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Journal : ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application

Perancangan Aplikasi Peramalan untuk Metode Exponential Smoothing Menggunakan Aplikasi Lazarus (Studi Kasus: Data Konsumsi Listrik Kota Samarinda) Hairi Septiyanor; Syaripuddin Syaripuddin; Rito Goejantoro
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 2, No. 2, Juli, 2021 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v2i2.13364

Abstract

Exponential smoothing is forecasting method used to predict the future. Lazarus is an open source software based on free pascal compiler. at this research, program Lazarus be design used exponential smoothing method to predict electricity consumption data in Samarinda City from September to November 2018. Purposed of this researched is to determine the procedure of building an exponential smoothing forecasting application and obtained forecasting result using the built application. Procedure of built the application are designed interface, designed properties and filled coding. The optimum smoothing parameters were obtained used the golden section method. Based on the analysis, electricity consumption data in Samarinda City shows a trend pattern, then the forecasting was used double exponential smoohting (DES) method are DES Brown and DES Holt. The best forecasting method for at this researched is DES Holt, because DES Holt method produced MAPE 0,0659% less than DES Brown method produced MAPE 0,0843%.
Co-Authors Abidin, Ahmad Aliful Aditiya Risky Tizona Amanah Saeroni Andrea Tri Rian Dani Annabaa Aulia, Muzizah Ardyanti, Hesti Ariessela, Syeli Astuti, Putri Sri Athifaturrofifah Athifaturrofifah Cahyani, Era Tri Candra, Yossy Christyadi, Santo Dani, Andrea Tri Rian Darnah Darnah Andi Nohe Darnah, Darnah Desi Yuniarti Deviyana Nurmin Devy Sintya Putri Dewi Wulan Sari Dini Elizabeth Dwi Agoes Setiawan Dwi Husnul Mubiin Dwi Indra Yunistya Dyah Arumatica Novilla Etri Pujiati Fatmi’aturro’isah, Nurul Febriyanti, Nur Afifah Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya Gerald Claudio Messakh Hairi Septiyanor Hidayatullah, Aji Syarif Ika Purnamasari Ika Purnamasari Ilham Adnan Kasoqi Irene Lishania Irfan Fadil Isgiarahmah, Afryda Juliartha, Made Angga Katianda, Kristin Rulin Khairun Nida Khoiril Anwar Lupinda, Indah Cahyani M. Fathurahman Mahmudi Mahmudi Martua Tri Januar Sinaga Meiliyani Siringoringo Memi Nor Hayati Memi Nor Hayati Memi Nor Hayati Memi Nor Hayati Mochammad Imron Awalludin Muhammad Rahmad Fadli Muhammad Rais Muhammad Yafi Mulyta Anggraini Murdani, Endah Mulia Ni Wayan Rica A Novalia, Viona Nur Annisa Fitri Nur Azizah Nurdayanti Nurdayanti Nurhasanah Nurhasanah Nurmin, Deviyana Nurul Rahmahani Oktri Mayasari Permana, Jordan Nata Primantoro, Sudhan Putra, Eko Prasatyo Putri, Nurlia Sucianti Rachman, Dezty Adhe Chajannah Rahmaulidyah, Fatihah Noor Rinaldi, Rival Satriya, Andi M Ade Sekar Nur Utami Septilasse, Rebeka Norcaline Sifriyani, Sifriyani Siringoringo, Meiliyani Siti Mahmuda Soraya, Raihana Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Suerni, Widya - Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Suyitno Suyitno Syafitri, Febriana Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Wasono Wasono Wasono, Wasono Widyawati Widyawati Yenni Safitri Yudha Muhammad Faishol Yuki Novia Nasution Yuki Novia Nasution, Yuki Novia Yuliasari, Pratiwi Dwi Yuniarti, Desi