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All Journal Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Media Statistika Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS IPTEK Journal of Proceedings Series International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Kubik Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Inferensi Madaniya Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity) Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Dedy Dwi Prastyo
Department Of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
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Journal : IPTEK Journal of Proceedings Series

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Number of Foreign Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Percentile Error Bootstrap Based on VARIMA Model Hidayatul Khusna; Muhammad Ahsan; Dedy Dwi Prastyo
IPTEK Journal of Proceedings Series No 2 (2017): The 2nd Internasional Seminar on Science and Technology (ISST) 2016
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (839.994 KB) | DOI: 10.12962/j23546026.y2017i2.3270

Abstract

Forecasting number of foreign tourist arrivals is important to improve the policies in the tourism sector. Better accuracy of forecast would help the government and investor to make operational, tactical, and strategic decisions. Data used in this research are monthly number of foreign tourist arrivals taken from Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics. Multivariate forecasting at Soekarno-Hatta, Juanda, and Adi Sumarmo arrival gates was conducted using VARIMA ([12],1,0) (0,1,0)12 model. However, the longer step ahead to forecast, the larger variance error of corresponding models. As a result, the prediction interval become wider. This research computed the prediction interval using percentile error bootstrap based on VARIMA models that produced more precise forecast.
Co-Authors A. Tuti Rumiati Abdul Karim Abdul Karim Adatul Mukarohmah Affandy*, Nur Azizah Ahsan, Muhammad Akhmad Faturohman Almas, Luqyana Bambang Widjanorko Otok Bambang Widjanorko Otok Budi Manfaat budi manfaat, budi Danny Hermawan Adiwibowo Data Iranata dwi purwanto Eksiandayani, Santi Era Ardhya Pramesti Erma Oktania Permatasari Faturohman, Akhmad Fithriasari, Kartika Forestryani, Veniola Fredi Suryadi Fredi Suryadi Hendri Prabowo Heri Kuswanto Hidayatul Khusna Husna Miratin Nuroini Ismaini Zain Latifah, Turfah Luh Putu Shintya Handayani Maharsi, Rengganis Woro Maulana, Mahendra Andiek Muhammad Hisyam Lee Muhammad Sjahid Akbar Nadjadji Anwar Novi Ajeng Salehah Prandipa, Rayza Pusaka, Semerdanta Rhifda Zukhrufi Rizki Nanda Savera Roosyidah, Nila Ayu Nur S Suhartono, S Salafiyah Isnawati Santi Puteri Rahayu Saputra, Wisnowan Hendy Setiawan Setiawan Setiawan Setiawan Shofi Andari Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Supriyatna, Putu Krishnanda Veniola Forestryani Vita Ratnasari Wardoyo, Wasis Wibawati Wibawati Widhianingsih, Tintrim Dwi Ary Yusop, Zulkifli