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PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN ASING DENGAN MODEL ARIMA Rahmat Hidayat; Besse Helmi Mustawinar
Infinity: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasinya Vol. 2 No. 2 (2022): Terbitan Keempat-2022
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Fakultas Sains Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/27458326-100

Sebagai salah satu komoditi ekspor yang tidak dapat dilihat secara nyata, peran pariwisata semakin meningkat dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Dalam mengembangkan pariwisata internasional sangat diperlukan program yang terarah dan tepat dalam rangka meningkatkan jumlah kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara (wisman). Untuk meningkatkan kegiatan pemasaran, diperlukan perencanaan yang sesuai berdasarkan informasi kuantitatif dan kualitatif tentang wisman pada masamasa sebelumnya. Dengan adanya pandemi Covid-19 yang melanda Indonesia sejak awal tahun 2020, informasi tentang wisman semakin diperlukan sebagai bahan evaluasi dan perencanaan pembangunan di masa yang akan datang. Tidak tersedianya data pada masa lalu akan menyulitkan dalam membuat rencana yang cermat dan terarah. Data statistik yang disajikan dalam publikasi ini dimaksudkan untuk memenuhi salah satu kebutuhan tersebut. Studi ini memodelkan jumlah wisatawan asing yang datang ke Indonesia model ARIMA. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa model yang memenuhi syarat signifikansi parameter, residual white noise dan berdistribusi normal adalah ARIMA (1,1,0).

PENERAPAN FUZZY TIME SERIES DALAM MERAMALKAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN DI MASA PANDEMI COVID19 BESSE HELMI MUSTAWINAR; NURUL FUADY ADHALIA H; MARWAN SAM
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 3 (2022)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2022.v11.i03.p374

Tourism is one of Indonesia’s assets to promote economic growth. This sector became one of the largest contributors to national foreign exchange. The number of foreign tourist visits is an indicator of the contribution of tourism which has experiencing the upward trend in annually until the Covid19 happened. In this study, forecasting the number of foreign tourists is needed as a plan to improve the quality of tourism during the pandemic. We used Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng method. The actual data processed comes from the Central Statistics Agency from April 2020 through December 2021. Based on forecasting results, the performance of the forecasting model is in the very good category with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is 5.06%. It means that our predictions are on average 5.06% away from the actual values they were aiming for. In other side, we have forecasting accuracy value is 94.94% which means that the forecast values were close to the actual. Keywords: Tourist, FTS, Cheng Methods

Prediksi Harga Minyak Dunia Dengan Fuzzy Time Series Ramadhani, Muta’ Alya; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi; Arifanti, Dwi Risky; Yuliani, Yuliani
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3471

The government uses economic growth as a metric to measure prosperity and the effectiveness of economic development. However, oil price fluctuations can increase inflation through increasing fuel prices and have an impact on the world economy, including Indonesia. This research will apply a fuzzy time series using the Cheng method to predict world oil prices. The results of this research show that the MAPE value for forecasting world oil prices using the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method is 2%, which means the forecasting model has very good value.

Modeling of The Number of Tourists with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Recurrent Artificial Neural Network: Pemodelan Jumlah Wisatawan dengan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average dan Recurrent Artificial Neural Network Hidayat, Rahmat; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2022): Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v7i1.262

Tourism has become a priority area for Indonesia's economic development. Tourism is expected to be one of the main drivers of Indonesia's economic growth through job and business creation, foreign currency earnings and infrastructure development. In addition, tourism can be used to introduce the identity and culture of the community. Therefore, tourism development will continue and increase through the expansion and utilization of national tourism resources and possibilities. In this study, the number of foreign tourist arrivals will be predicted using the ARIMA model and the Elman-RNN model, given that the pattern of tourist arrivals is not always linear. The data used is the data from the survey results of the Central Statistics Agency. The data is divided into two parts, namely in-sample data and out-sample data. Of the two models, the model of the Elman-RNN network is the best model with the smallest MAPE and RSME values.

PENDAMPINGAN DESIGN DAN LABELLING PRODUCT BAGI PELAKU USAHA PEMULA DAN USAHA MIKRO KECIL DAN MENENGAH (UMKM) DI LUWU RAYA Nurasia Nurasia; Besse Helmi Mustawinar; Sukarti Sukarti
Jurnal Abdimas Indonesia Vol. 1 No. 2 (2021): Agustus 2021
Publisher : Perkumpulan Dosen Muslim Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53769/jai.v1i2.63

Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk mengadakan pendampingan design dan labelling product bagi pelaku usaha pemula dan Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) di Luwu Raya. Target khusus yang diharapkan dari kegiatan ini adalah memberikan pemahaman bagi kelompok Pelaku Usaha Pemula; dan Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) di Luwu Raya, terutama dalam design produk dan labeling sehingga mampu secara mandiri mengembangkan usahanya dengan memperhatikan kepentingan konsumen dan minat pasar. Kegiatan ini dilakukan selama 2 bulan secara daring; dimana pada kegiatan abdimas ini terdiri atas kegiatan pelatihan design dan labeling produk selama 2 hari dan selebihnya dilakukan pendampingan pembuatan nama usaha khusus bagi usaha pemula, perbaikan label dan design produk bagi UMKM secara daring. Hasil kegiatan ini berupa design dan label produk usaha bagi pengusaha pemula dan UMKM; dan Jurnal Nasional.

Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Berbasis Website Pada Kantor Desa Seba-Seba Kabupaten Luwu Musdalipa, Musdalipa; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi; Rusmala, Rusmala
Journal Artificial: Informatika dan Sistem Informasi Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): April 2025
Publisher : Pustaka Digital Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54065/artificial.579

Urgensi penelitian ini terletak pada kebutuhan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan transparansi dalam pelayanan administrasi di Kantor Desa Seba-Seba, yang selama ini masih bergantung pada metode konvensional yang memakan waktu dan seringkali tidak efektif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan sistem informasi berbasis website bagi Kantor Desa Seba-Seba. Jenis penelitian yang diterapkan adalah Research and Development (R&D) dengan pendekatan metode waterfall. Dalam proses pengumpulan data, digunakan teknik observasi, wawancara, serta studi pustaka. Model sistem dirancang menggunakan Unified Modeling Language (UML), mencakup use case diagram, activity diagram, dan class diagram. Sistem informasi yang dihasilkan dibangun menggunakan Framework CodeIgniter, dengan bahasa pemrograman PHP, serta didukung oleh XAMPP sebagai webserver dan MySQL sebagai basis data. Web browser digunakan untuk mengakses sistem ini. Pengujian dilakukan menggunakan teknik Black Box, dan hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa seluruh halaman serta tombol berfungsi dengan baik. Sistem telah diimplementasikan dalam bentuk website dan siap digunakan. Hasil evaluasi dari ahli menunjukkan nilai rata-rata 5, yang jika dikonversikan ke dalam kategori predikat, termasuk dalam tingkat “Baik Sekali.” Dengan demikian, website ini telah memenuhi kelayakan penggunaan.

Prediksi Harga Minyak Dunia Dengan Fuzzy Time Series Ramadhani, Muta’ Alya; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi; Arifanti, Dwi Risky; Yuliani, Yuliani
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3471

The government uses economic growth as a metric to measure prosperity and the effectiveness of economic development. However, oil price fluctuations can increase inflation through increasing fuel prices and have an impact on the world economy, including Indonesia. This research will apply a fuzzy time series using the Cheng method to predict world oil prices. The results of this research show that the MAPE value for forecasting world oil prices using the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method is 2%, which means the forecasting model has very good value.

Analisis Faktor Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Menggunakan Principal Component Analysis di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Ramadhani, Muta' Alya; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi; Daming, Ahmad Syukur
Venn: Journal of Sustainable Innovation on Education, Mathematics and Natural Sciences Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): Matematika, IPA, dan Pembelajarannya
Publisher : Pusat Studi Bahasa dan Publikasi Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53696/venn.v4i3.318

This study aims to identify the main factors that influence the Human Development Index in South Sulawesi Province and group variables on the factors formed by the Principal Component Analysis method. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the official website of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of South Sulawesi Province with the unit of observation, namely 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province in 2024. The data was analyzed using the Principal Component Analysis method by reducing the dimensions of large and correlated data into small and uncorrelated dimensions. The results showed that of the nine variables analyzed, two main components were identified that contributed to the formation of the Human Development Index in South Sulawesi Province in 2024, namely the first human quality of life factor with the largest eigenvalue of 3.948 (56.405%), and the second economic and employment factor with an eigenvalue of 1.243 (17.76%). The main factor is interpreted as the quality of human life factor, as it consists of variables most influenced by Expected Years of Schooling (0.875), followed by Average Years of Schooling (0.868), and Life Expectancy (0.772). Meanwhile, the supporting factors were identified as economic and labor factors, which include Labor Force Participation Rate (0.777), Gross Regional Domestic Product (0.735), Per Capita Expenditure (0.726), and Open Unemployment Rate (0.681).

Identifikasi Gugus Fungsi Senyawa Hasil Ekstraksi Limbah Kulit Batang Sagu (Metroxylon sagu Rottb L.) dengan Deep Eutectic Solvents Oksalin Menggunakan Spektroskopi FT-IR Hamdani, Ulfah Zakiyah; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi; Yanti, Rosmalah; Hamdani, Nurul Fuady Adhalia
Jambura Journal of Chemistry Vol 6, No 2 (2024): August
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jambchem.v6i2.23252

FT-IR spectrum analysis of sago bark waste extract (Metroxylon sagu Rottb L.) which was extracted using deep eutectic solvents (DES) Choline Chloride-Oxalic Acid (Oxaline) has been conducted. DES synthesis was carried out by stirring a number of constituent masses according to the molar ratio at 600 rpm while heating at 60°C. The variation in the molar ratio of DES Oxaline constituents applied were 1:1; 1:1.5; 1:2 and 1:4. Extraction of sago bark waste was carried out by 30 minutes sonication of sago bark waste powder with DES Oxaline solvent at 50W. The sonication results were then centrifuged at 4000 rpm for 35 minutes. The residue was obtained from centrifuge filtration using 1Î¼m filter paper. The synthesized DES Oxaline and its residues were analyzed using FT-IR spectrometry. DES Oxaline which was successfully synthesized were molar ratios of 1:1; 1:1.5 and 1:2. The yield of sago bark waste extracted were 66%; 66% and 62% for 1:1 molar ratio; 1:1.5 and 1:2 respectively. FT-IR spectrum analysis showed that the functional groups of Choline Chloride and Oxalic Acid are depicted in the IR spectrum of Oxaline DES. The residue spectrum analysis stated that the majority of functional groups were representative of lignin.

Pemberdayaan Ibu Rumah Tangga dalam Optimalisasi Lahan Kosong Sebagai Upaya Pendukung Ketahanan Pangan di Masa Pandemi Covid 19 Kelurahan Songka Kota Palopo Wardi, Ridha Yulyani; Nurasia, Nurasia; Mustawinar, Besse Helmi
Jurnal IPMAS Vol. 1 No. 3 (2021): September - Desember
Publisher : Pustaka Digital Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54065/ipmas.1.3.2021.101

Kegiatan Pemberdayaan Ibu Rumah Tangga (IRT) dalam mengoptimalkan lahan kosong sebagai upaya mendukung ketahanan pangan di masa pandemi Covid 19 di Desa Songka Kota Palopo ini bertujuan untuk memberikan pemahaman dan motivasi kepada para ibu rumah tangga yang tinggal di Desa Songka Kota Palopo. Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan selama 2 bulan terhitung mulai bulan November sampai dengan Desember 2021. Tahapan dalam pengabdian ini adalah tahap persiapan yang meliputi pengamatan dan penyiangan lahan. Tahapan pelaksanaan terdiri dari peremajaan lahan, pengaplikasian kompos pada lahan untuk meningkatkan kesuburan tanah, proses penanaman bibit tanaman berupa tanaman jangka pendek seperti kangkung, bayam merah, kacang panjang dan lain-lain. Tahap selanjutnya adalah tahap pemeliharaan dan pemanenan. Kegiatan dilanjutkan dengan tahap evaluasi, penyusunan laporan dan penerbitan artikel di jurnal nasional serta penerbitan artikel HKI.

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