Articles
<![CDATA[Rivalitas Saudi-Qatar dan Skenario Krisis Teluk ]]>
<![CDATA[Wardoyo, Broto]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Hubungan Internasional Vol 7, No 1 (2018): April ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta ]]>
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DOI: 10.18196/hi.71127
<![CDATA[Tensions in the Gulf region between Saudi and its allies against Qatar was marked by the termination of diplomatic relations in the midst 2017. The tension has a quite long history and can be divided into three different phases. Prior to and during the 1990s, their rivalry was mainly centred on border disputes. Later, in the 2000s, hydrocarbon politics played a role and intermingled with border disputes as the central issues of disputes. While in the 2010s, the dispute revolves around regional domination. Within the latter context, Iran plays an influential role in the rivalry between Saudi and Qatar. Hence, the balance of political power between Saudi and Iran would be the most critical determinant factor in the future scenario of this crisis. The efforts to prevent the crisis escalation would require a mediator to limit Iranian involvement.]]>
<![CDATA[Intervensi Amerika Serikat dalam Perang Sipil Suriah, 2011– 2017 ]]>
<![CDATA[Adipura, Andri Ramawan]]>;
<![CDATA[Wardoyo, Broto]]>
<![CDATA[ Global and Policy Journal of International Relations Vol 9, No 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Program Studi Hubungan Internasional Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Jawa Timur ]]>
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DOI: 10.33005/jgp.v9i2.3011
<![CDATA[AbstractThis article discusses United States’ intervention in the Syrian civil war during 2011-2017 period. It asks a question of why the United States employs covert non-military regime change instead of overt military regime change as in the other previous cases of United States’ intervention. An offensive regime change, as in the case of Syria, according to theory, has a lower probability of success in comparison to other types of regime change. It argues that the decision taken by the United States government is due to the high cost and lower possibility of success for overt military intervention that United States would have to bear. However, pressures from ideological allies and the quest to gain strategic benefits have led to United States’ decision to intervene in Syrian civil war. Keywords: intervention, foreign-imposed regime change, Syrian civil war, United StatesAbstrakTulisan ini membahas intervensi Amerika Serikat dalam perang sipil Suriah tahun 2011-2017. Pada awal perang sipil, Amerika Serikat lebih memilih intervensi secara tertutup dalam mendorong perubahan rezim di Suriah. Namun, di pertengan perang sipil Amerika Serikat mengubah intervensinya dengan menggunakan intrumen militer. Pertanyaan yang diajukan dalam tulisan ini adalah mengapa Amerika Serikat memilih opsi intervensi non-militer di awal-awal perang sipil dan tidak langsung melakukan intervensi militer seperti yang dilakukan dalam kasus-kasus upaya paksa perubahan rezim sebelumnya. Secara teoritik, upaya paksa perubahan rezim non-militer secara tertutup yang berkarakter ofensif memiliki probabilitas keberhasilan yang rendah sehingga pilihan Amerika Serikat di Suriah tersebut menarik untuk dibahas. Argumen utama tulisan ini adalah bahwa opsi intervensi non-militer tertutup dipilih karena pertimbangan biaya dan kalkulasi keberhasilan sedangkan intervensi itu sendiri dilakukan karena tekanan aliansi ideologis dan pertimbangan keuntungan stratejik. Kata Kunci: intervensi, upaya paksa penggulingan rezim, perang sipil Suriah, Amerika Serikat DOI : https://doi.org/10.33005/jgp.v9i2.3011]]>
<![CDATA[Establishing Civilian Control over the Armed Forces ]]>
<![CDATA[Broto Wardoyo]]>
<![CDATA[ Global Strategis Vol. 10 No. 2 (2016): Global Strategis ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Departemen Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Unair ]]>
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DOI: 10.20473/jgs.10.2.2016.153-167
<![CDATA[Using simple regression, this paper examines the explanans to the degree of civilian control over the armed forces. This paper takes into consideration four of the most considered independent variables to explain the degree of civilian control over the armed forces, i.e. internal threat, economic condition, civil liberties, and military access to resources. It suggests that the degree of internal threat is negatively correlated with the degree of civilian control over the armed forces while economic condition, civil liberties, and defense spending, or access to resources, enhance the degree of civilian control over the armed forces. In addition, it also suggests that civil liberties have the highest influence to the degree of civilian control over the armed forces, controlling the other independent variables. Since civil liberties are closely related to degree of democracy, it basically confirms previous research that suggest the degree of civilian control is closely and positively correlated with the maturity of democracy.]]>
<![CDATA[Breaking Taboo: Explaining the United Arab Emirates’ Decision to Establish Diplomatic Relationship with Israel ]]>
<![CDATA[Broto Wardoyo]]>;
<![CDATA[Rizal Valentino]]>
<![CDATA[ Global Strategis Vol. 16 No. 1 (2022): Global Strategis ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Departemen Hubungan Internasional, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Unair ]]>
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DOI: 10.20473/jgs.16.1.2022.147-174
<![CDATA[ Uni Emirat Arab (UEA) membuka hubungan diplomatik dengan Israel, yang bertentangan dengan Inisiatif Perdamaian Arab (IPA) yang juga ditandatangani oleh UEA, yang menyatakan agar tidak membuka hubungan diplomatik dengan Israel sebelum Palestina mendapatkan kemerdekaan. Selama ini, ancaman dari Iran ini ditangkal oleh eksistensi Amerika Serikat (AS) di kawasan Timur Tengah, namun seiring dengan berkurangnya perhatian AS pada kawasan Timur Tengah maka muncul kebutuhan untuk membangun aliansi dengan like-minded countries yang memiliki persepsi ancaman yang sama. Tulisan ini akan menjelaskan lebih dalam mengenai justifkasi UEA untuk tetap membuka hubungan diplomatik dengan Israel terlepas dari komitmen mereka terhadap IPA, melalui argumen bahwa keputusan UEA didorong oleh adanya persepsi akan ancaman dari Iran terhadap budaya stratejik mereka, dan lebih lanjut berkontribusi pada kajian mengenai faktor kultural dalam perumusan kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara. United Arab Emirate (UAE) is normalizing its diplomatic relationship with Israel, conflicting with the Arab Peace Initiative of which the UAE is one of the signatories, which stated that no Arab states should normalize diplomatic relationship with Israel before the Palestinians regain their rights to independence. Prior to UAE’s recent decision, the United States’ presence in Middle East has been the deterrence to the threat from Iran and now that US’ attention for the region has declined, the UAE needs partner from like-minded countries to secure its foothold against Iranian threat. This article will further explain the UAE’s decision to break the taboo in normalizing their diplomaticrelationship with Israel, by arguing that the UAE’s perception of threat from Iran, deeply embedded in UAE’s strategic culture, has led to the decision to normalize diplomatic relationship with Israel, and offers a cultural insight of a foreign policy decision making process in the study of foreign policy analysis.]]>
<![CDATA[Dinamika Geopolitik Timur Tengah dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Broto Wardoyo]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Lemhannas RI Vol 5 No 1 (2017) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Lembaga Ketahanan Nasional Republik Indonesia ]]>
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<![CDATA[Timur Tengah dikenal sebagai kawasan yang memiliki tingkat instabilitas tinggi. Interaksi antara tiga realitas di level global, regional, dan nasional/lokal di kawasan ini menentukan dinamika geopolitik Timur Tengah. Dalam realitas global, menurunnya pengaruh Amerika Serikat diimbangi dengan semakin menguatnya pengaruh kekuatankekuatan global lainnya. Dalam realitas regional, pertarungan antara kekuatan-kekuatan kawasan—Saudi dan Iran—berinteraksi dengan pertarungan antara Saudi dengan kekuatankekuatan non-negara, baik Sunni maupun Syiah. Di dalam realitas nasional/lokal, pertarungan antar-kelompok—baik berbasis etnis maupun sekte—berlangsung dimana kelompok-kelompok tersebut memiliki kecenderungan untuk melakukan internasionalisasi konflik. Dari dinamika tersebut, ada dua isu yang harus dipahami dengan baik oleh Indonesia untuk menjaga dirinya agar tidak terus-menerus menjadi variabel dependen dari dinamika geopolitik Timur Tengah, yaitu: radikalisme agama dan internasionalisasi konflik.]]>
<![CDATA[MEDIASI INDONESIA DALAM PROSES PERDAMAIAN PALESTINA- ISRAEL ]]>
<![CDATA[Wardoyo, Broto]]>;
<![CDATA[Wirawan, Hariyadi]]>;
<![CDATA[Santiko, Utaryo]]>
<![CDATA[ Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Vol. 13, No. 1 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[UI Scholars Hub ]]>
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<![CDATA[The aim of this research is to build a strategy for Indonesia’s involvement in the Palestinian- Israeli peace process. We first identify the main obstacle for such involvement, which, in our view, is the absence of official contacts between Indonesia and Israel The opening of such contacts, however, is not possible due to a number of reasons. First and foremost, the opening of such contacts will create tremendous political pressures to the government from the Islamic communities. In addition, the economic gains of such an opening are not quite tangible. Finally, the opening of such contacts could easily be interpreted as a violation to the constitution which clearly calls for the right to independence. To tackle those problems, our proposal is to build an unofficial-official which combine the Taiwan model and the backchannel model and add it with the normative framework and pragmatic interests for Indonesia’s involvement.]]>
<![CDATA[Pemerintah Hamas dan Prospek Perdamaian ]]>
<![CDATA[Wardoyo, Broto]]>
<![CDATA[ Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Vol. 8, No. 2 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[UI Scholars Hub ]]>
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<![CDATA[The assumption of Hamas as a terrorist organization has led the peace process to adopt the strategy to exclude Hamas. Hamas’ victory in the 2006 parliament election soon followed by resistances and rejections from Israel, the U.S. and several European countries. This eventually leads to the isolation of Palestine by donor countries and affects Palestinian economy. In order to start the peace process, the world first needs to acknowledge the Hamas government and not to assume them as a terrorist organization. The peace process should realize that Hamas’ acts during the 1993-2005 periods were their attempts to enter Palestinian political structure. Hamas show a more pragmatic political move lately with their readiness to enter the negotiation as long as Israel will retreat from the Occupied Territories. This shows their commitment to peace process rather than to ideological values of jihad to free the whole land of Palestine and erect an Islamic State. Hamas’ commitment to hudna should be seen as their attempt to create a peace mechanism. This attempt should be followed by a negotiation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) and their guidance of a fair mediator.]]>
<![CDATA[Isu Lingkungan Hidup Global: Tantangan Kebijakan Luar Negeri dan Negosiasi Multilateral ]]>
<![CDATA[Isnaeni, Nurul]]>;
<![CDATA[Wardoyo, Broto]]>
<![CDATA[ Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Vol. 9, No. 2 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[UI Scholars Hub ]]>
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<![CDATA[- Nowadays environmental issue has been a main topic in international affairs. Hundreds of international environmenta! agreement has been born in the last three decades, which reflects state-actors' choice through its foreign-policy that is to cooperate in the complex dynamics of environmental issue. International cooperation process itself actually is a complex political bargaining, as it tries to harmonize varied interests. Therefore, diplomacy has been an important policy instrument in order to bridge those varied interests. The question is how to define diplomacy practice in multilateral level that involves a complex political process along with multi actors, characters, and interests? This article boards from preposition that a representative diplomats, instead of defines the essence of environmental issue in the foreign-policy context as global politic dynamics, must also have the understanding about the essence of diplomacy and the court's procedures in multilateral conference in order to focus to its goals.]]>
<![CDATA[Proposal “Deal of the Century” dan Dampaknya bagi Proses Perdamaian Palestina-Israel ]]>
<![CDATA[Broto Wardoyo]]>
<![CDATA[ Andalas Journal of International Studies (AJIS) Vol 10, No 2 (2021): Andalas Journal of International Studies, Vol 10 No 2 November 2021 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Department of International Relations, Universitas Andalas ]]>
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DOI: 10.25077/ajis.10.2.171-191.2021
<![CDATA[In January 2020, President Donald Trump put forward a peaceproposal which he claimed to be the “deal of the century”. It is apeace proposal that offers general framework on settlement ofborders, sovereignty of the Palestinian state, the status ofJerusalem, and refugees’ issue as well as a framework oneconomic cooperation between Palestine and Israel which Trumpinsisted as a fair final solution for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.This article seeks to assess the impact of this proposal to thePalestinian-Israeli peace process. In doing so, this article comparesthis proposal with previous agreements and concludes that thisproposal brings negative, rather than positive, impacts to the peaceprocess since it is not based on a balance positioning between thetwo conflicting parties. This proposal strengthens Israeli’s claimand hence enhances their position in the negotiation whichindicating the inability of the United States to serve as an honestbroker to the peace process. In addition, this proposal was putforward by President Trump during an unfavorable condition inboth Palestinian and Israeli domestic politics. The only positiveaspect of this proposal is that it can serve as a reason to restartnegotiation process. Therefore, this proposal should be consideredonly as a steppingstone to open another round of peace negotiationbetween Palestine and Israel and should not be implemented as it is.]]>
<![CDATA[Strategic Intelligence Analysis of the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation: Potential Vulnerability of Indonesia’s National Security ]]>
<![CDATA[Digna Permata]]>;
<![CDATA[Broto Wardoyo]]>;
<![CDATA[David Ronald Tairas]]>
<![CDATA[ International Journal of Science and Society Vol 5 No 2 (2023): International Journal of Science and Society (IJSOC) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[GoAcademica Research & Publishing ]]>
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DOI: 10.54783/ijsoc.v5i2.703
<![CDATA[This study addresses the issue of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, which includes the possession of chemical weapons, biological weapons, and nuclear weapons. The international community endeavors to mitigate the dangers posed by the trade in weapons of mass destruction. Changes in technology have contributed to a shift in the sources of funding for weapons of mass destruction. Financial institutions are susceptible to being utilized as a conduit for money laundering and the financing of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. There are a variety of transactional options available for money laundering and the financing of weapons of mass destruction by criminals. Financial institutions must therefore adhere to international protocols to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Interviews and documentation studies are used to collect qualitative data for this study.]]>
