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Study of Economic Growth in IKN based on Autoregressive and Distributed Lag Approach Amelia, Dita; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Zah, Alfian Iqbal; Mutyaravica, Astrid
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 1 (2025): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i1.27513

Abstract

Indonesia's economy plays an important role in supporting national development and government policies in various sectors such as education, health, and infrastructure. In the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia's economy experienced an increase from the same period in 2022. East Kalimantan experienced significant growth supported by the mining sector, metal industry, and the National Capital City project. However, East Kalimantan is dependent on raw material exports and faces challenges in economic transformation. The government aims to increase exports of processed products to reduce poverty and unemployment. This study analyzes whether economic growth in IKN affects the economy of East Kalimantan, by considering inflation, CPI, export value, and GRDP. This study uses quantitative research methods using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with the advantage that it can be used in models with different levels of stationary and does not matter the number of samples with the data used is secondary data from BPS. The best model obtained is ARDL (3, 3, 4, 3, 4) based on the smallest AIC value which shows the long-term and short-term relationship. Economic growth, export value, and GRDP from the previous quarter affect growth negatively, while GRDP from the same period and the previous quarter affect growth positively. In the long run, export value and GDP significantly affect growth. These results provide insights for the government in managing East Kalimantan's growth, supporting sustainable development and SDG achievement. The results of this study are expected to be a reference for the central government to make policies related to factors that affect Economic Growth in the hope of increasing economic growth in East Kalimantan. 
Gender Equality in Indonesian Employment: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (Mars) Analysis Dita Amelia; Toha Saifudin; Suliyanto Suliyanto; Aditya Syarifudin Akbar; Muhammad Rosyid Ridho Az Zuhro
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora Vol 13 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23887/jish.v13i2.76687

Abstract

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, laborers in Indonesia, men are still more dominant for a career in the world of work. This contradicts the prevailing regulations, where gender equality is also a government development priority in realizing equitable development. This study aims to identify the factors that influence the percentage of women who work in Indonesia. The Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) Method is suitable for extensive data and can model relationships of interactions between various variables. The variables analyzed were the average wage of female workers, gross regional domestic product at constant prices, female workers with at least a high school education, life expectancy, provincial minimum wage, and female workers who are heads of households. Based on the research results, the best model was obtained with a coefficient of determination of 90.8%. Some influential variables in the base function are Minimum Wage for Female Workers, Female Workers with at least a high school education, Life Expectancy, and Female Workers who are Heads of Families. Based on the significant basis functions, the function that appears the most is Basis Function 5, which contains the predictor variable Average Wage of Female Workers, which shows a positive relationship with the Percentage of Female Workers with Labor Status in Indonesia. Meanwhile, based on the importance of the predictor variables, the top two are Female Workers with at least a high school education and Female Workers who are Heads of Households.