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All Journal Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi BENTANG : Jurnal Teoritis dan Terapan Bidang Rekayasa Sipil JMM (Jurnal Masyarakat Mandiri) EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Specta Journal of Technology Jurnal Pengabdian UNDIKMA Buletin Statistika dan Aplikasi Terkini JOMPA ABDI: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM) PIKAT JPNM : Jurnal Pustaka Nusantara Multidisiplin Jurnal Sains, Nalar, dan Aplikasi Teknologi Informasi Equiva International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Mega Silfiani
Institut Teknologi Kalimantan
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Journal : Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications

 1 
PERBANDINGAN PENGELOMPOKKAN PUSAT KESEHATAN MASYARAKAT DI KOTA BALIKPAPAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE K-MEANS DAN FUZZY C-MEANS Farida Nur Hayati; Mega Silfiani; Diana Nurlaily
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2023): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol5iss1page55-66

Abstract

Balikpapan merupakan salah satu daerah penyangga IKN (Ibu Kota Negara) yang diharapkan dapat mempersiapkan diri untuk menyambut kebijakan pemerintah dalam membangun Ibu Kota baru di Kalimantan Timur. Tingginya tarikan faktor pemerintahan, ekonomi, dan politik yang akan terjadi di IKN akan menyebabkan tingginya migrasi. Hal itu harus diimbangi dengan kemampuan kota dalam memfasilitasi kebutuhan penduduknya terlebih pada aspek Kesehatan. Puskesmas merupakan fasilitas Kesehatan tingkat pertama yang memberikan pelayanan masyarakat. Terdapat beberapa program yang dilakukan puskesmas untuk mencapai kesejahteraan masyarakatnya antara lain kesejahteraan ibu dan anak (KIA), perawatan Kesehatan masyarakat, Kesehatan usia lanjut dll. Semua program pokok tersebut dikembangkan berdasarkan program pokok pelayanan kesehatan dasar seperti yang dianjurkan World Health Organization (WHO). Dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan analisis untuk mengelompokkan dan mengidentifikasi puskesmas yang memiliki karaketeristik yang sama sehingga akan sangat bermanfaat untuk mengetahui wilayah-wilayah yang perlu dilakukan peningkatan dan menjadi perhatian khusus dalam hal layanan Kesehatannya. Hal ini berguna untuk dapat mempersiapkan kebutuhan masyarakat pada aspek Kesehatan di wilayah sekitar IKN. Banyak metode yang dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi dan mengelompokkan puskesmas salah satunya adalah analisis cluster. Terdapat beberapa metode analisis cluster yang saat ini telah berkembang antara lain metode K-Means dan Fuzzy C Means.
MODEL GABUNGAN (ANSAMBEL) SARIMA DAN JARINGAN SARAF TIRUAN UNTUK PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK Mega Silfiani
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 5 No 2 (2023): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol5iss2page193-200

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the efficacy of employing artificial neural networks in conjunction with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) ensemble for forecasting electrical load. The SARIMA ensemble comprises members generated by varying autoregressive orders or moving averages. Subsequently, these SARIMA ensemble members are integrated using artificial neural networks. The datasets encompass monthly electrical load data pertaining to households, businesses, industries, and the public, spanning from January 2016 to December 2020. The findings demonstrate that across various categories, SARIMA ensemble-based artificial neural networks demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to alternative models. Future research endeavors should focus on exploring diverse methodologies for both creating and amalgamating ensemble members.
ECONOMIC PROJECTION OF BALIKPAPAN AS A BUFFERING CITY FOR INDONESIA’S NEW CAPITAL Silfiani, Mega; Fitriani, Yustina
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 7 No 2 (2025): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol7iss2page209-218

Abstract

As part of Indonesia’s capital relocation plan to East Kalimantan, Balikpapan plays a critical role as a supporting city, facing opportunities and challenges in infrastructure, economic stability, and public services. This study forecasts two key economic indicators: monthly inflation and annual Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), using Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods. For monthly inflation, the SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12 model outperforms ETS(A,N,N) with a lower RMSE, providing higher accuracy in capturing inflation dynamics. For annual GRDP, both ETS(A,N,N) and ARIMA(0,0,0) yield similar accuracy, with ARIMA slightly better. These findings support data-driven planning to maintain price stability and foster economic growth. Accurate projections ensure Balikpapan’s readiness as a sustainable, resilient city, aligning with SDG 8 (Economic Growth) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
Co-Authors Agung Prabowo Akbar Taufik Amrullah Aprilianti, Dwi Savira Aulia Putri Salsabila Aulia, Aleyda Kania Farra Azka, Muhammad Christianto Credidi Khala Darwis, M. Daffa Rivaldy Diana Nurlaily Diana Nurlaily Dyah Wahyu Apriani Farida Nur Hayati Farida Nur Hayati Ferdy Novri Firdaus, Andi Adam Firman, Fahmi Fauzan Fitria, Irma Fitria, Irma Fitriani, Yustina Hanifatuzzuhro, Retno Lelly Winda Hariyadi, Fahri Dwi Hayati, Farida Nur Hermayanti, Naura Attya Hernanda, Yunissa Irawan, Hairul Irma Fitria Khoiriyah, Nurhastivania Sohifatul Lastiur, Sunrie Kristella Lembang, Gebryani Rante Lumintang, Indah Ayu Magh Heryan Tudaan Muhammad Iqbal Novelinda, Resti Nur Annisa Nurlaily, Diana Padli, Rianto Patricia, Michell Pratomo, Achmad Haryo Raaph, Nadya Alivia Rabbani, Muhammad Abidzaar Rifqi Rama, Luthfy Ahmad Rezki, Surya Muhammad S, Hadiyyan Falakha Salfina Salfina, Salfina Sari, Dewi Leonita Sembiring, Brema Septiandra, Muhammad Rafly Suhartono Suhartono Surya Puspita Sari, Surya Puspita Wijayanti, Anis Fadillah Winda, Retno Lelly Zahra, Kayla Salbina