'Aina, Maula Qorri
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TIME SERIES MODELLING OF STOCK PRICE BY MODWT-ARIMA METHOD 'Aina, Maula Qorri; Hendikawati, Putriaji; Walid, Walid
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 8 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v8i2.30352

Abstract

MODWT-ARIMA is a time series modeling that combines the MODWT process and the ARIMA process. The MODWT process is used as pre-processing data while the ARIMA process as a time series modeling for data from MODWT decomposition. This study aims to show that time series modeling with a combined MODWT-ARIMA process provides more accurate forecast result compared to the ARIMA model. The modeled data is time series of daily stock price BBRI.JK started from January 2, 2015 to December 31, 2018. Accuracy measurement of the forecasting result is based on the RMSE value. The result is the MODWT-ARIMA model has a RMSE value which is smaller than the ARIMA model with RMSE , while the RMSE forecast results for 43 future periods is which is also smaller than the ARIMA forecast RMSE, . The diagnostic checking results if the ARIMA model for MODWT decompotition data, namely D1, D2, D3, and S3, indicate that the residual model is not white noise, while the ARIMA model for the time period of daily stock prices has white noise residuals. Theoritically, a model that has no white noise’s residual is considered to be less able to describe the properties of the observed data and further residual modeing should be done. However, this research is sufficient for the ARIMA model and it can be shown that the MODWT-ARIMA model is more effective for modelling time series that are not stationery compared to the ARIMA model.
Pengukuran Sikap dan Pemahaman Moderasi Beragama Penyuluh dan Guru Santoso, Arif Gunawan; 'Aina, Maula Qorri; Maknun, Moch. Lukluil; Muzayanah, Umi; Noviani, Nur Laili
Jurnal Dialog Vol 47 No 2 (2024): Dialog
Publisher : Sekretariat Badan Moderasi Beragama dan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Manusia (BMBPSDM) Kementerian Agama RI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47655/dialog.v47i2.989

Abstract

Abstrak Semua agama memiliki prinsip toleransi yang berlaku, baik untuk umat seagama maupun penganut agama lain. Kementerian Agama menetapkan tahun 2022 sebagai tahun toleransi dengan moderasi beragama sebagai indikatornya. Namun, sikap dan pemahaman moderasi beragama di kalangan penyuluh agama, guru agama, dan guru madrasah belum pernah dinilai secara sistematis. Artikel ini menggunakan metode survei untuk mengevaluasi sikap dan pemahaman moderasi beragama di kalangan penyuluh agama dan guru. Sebanyak 324 penyuluh agama dan 445 guru agama dan madrasah dipilih sebagai sampel melalui metode proporsional random sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sikap moderasi beragama penyuluh agama dan guru berada pada kategori tinggi, dengan skor rata-rata 3,62 dan 3,52 (skala 4) masing-masing, sementara pemahaman mereka memiliki skor rata-rata 0,67 dan 0,65 (skala 0-1), yang juga tergolong tinggi dan sedang. Namun, aspek toleransi memperoleh skor terendah, baik pada sikap maupun pemahaman. Toleransi beragama, terutama dalam perspektif antaragama, masih kurang dipahami oleh sebagian besar responden, dengan hanya sedikit yang memahami konsep toleransi beragama secara menyeluruh. Perbandingan antara alumni dan nonalumni pelatihan menunjukkan bahwa pelatihan moderasi beragama belum efektif. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan evaluasi terhadap sistem pelatihan PPMB, termasuk kurikulum, metode, dan implementasinya, belum optimal dalam meningkatkan kualitas penyuluh.   Abstract All religions have a concept of tolerance that applies to both fellow religions and different religions. The Ministry of Religious Affairs proclaimed 2022 as the year of tolerance, which its indicator is religious moderation. The attitude and understanding of religious moderation of religious counselors, religious teachers, and madrasa teachers have not been measured systematically before. This article uses a survey method to measure attitudes and understanding of religious moderation among religious counselors and teachers. About 324 religious counselors and 445 religious studies and madrasa teachers were chosen as the sample using proportional random sampling. The findings show that religious moderation attitude of religious counselors and teachers are in the high category, with an average score of 3.62 and 3.52 (scale 4) respectively. Their understanding of religious moderation has an average score of 0.67 and 0.65 (scale 0-1), which are also classified in high and moderate level. However, the tolerance aspect scored the lowest on both attitude and understanding. Religious tolerance, especially in an interfaith perspective, is still not sufficiently understood by most respondents. Only a few of respondents understand the concept of religious tolerance thoroughly. By comparing the attitudes and understanding of training alumni and nonalumni, implementing religious moderation training has not provided effective results. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the PPMB training system, including its curriculum, method, and implementation because it hasn’t been improving the religious counselors quality optimally.