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All Journal Statistika Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Jurnal Matematika & Sains Jurnal Riset Statistika Bandung Conference Series: Statistics STATISTIKA
Sutawanir Darwis
Statistics Research Division, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics

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Journal : STATISTIKA

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Law of Total Probability of Aftershocks in Earthquake Insurance Darwis, Sutawanir; Hajarisman, Nusar; Suliadi; Fatiha Nurfauzan, Arsyi; Aulia, Githa
Statistika Vol. 25 No. 1 (2025): Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/statistika.v25i1.3886

Abstract

Abstract. Seismic hazard expressed in annual rate of exceedance of a peak ground acceleration traditionally refers to mainshock. A similar seismic hazard, APSHA, has been adopted for aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) refers to a homogeneous Poisson process to describe mainshock while APSHA models aftershock occurrence as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process whose rate modeled as Omori law. It shown that the combination of PSHA and APSHA results seismic hazard for mainshock-aftershock seismic sequence/cluster (SPSHA/CPSHA). This study shows how to combine results of APSHA and PSHA and proposes a method for earthquake insurance. The study was carried out for West Java region with 206 occurrences consist of 11 clusters. One cluster with 74 aftershocks was chosen for further study. The parameters of SPSHA/CPSHA was estimated using maximum likelihood. The results of SPSHA/CPSHA combined with damage probability matrix (DPM) yields an expected annual damage ratio (EADR) as an indicator of earthquake insurance. The proposed method in this study can be used as a method for computing earthquake insurance premium. Due to limited data further study is needed to obtain accurate and reasonable results.
Monte Carlo Based Sampling Distribution of Annual Rate of Exceedance for Earthquake Insurance Darwis, Sutawanir; Hajarisman, Nusar; Suliadi; Widodo, Achmad; Diahsty Marasabessy, Munira; Arya Ramadhan, Iqbal
Statistika Vol. 24 No. 1 (2024): Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/statistika.v24i1.3173

Abstract

ABSTRACT Seismic hazard expressed in terms of annual rate of exceedance and is used to calculate the earthquake insurance premium. Annual rate of exceedance is a complicated function of magnitudes, distances from site to earthquake sources and attenuation. Due to its complexity, determination of exact sampling distribution of earthquake insurance premium is not an easy task. This research proposes Monte Carlo simulation approach to determine the sampling distribution of earthquake insurance premium. Annual rate of exceedance was simulated first and then the insurance premium calculated based on simulation of annual rate of exceedance. The simulation involves quantifying synthetic catalogue similar to historical catalogue. Its simulation is conducted in order to construct annual rate of exceedance as an indicator of earthquake risk used in earthquake insurance. The simulation of 25 iteration and sample size of 100 shows that the sampling distribution of insurance premium is skewed to the right. The idea of using Monte Carlo simulation to study the sampling distribution of annual rate of exceedance is the originality of the study and the study contributes to the methodology of earthquake insurance.
Co-Authors 10060116092, Giska Miftah Nurjanah 10060119088, Mayke Nuraini Alamsyah 10060119122, Jelita Ardilla A Zanbar Soleh Aceng Komarudin Mutaqin Achmad Saifuddin Noer Achmad Widodo Achmad Widodo Agus Yodi Gunawan Allyaa Putri Asti Arya Ramadhan, Iqbal Asep Kurnia Permadi Asep Kurnia Permadi Aulia, Githa Budi Nurani Ruchjana Diahsty Marasabessy, Munira Dumaria R. Tampubolon Fachry Abda El Rahman Fatiha nurfauzan, Arsyi Gan Gan Saefullah Ghassany Fathiyah Kamal Githa Aulia Kurni Permadi Kuslan Kuslan Lira Adiyani Mohammand Sobri Nadya Chaerunisa Apriani Nina Fitriyati Novaida Zulfita Nurfauzan, Arsyi Fatiha NURTITI SUNUSI Nusar Hajarisman Ocke Kurniandi Raisa Filmi Suryahadikusumah Riyani Desriawati Rizki Aulia Hawa Roslan Lacutonsina Siti Rahmawati Sofi Sopiah Sri Wahyuningsih Suliadi Suliadi Suliadi Yayat Karyana