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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan Riset: Jurnal Aplikasi Ekonomi Akuntansi dan Bisnis Jurnal Abdimas Dedikasi Kesatuan Journal of Accounting Research, Organization and Economics (JAROE) West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship Journal of Contemporary Administration and Management (ADMAN) Jurnal Terobosan Peduli Masyarakat (TIRAKAT)
Jan Horas Veryady Purba
STIE Kesatuan
Religion Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Health Professions Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Analyzing the Impact of Import Tariffs, Trade Dynamics, and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia Purba, Jan Horas Veryady; Mulyana, Mumuh; Satria, Wahyu Indra
Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan Vol. 13 No. 2 (2025): JIMKES Edisi Maret 2025
Publisher : LPPM Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37641/jimkes.v13i2.3005

Abstract

This study examines the multifaceted relationship between import tariffs, trade dynamics, and exchange rates and their collective impact on economic growth in Indonesia. As a developing country integrated into the global economy, Indonesia's growth is heavily influenced by international trade policies and macroeconomic factors. This study investigates how various import tariffs change trade dynamics, which in turn affect Indonesia's economic growth. At the same time, the exchange rate is analyzed as an important mediator that shapes the trade balance and examines the effect of changes in import tariffs on economic growth. The estimation method used is path analysis, using 9 years of historical quantitative data (2016-2024). Econometric modeling and statistical analysis are used to capture the direct and indirect relationships among the variables of interest. This study finds that import tariffs negatively impact Indonesia’s economic growth through various mediating variables, including the trade balance, exchange rate, and US imports and exports. Empirical analysis using Path Analysis reveals that higher tariffs reduce Indonesia’s export volume, restrict foreign market access, and distort exchange rate stability, leading to trade imbalances and depressing GDP growth. In addition, reduced US imports from Indonesia weaken Indonesia’s trade revenues, which affect investment and consumption capacity. The broader economic consequences highlight the need for a strategic trade policy that balances national interests with global competitiveness. These findings provide policymakers with a framework to optimize Indonesia's trade and monetary strategies to ensure sustainable long-term economic growth. Keywords: Import Tariffs, Exchange Rates, Trade Balance, Economic Growth.
Analyzing the Purbaya Effect: A Descriptive Qualitative Study on Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Indonesia Purba, Jan Horas Veryady
West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship Vol. 4 No. 01 (2026): West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship
Publisher : Westscience Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58812/wsjee.v4i01.2475

Abstract

This study examines the phenomenon of the Purbaya Effect within the framework of Indonesia’s fiscal policy, focusing on its implications for market dynamics, economic growth, and fiscal credibility. Addressing a research gap in the limited academic discourse on the Purbaya Effect—with prior studies largely confined to general fiscal issues such as deficits and government spending—this research adopts a descriptive qualitative approach. Two articles were analyzed using NVivo to identify dominant themes and word frequencies. Findings reveal that the Purbaya Effect signifies a paradigm shift toward expansionary fiscal strategies, characterized by increased government spending, interest rate reductions, liquidity injections, and the strengthening of MSMEs and the real sector as drivers of growth. Thematic analysis highlights the dominance of terms such as economy, consumption, fiscal, investment, and financing, underscoring the role of fiscal policy as an economic accelerator. Strategically, the Purbaya Effect shapes market perceptions, public expectations, and fiscal credibility, while opening pathways for long-term development through infrastructure investment and human capital enhancement. Nonetheless, expansionary fiscal measures carry risks of inflation, budget deficits, and crowding out, necessitating cross-sectoral coordination and macroprudential oversight. This study contributes to macroeconomic literature by introducing a novel conceptual lens and offers practical insights for designing inclusive, credible, and sustainable fiscal policy in Indonesia.
Analysis of Purbaya’s Economic Policy and Indonesia’s Economic Growth Prospects Towards 6% Purba, Jan Horas Veryady
West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship Vol. 4 No. 01 (2026): West Science Journal Economic and Entrepreneurship
Publisher : Westscience Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58812/wsjee.v4i01.2504

Abstract

This study analyzes the effectiveness of economic policies led by Purbaya in maintaining financial system stability and their contribution to achieving Indonesia’s economic growth target of 6 percent. Using a qualitative approach based on policy analysis and macroeconomic data, the study also employs word cloud techniques to identify dominant keywords in policy documents and Purbaya’s economic narratives. The research evaluates the foundations of structural policies, fiscal–monetary synergy, and the readiness of strategic sectors as engines of growth. The findings suggest that achieving 6 percent growth requires a consistent policy mix, improvements in labor productivity, accelerated regulatory reforms, and strengthened domestic and foreign investment. In addition, the study highlights external and domestic risks that may hinder target achievement, including global uncertainty, financial market volatility, and structural challenges in the MSME sector. These findings provide a comprehensive overview of opportunities and obstacles in realizing sustainable economic growth, while offering policy recommendations to enhance national economic resilience.
Co-Authors Aang Munawar Agustiani, Sabrina Andana, Esperaldy Muhammad Argoputro, Stanislaus Bandung Chasanah, Ratu Ainurisa Fathiah, Ritha Gen Gen Gendalasari Iriyadi Iriyadi Khim, Soei Maju Lumban Tobing Maulina, Dwi Mekaniwati, Ani Mumuh Mulyana Nurisnaini, Neni Purnomo, Suseno Hadi Satria, Wahyu Indra Septian, Muhammad Rayno Steven Steven Sudradjat Sudradjat Sukamto, Anton Sutrisno, Sutrisno Trifena, Trifena