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All Journal Jurnal Antropologi: Isu-Isu Sosial budaya Journal of Aceh Physics Society Jurnal Ilmu Kebencanaan : Program Pascasarjana Unsyiah Jurnal The Messenger Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment, and Technology Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) Indonesian Journal of Chemistry Jurnal Ilmu Fisika Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Fisika Risalah Fisika International Journal of Educational Review, Law And Social Sciences (IJERLAS) International Journal of Social Science, Educational, Economics, Agriculture Research, and Technology (IJSET) Jurnal Natural International Journal of Disaster Management Jurnal Rekayasa elektrika Jurnal Teknik Sipil
Nazli Ismail
Jurusan Fisika, Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Syiah Kuala
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Journal : Jurnal Ilmu Fisika

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Projection of Climate Extreme Indices Based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) in Aceh Province Subiyantoro, Fitrohim; Abdullah, Faisal; Ismail, Nazli; Gede Arya Putra, I Dewa; Grefyolin Simbolon, Theresia
Jurnal Ilmu Fisika Vol 17 No 1 (2025): March 2025
Publisher : Jurusan Fisika FMIPA Universitas Andalas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jif.17.1.1-8.2025

Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are based on assumptions about the future development of radiative forcing. There are 4 RCP scenarios, but only 2 RCP scenarios are used in this study, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The aims are to identify characteristics and percentage changes in extreme climate indices in the future. CMIP5 model data such as CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR and NorESM1-M were used. The model data was downscaled using a statistical method, and bias correction was based on observational data from five BMKG stations in Aceh Province for the historical period (2001-2005). Subsequently, the observation data and bias-corrected model data for extreme climate events were identified based on the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The extreme climate indices utilized in this study are consecutive rainy days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), total annual rainfall (Prcptot), monthly maximum temperature (TXx), and monthly minimum temperature (TNn). The results show that the CDD, Prcptot, TXx and TNn climate indices tend to increase in 2021 – 2100 periods. Meanwhile, the CWD decreased. Based on the historical period, all extreme climate indices increased significantly in 2021 - 2100 except TXx, which decreased in 2021 – 2040.
Projection of Climate Extreme Indices Based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) in Aceh Province Subiyantoro, Fitrohim; Abdullah, Faisal; Ismail, Nazli; Gede Arya Putra, I Dewa; Grefyolin Simbolon, Theresia
Jurnal Ilmu Fisika Vol 17 No 1 (2025): March 2025
Publisher : Jurusan Fisika FMIPA Universitas Andalas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jif.17.1.1-8.2025

Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are based on assumptions about the future development of radiative forcing. There are 4 RCP scenarios, but only 2 RCP scenarios are used in this study, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The aims are to identify characteristics and percentage changes in extreme climate indices in the future. CMIP5 model data such as CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR and NorESM1-M were used. The model data was downscaled using a statistical method, and bias correction was based on observational data from five BMKG stations in Aceh Province for the historical period (2001-2005). Subsequently, the observation data and bias-corrected model data for extreme climate events were identified based on the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The extreme climate indices utilized in this study are consecutive rainy days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), total annual rainfall (Prcptot), monthly maximum temperature (TXx), and monthly minimum temperature (TNn). The results show that the CDD, Prcptot, TXx and TNn climate indices tend to increase in 2021 – 2100 periods. Meanwhile, the CWD decreased. Based on the historical period, all extreme climate indices increased significantly in 2021 - 2100 except TXx, which decreased in 2021 – 2040.
Co-Authors . Azmeri, . Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Afrahun Naziah Agus Pajrin Jaman Alvin Caesar Lesmana Ikramsyah Amalia, Nabila Anak Agung Istri Sri Wiadnyani Aprillino Wangsa Arief, Nasrullah Idris Asyqari, Amir Ayu Safrida Bakhtiar Bakhtiar Bukhari Bukhari Bukhari Bukhari CUT INTAN KEUMALA Darisma, Dian Deviyani R. Putri Dzakiyul Mubarrak Elin Yusibani Erwin, Riza Eva Andriani Fadhli Fadhli Faisal Abdullah Faisal Abdullah Faisal Faisal Faliqul Isbah Farid Mufti Fauzi Fauzi Gede Arya Putra, I Dewa Grefyolin Simbolon, Theresia Gunawati Gunawati Hidayatul Azizi I Ketut Suada Ibnu Rusydy IDRS, NASRULLAH Indahsari, Fitriana N. indra indra irfan Putra Irhamni . IRWANSYAH . Iskandar Madjid Kendek Limbong Khairul Munadi Khumaidi Khumaidi Lahna, Kurnia Laura Vadzla Hermansyah Lukmanul Hakim M. Dirhamsyah Maisarah, Mila Marwan . Marwan Abu Bakar Marwan Marwan Marwan Marwan Masyithah Masyitah Mieftah Oesanna Miftahul Jannah Mitaphonna, Rara Muhajirin Muhajirin Muhammad Nanda Muhammad Nanda Muhammad Yanis Muhammad Yanis Muksin Umar Muliadi Ramli Mulyani . Muzakir Zainal Nasrullah Zaini Nela Wirja NOVIA PURNAMA SARI Putri, Salsa Nazia Qalbi, Harisa Bilhaqqi Rahimi . Riza Erwin Sjafrizal . Subiyantoro, Fitrohim Surbakti, Muhammad Syukri Syamsidik, Syamsidik Taqwaddin Husin Teuku Khairuman TOMI AFRIZAL Umar Muksin Umar, Muksin