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Competitiveness of The Top 15 Main Export Destinations of Indonesia's Natural Rubber for 1991–2020 Meliany, Birka Septy; Novianti, Tanti
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): JMA Vol. 19 No. 1, March 2022
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.19.1.37

This study aims to analyze the position and performance of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in terms of the concept of comparative advantage in the market world. The data used in this study were sourced from UN Comtrade, which is processed with a 30-year data series (1991-2020) and is categorized into six periods. The analytical methods used are Structural Trend Ranking (STR), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and X-Model. The results showed that 15 countries have consistently been the main Indonesian natural rubber market for 30 years. The RCA analysis showed that Indonesian natural rubber had strong competitiveness in all destination countries, except India in the first period. In contrast, the EPD analysis found that Indonesia's rubber market position was not always static and competitive. There was shown in the period 2011-2015, the average position of Indonesia's natural rubber market is in a market position that is not wanted to "retreat" in export destination countries. However, based on the X-Model results, the average Indonesian natural rubber is in a potential market position in all export destination countries in the 1991-2020 period. Keywords: Export Product Dynamic (EPD), natural rubber, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Structural Trend Ranking (STR), x-model

Covid-19 Pandemic and Volatility of Sugar Price at Regional Level in Indonesia for The Period August 2018-August 2021 Meliany, Birka Septy; Sahara; Probokawuryan, Mutiara; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 19 No. 2 (2022): JMA Vol. 19 No. 2, July 2022
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.19.2.229

It is expected that the COVID-19 pandemic provides a significant impact on food price volatility in many products including sugar. The paper aims to analyze the price dynamic of sugar before covid (1st August – 2nd March 2020) and during the covid outbreak (3rd March – 31th August 2021) in all provinces in Indonesia by using the t-test and ARCH GARCH model. Based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller analysis before and during covid, the prices of sugar in Indonesia were stationary at the “first difference”. The results reveal that the prices of sugar in all provinces in Indonesia before covid was lower compared to during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ARCH GARCH results, sugar prices were much more volatile in Riau, Jambi, West Java, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and West Papua. As such, the government should focus to reduce the price volatility of sugar in these provinces. Keywords: ARCH GARCH, COVID-19, sugar prices, stationarity, volatility

POTENSI DIVERSIFIKASI PASAR EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA Meliany, Birka Septy; Syaukat, Yusman; Widyastutik
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.696

Abstrak Diversifikasi pasar karet alam ke negara nontradisional menjadi salah satu solusi Indonesia meningkatkan nilai ekspor dan menghilangkan ketergantungan pada negara tradisional. Tujuan penelitian ini mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia dan menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 1990-2019. Identifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia menggunakan metode Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), dan demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) dan kuantitatif digunakan untuk menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 18 negara yang masuk kategori pasar nontradisional untuk karet alam Indonesia yaitu Kamboja, Pantai Gading, Republik Dominika, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, Makedonia Utara, Filipina, Rusia, Tanzania, Ukraina, dan Vietnam. Terdapat tiga negara nontradisional dengan pangsa pasar ekspor karet alam tertinggi Indonesia melalui Market Share Index yaitu India, Filipina dan Rusia yang didukung dengan kondisi makroekonomi yang baik. Kata Kunci: Karet Alam, Demand index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI) Abstract Diversification of the natural rubber market to nontraditional countries is one solution for Indonesia to increase export value and eliminate dependence on traditional countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the non-traditional export market of Indonesian natural rubber and analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in nontraditional countries. The analysis was carried out over the period 1990-2019. Identification of nontraditional Indonesian natural rubber export markets using the Statistical Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), and demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) and quantitative are used to analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in non-traditional countries. The results of the analysis show that there are 18 countries that are included in the non-traditional market category for Indonesian natural rubber, namely Cambodia, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Philippines, Russia, Tanzania, Ukraine, and Vietnam. There are three non-traditional countries with the highest market share for Indonesian natural rubber exports through the Market Share Index, namely India, the Philippines, and Russia, which are supported by good macroeconomic conditions. Keywords: Natural Rubber, Demand Index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI) JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18

Development of Indonesian Soybean Industry: Comparison Between Self-Sufficiency and Import Policies Meliany, Birka Septy; Novianti, Tanti; Tuga, Gordius Woltman
HABITAT Vol. 34 No. 3 (2023): December
Publisher : Department of Social Economy, Faculty of Agriculture , University of Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.habitat.2023.034.3.24

The aims of this article to analyze and evaluate soybean self-sufficiency and import policies in Indonesia through policy simulations for the development of soybean self-sufficiency and imports in Indonesia. The data used in this study are annual secondary data in the form of a time series from 1995 to 2020. This research uses descriptive analysis methods, simultaneous equation models (2SLS) and alternative policy simulations. The results shows that The GDP per capita in Indonesia and the considerable 5% increase in the price of soya beans are just two of the favorable factors influencing imports. However, it also demonstrates that there are no external variables influencing Indonesia's export of soy beans. The yield of soy beans is also positively and significantly impacted by the area of the land. On the other hand, Indonesia's soya bean net export is negative and significant. There are several alternative scenarios for Indonesia's soybean policy, including the escalation of land-size (20%), GDP per capita (30%), and official exchange rate (10%). The result of the policy simulation shows that the land-size is important factor to encouraging Indonesian soybean self-sufficiency due to essential input factors.

POTENSI DIVERSIFIKASI PASAR EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA Meliany, Birka Septy; Syaukat, Yusman; Widyastutik
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstrak Diversifikasi pasar karet alam ke negara nontradisional menjadi salah satu solusi Indonesia meningkatkan nilai ekspor dan menghilangkan ketergantungan pada negara tradisional. Tujuan penelitian ini mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia dan menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 1990-2019. Identifikasi pasar ekspor nontradisional karet alam Indonesia menggunakan metode Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), dan demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) dan kuantitatif digunakan untuk menganalisis pangsa pasar karet alam Indonesia di negara nontradisional. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 18 negara yang masuk kategori pasar nontradisional untuk karet alam Indonesia yaitu Kamboja, Pantai Gading, Republik Dominika, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, Makedonia Utara, Filipina, Rusia, Tanzania, Ukraina, dan Vietnam. Terdapat tiga negara nontradisional dengan pangsa pasar ekspor karet alam tertinggi Indonesia melalui Market Share Index yaitu India, Filipina dan Rusia yang didukung dengan kondisi makroekonomi yang baik. Kata Kunci: Karet Alam, Demand index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI) Abstract Diversification of the natural rubber market to nontraditional countries is one solution for Indonesia to increase export value and eliminate dependence on traditional countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the non-traditional export market of Indonesian natural rubber and analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in nontraditional countries. The analysis was carried out over the period 1990-2019. Identification of nontraditional Indonesian natural rubber export markets using the Statistical Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI), and demand index. Market Share Index (MSI) and quantitative are used to analyze the market share of Indonesian natural rubber in non-traditional countries. The results of the analysis show that there are 18 countries that are included in the non-traditional market category for Indonesian natural rubber, namely Cambodia, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Philippines, Russia, Tanzania, Ukraine, and Vietnam. There are three non-traditional countries with the highest market share for Indonesian natural rubber exports through the Market Share Index, namely India, the Philippines, and Russia, which are supported by good macroeconomic conditions. Keywords: Natural Rubber, Demand Index, Market Share Index (MSI), Statistic Trend Ranking (STR), Structural (Exports) Match Index (SMI) JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18

Export Dynamics of Rubber From Like-Minded Countries To European Union Meliany, Birka Septy; Syaukat, Yusman; Widyastutik, Widyastutik; Rifin, Amzul
Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Vol. 22 No. 2 (2025): JMA Vol. 22 No. 2, July 2025
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.22.2.172

Background: The European Union is a major importer of natural rubber. However, the rise of global competition and the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) in 2023 has impacted rubber trade dynamics, particularly in Like-Minded Countries (LMC).Purpose: This study analyzes the competitiveness and efficiency of rubber exports from 17 LMC to the European Union from 2013 to 2022.Design/methodology/approach: The study uses Revealed Comparative Advantage, Export Product Dynamics, X-Model, and Stochastic Frontier Analysis with data from the UN Comtrade, Trade Map, and World Bank.Findings/Result: This study shows increased competitiveness in rubber exports to the European Union, while some countries experienced stagnation. The implementation of sustainability policies, particularly the EUDR, significantly influences export competitiveness. Countries that adhere to sustainability standards have demonstrated notable improvements in their export performance. Conclusion: Although some countries have significant export potential, they have not fully optimized it. The LMC needs to enhance efficiency and meet sustainability standards to improve competitiveness and fully leverage export potential in the European Union market.Originality/value (state of the art): This research contributes to the limited literature on rubber trade dynamics under the impact of environmental regulations such as the EUDR. It comprehensively analyzes trade patterns and efficiency and offers valuable insights for academic and practical applications in global trade studies. Keywords: Competitiveness, environmental policy, export efficiency, stochastic frontier, trade potential

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