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All Journal CEMARA Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness) Agro Ekonomi Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIMMU) Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal Agriecobis : Journal of Agricultural Socioeconomics and Business Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis An-Nafah: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Keislaman
YAFI, MUHAMMAD ALI
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Agro Ekonomi

 1 
Modelling the Relationship between Rice Price, Rice Production, Exchange Rate, and Rice Import in Indonesia Yafi, Muhammad Ali; Adyanti, Amanda Sekar; Purwanti, Amanda Anggi
Agro Ekonomi Vol 36 (2025): ARTICLE IN PRESS
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ae.100774

Abstract

Rice is a strategic food commodity for Indonesia. Most Indonesians, 95 percent consume rice as their staple food. However, Indonesia still imports rice to fulfil its domestic rice needs. Dependence on imports is neither good for the short term nor the long term. The purpose of this study is to see the relationship of rice price, rice production, exchange rate to Indonesia's rice import. The data used is time series data with monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2023 taken from ITC Trade Map, Central Statistic Agency, and Bank Indonesia. The analysis method uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach that can provide short-term and long-term information through several tests. The results showed that in the long run the exchange rate and rice production have a negative influence on rice imports. While in the short term, the variables that affect rice imports are the import variable itself and the price of rice in the previous 2 periods, as well as rice production in 1 previous period. The significant influence of rice production requires the government to pay attention to the stock and the amount of imports in balance. Exchange rate, rice price, and rice production variables respond relatively quickly to rice imports. The rice import variable has a large enough proportion in influencing itself followed by the exchange rate, and rice production which has a greater influence each period. 
Predictive Trends of Major Food Prices in Indonesia: A Deep Learning Approach to Time Series Forecasting Yafi, Muhammad Ali; Maharani, Mutiara Ria Despita; Nabilla, Nur Afra; Adyanti, Amanda Sekar
Agro Ekonomi Vol 36 (2025): ARTICLE IN PRESS
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics Faculty of Agriculture Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ae.104454

Abstract

Price uncertainty in food commodities will have an impact on people's food consumption. Prediction of future prices is necessary to serve as a policy reference in overcoming price fluctuations. The purpose of the study is to predict the price of major agricultural food in Indonesia in 2023-2029. The research uses time series data from 1990-2022 with price variables of corn, onion red chilli, beef, and chicken. The analytical tool used to answer the research objectives is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results of the analysis obtained the best model for predicting price forecasts, namely ARIMA on corn commodities (1,1,0), shallots (2,1,0), red chillies (1,1,0), beef (0,1,1), and chicken meat (1,1,1). The results of the prediction of the price of Indonesia's food needs in 2023-2029 as a whole tend to increase.
Co-Authors Adetya, Aulia Adyanti, Amanda Sekar Amir Mahmud Erwidodo Erwidodo, Erwidodo Maharani, Mutiara Ria Despita Nabilla, Nur Afra Purwanti, Amanda Anggi Suharno Suharno Zaini Tamin AR, Zaini Tamin