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Journal : International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling

Examining the Long and Short Run Effect of Young Workers on Macroeconomic Variables: An Application of Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach Rizky Wardhana; Vivi Silvia; M. Shabri Abd. Majid
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol 2, No 4 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v2i4.180

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze the linkage between young workers and macroeconomic variables in Indonesia through a cointegration and causality approach. Multivariate causality between these variables. Using ARDL panel regression (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) with data from 2005 – 2019 covering 33 provinces in Indonesia. The results showed that the variable government expenditure on education had no effect on young workers in the short and long term, the variable economic growth only had a positive and significant effect on young workers in the long term. The increase in the minimum wage has a significant negative effect on young workers in the short term, and vice versa, it has a positive and significant effect on the long term. The last variable that has an effect is the investment variable which has a negative and significant effect in the short term on young workers. The results of multivariate causality testing between the variables above have the result that young workers have a two-way causal relationship with the minimum wage and have a one-way relationship with government spending on education.
The Effects of Monetary Variables on the Growth of Small and Medium Industry in Aceh Province Ade Habya Fijay; Vivi Silvia; Chenny Seftarita
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol 2, No 3 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v2i3.175

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, bank credit, and SMI investment on the growth of small and medium industries in Aceh Province. This study uses panel data consisting of 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province during the period 2014 to 2020. The analysis model used in this study is a panel data regression model. The results found in this study are variables that have a significant effect on the growth of SMIs in Aceh Province are inflation and investment in SMIs. Meanwhile, the banking credit variable has not had a statistically significant effect on the growth of SMIs. The inflation variable has a negative and significant effect on the growth of SMIs so that uncontrolled inflation will have a negative impact on the growth of SMIs. Meanwhile, SMI investment has a positive and significant impact on the growth of SMIs so that various targeted investment policies are needed so that they can support the development of SMIs in Aceh Province.