai tukar yang lebih adaptif terhadap dinamika pasar. Selain itu, studi ini merekomendasikan pengembangan model komplementer untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi volatilitas jangka pendek, sehingga memungkinkan perencanaan kebijakan dan strategi manajemen risiko yang lebih responsif dan berbasis data empiris.

Strategy In Preventing Financial Distress: Resolution Of Problem Financing At Bank Aceh Syariah Branch Peureulak Aceh Ulya, Zikriatul; Safwandi; Sarita Ulfia; Muarif Setiawan; Zulhilmi
J-EBIS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam) Vol,10 No 1 (2025)
Publisher : IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/j-ebis.v10i1.10962

This study discusses the strategy of resolving problematic financing in preventing financial distress at Bank Aceh Syariah sub-branch peureulak, the problems presented in this study are, the level of financing problems in Bank Aceh Syariah sub-branch of peureulak how to solve problematic financing in preventing financial distress at Bank Aceh Syariah Peureulak auxiliary branch, what decisions are taken in the settlement of problematic financing, what are the strategies in the settlement of problematic financing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the strategy for resolving problematic financing in preventing financial distress at Bank Aceh Syariah sub-branch peureulak with a process hierarchy analysis method. This research method is the positive qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The results of this study show that the alternative priority of problematic financing settlement strategies in preventing financial distress at Bank Aceh Syariah sub-branch peureulak from the results of the assessment of 3 criteria, 5 sub-criteria, and 4 alternatives based on the results of the analysis of AHP using expert choice The highest priority strategy is to close and sell one or more business units (0.293), then the second strategy priority is the extension of the credit schedule (0.280), and the third strategy is to reduce profits (0.231). In conclusion, the priority of alternative strategies for resolving problematic financing in preventing financial distress at Bank Aceh Syariah sub-branch of peureulak from the results of the assessment of 3 criteria, 5 sub-criteria, and 4 alternatives based on the results of the analysis using expert choice obtained is the highest priority of the third-party fund dependency strategy with an inconsistency value of 0.05< 0.1 interpreted as consistent. The recommendation for banks is to strengthen risk analysis and financing restructuring policies, while for customers, it is recommended to be cooperative in following financing rescue policies so that business sustainability is maintained and the risk of financial distress can be minimized.

Peranan Pengelolaan Keuangan Badan Usaha Milik Kampung dalam Meningkatkan Perekonomian Masyarakat Kampung Paya Kulbi Sugama, Yoga; Yahya, M.; Safwandi
JIM: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Vol 6, No 1 (2024): April 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jim.v6i1.6823

Village development must also be pursued in order to improve the economy towards the quality of life and welfare of the community. One way to accelerate the economic growth of the Village Community is to establish a Village-Owned Enterprise (BUMK). Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK) have a very important financial management role in the form of Village Funds. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of Financial Management of Village-Owned Enterprises, factors that influence Village-Owned Enterprises and obstacles to Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMK) in improving the economy of Paya Kulbi Village, Karang Baru District. This research method uses a Descriptive Qualitative Approach Research type. Research data collected based on the results of observations, interviews and documentation. Data Analysis Tools used are Data Reduction, Data Presentation and Conclusion Drawing. The results of this study indicate that the financial management of the Baguna Village-Owned Business Entity goes through the Planning stage, which is carried out through the building planning deliberation meeting according to the Basic Budget. Implementation is carried out by making proposals until business activities run. Administration is carried out by writing and recording financial reports in the daily cash book. Financial reporting accountability is carried out twice a year. Supervision is carried out in the form of guidance from the District Office and Datok Penghulu

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