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All Journal Jurnal Fisika FLUX ORBITA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Ilmu Fisika SELAPARANG: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan AGRITEKNO, Jurnal Teknologi Pertanian Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Khatulistiwa Aphorisme: Journal of Arabic Language, Literature, and Education Jurnal Abdimas Kartika Wijayakusuma Inovasi Fisika Indonesia (IFI) Indonesian Research Journal on Education RENATA Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Kita Semua
Aprilia, Ayu
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Integration of magnus thermodynamic parameters and machine learning algorithms in rainfall prediction Aprilia, Ayu; Zakiya, Hanifah; Pauzi, Gurum Ahmad; Supriyanto, Amir; Syafriadi, Syafriadi
ORBITA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Ilmu Fisika Vol 11, No 2 (2025): November
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/orbita.v11i2.34505

Abstract

Atmospheric physics is very useful in predicting rainfall, particularly for analyzing air saturation conditions as a prerequisite for condensation. This study aims to model rainfall prediction using thermodynamic parameters, namely relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature difference (ΔT). These parameters were collected from BMKG Lampung meteorological data (2022–2024) and processed using the Magnus equation. ΔT is important as a sensitive indicator of air unsaturation. The data were statistically analyzed and modeled using a Gradient Boosting Classifier. The results obtained indicate a strong correlation between RH and ΔT and rainfall events (point-biserial correlation of 0.475). Furthermore, ΔT during rainfall is lower (average 2.87°C) and stable, indicating near-saturation conditions. During the evaluation stage, the model achieved 76% accuracy and 84% recall during rainfall. The model's good performance proves the effectiveness of physical parameters as predictive features. Finally, the model was implemented in a Flask-based web application for practical accessibility.
Co-Authors Abdurrahman, Ahmad Faruq Agnesia, Donna Agus Budiman Dewi, Yohana S K Fath, Yusril Al Firdaus, Iqbal Halidjah`, Siti Junaidi Junaidi Kusumandari, Kusumandari Maherawati, Maherawati Pauzi, Gurum Ahmad Pertiwi, Salwa Dian Posman Manurung Pranata, Rio Prihanto, Surya Pulung Karo-Karo Sri Wahyu Suciyati Suprihatin Suprihatin Supriyanto, Amir Syafriadi Syafriadi Teguh Endah Saraswati Wahidin, Alka Budi Zahar, Intan Zain, Auriza Luthfiah Zakiya, Hanifah