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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat (Journal of Public Service) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Ardi Kurniawan
Airlangga University
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Estimasi Interval Kredibel Distribusi Normal Terpotong Kiri pada Data Waktu Sembuh Pasien Covid-19 Putri Fardha Asa Oktavia Hans; Ardi Kurniawan; Sediono; Elly Ana; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 15 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (232.386 KB) | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol15.no1.a5285

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. One of the government's efforts to get out of the epidemic is to conduct an analysis based on existing data. The purpose of this study was to estimate the credible interval of the left truncated normal distribution. The results of the estimated credible intervals obtained have an implicit form so that they are solved by using a numerical integral approach. The results of this study were applied to the recovery time of Covid-19 patients from the Jemursari Health Center Surabaya in the range of December 2020 to February 2021. Through left cutting, the parameter estimation process only uses data that is more than 10 days, so that 37 data is obtained from a total of 45 data. It was found that the average recovery time for left-cut Covid-19 patients was between 10.583 days to 11.087 days. Meanwhile, the variance of recovery time for Covid-19 patients is cut left between 1.706 days to 1.772 days.
Designing Standard Growth Chart Based on Weight-For-Age Z-Score of Children in East Java Using Least-Square Spline Estimator Nur Chamidah; Ardi Kurniawan; Toha Saifudin
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v4i2.38917

Abstract

Children would be categorized as children who have underweight nutritional status, if according to index of anthropometric they have a lack of weight. In Indonesia, this anthropometric index is recorded on a Card Toward Health called as KMS. This card follows the WHO-2005 standard which is designed based on samples from Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman, and USA. Those samples, of course, physically are very different from Indonesian children. Therefore, in this paper we design weight-for-age Z-score standard growth charts of children by using least-square spline estimator and samples of children from East Java province, Indonesia. Next, the proposed children standard growth charts are used to assess East Java children nutritional status. The results show that the proposed standard growth charts have met the goodness of fit criteria namely the average values of coefficient determination for boy and girl are close to one, and values of mean square errors are close to zero. It means that the proposed growth charts are more suitable to be used to assess the nutritional status of East Java children, because they can better explain the real conditions of children in East Java, Indonesia than the WHO-2005 standard growth charts.
Analisis Tingkat Kepuasan Masyarakat Terhadap Pelayanan BPJS Kesehatan Cabang Utama Surabaya Dengan Metode Customer Satisfaction Indeks dan Importance Performance Analysis Putri Nur Farida; Ardi Kurniawan; Sediono; Dita Amelia
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no1.a6966

Abstract

Kesehatan merupakan hak asasi manusia dan salah satu unsur kesejahteraan yang harus diwujudkan sesuai cita-cita bangsa Indonesia. Diperlukan pembentukan badan penyelenggara yang berbentuk badan hukum pelayanan publik salah satunya BPJS Kesehatan yang bertujuan untuk memberikan jaminan berupa perlindungan kesehatan kepada masyarakat, serta diharapkan dapat memberikan pelayanan kualitas yang bermutu baik, karena kepuasan merupakan aspek yang paling penting bagi instansi pemerintahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat kepuasan masyarakat terhadap Kantor BPJS Kesehatan dengan data yang digunakan sejumlah 100 responden. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Customer Satisfaction Indeks yang merupakan indeks untuk menentukan tingkat kepuasan pelanggan secara menyeluruh menggunakan pendekatan yang mempertimbangkan tingkat kepentingan dari atribut atribut produk dan jasa yang diukur dan Importance Performance Analysis yang merupakan merupakan salah satu teknik penerapan yang mudah untuk mengatur atribut dari tingkat kepentingan dan tingkat pelaksanaan itu sendiri. Hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa metode CSI sebesar 82,038 % yang berarti masyarakat merasa sangat puas terhadap pelayanan di Kantor BPJS Kesehatan Cabang Utama Surabaya, pada metode IPA menunjukkan pada kuadran I,II,III,IV masing masing terdapat 11, 1, 9, dan 1 variabel, dan variabel yang pelu ditingkatkan adalah kuadran II, yaitu kecepatan dalam menangani keluhan secara online melalui saluran telepon dan email.
Estimation of Survival Function in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Using the Kaplan-Meier Method Ardi Kurniawan; Adelia Frielady Yosifa; Vrisca Natalia Putri Wardhani; Azizatul Kholidiyah
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no1.a7289

Abstract

Analisis data uji hidup atau analisis survival adalah kumpulan metode statistik yang digunakan untuk menjawab pertanyaan yang berkaitan dengan apakah dan kapan suatu peristiwa terjadi. Data daya tahan hidup yang diperoleh berupa data tersensor tipe I yang dianalisis menggunakan Metode Kaplan-Meier atau Metode Produk Limit. Sampel tersensor tipe I adalah cara pengambilan sampel secara statistik didasarkan pada lama pengamatan yang telah ditentukan sebelumnya. Metode Kaplan-Meier merupakan salah satu metode yang digunakan untuk mengestimasi fungsi survival dalam analisis data uji hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi daya tahan hidup seorang penderita kanker kepala dan leher. Kanker kepala dan leher adalah jenis kanker yang paling umum di dunia dan terdiri dari berbagai kelompok tumor yang mempengaruhi saluran aerodigestive bagian atas. Penelitian dimulai dengan menentukan data tersensor dan tipe sensor, kemudian menghitung estimasi fungsi survivor. Fungsi survivor merupakan probabilitas individu atau suatu objek tertentu untuk tetap bertahan setelah melewati suatu satuan waktu. Data pada penelitian ini adalah Data Kanker Kepala dan Leher Northern California Oncology Group. Kelompok pasien kanker kepala leher diobati dengan terapi radiasi plus kemoterapi (RCT) dengan 45 pasien. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pasien kanker kepala dan leher yang menjalani pengobatan RCT memiliki peluang bertahan hidup semakin kecil seiring berjalannya waktu.
Survival Analysis and Hazard of Log Logistic Distribution on Type I Censored Data Parametrically Ardi Kurniawan; Ruth Hosana; Ni Wayan Widya Septia Sari
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v5i2.47040

Abstract

Survival Analysis is a research method that examines the survival time of individuals or experimental units in relation to events such as death, disease, recovery, or other experiences. This study utilizes a parametric survival analysis model with a 2 parameter log logistic distribution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method to analyze the survival of students during their study period. The log logistic distribution is chosen due to its ability to capture early or late failure patterns. The objective of this research is to analyze type I censored survival data using the log logistic distribution applied to secondary data on student study duration. The dataset consists of 98 observations. The calculated values for the β and γ parameters of the 2 parameters log logistic distribution are 2.12831 and 0.0918891, respectively. The probability of students completing their studies by semester 8 (hazard function h(8)) is 0.370102, while the probability of students continuing their studies in semester 9 (survival function s(9)) is 0.320817.
Bayes Estimator of Exponential Distribution Parameters of Type II Censored Data with Linear Exponential Loss Function Method Based on Jeffrey Priors Anggara Teguh Previan; Ardi Kurniawan; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Sediono Sediono
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2023): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v4i2.22549

Abstract

Survival analysis is often used in the application of analyzing the survival of an object such as living things or objects. This analysis is identical to data censoring which is divided into three, namely: type I, II, and III censored data. Type II censored data is data censoring done by determining the number of objects to be analyzed  from the total number of observation objects . Type II censored data is used when the analysis is intended to maximize the results of the analysis. Bayesian Linear Exponential (LINEX) loss function is one method that can be used to estimate parameters in survival analysis by minimizing the expected value of LINEX. The purpose of this study is to determine the Bayesian LINEX loss function parameter estimation on type II censored data using exponential distribution. This method uses the concept of posterior distribution and prior distribution. The prior distribution used is the Jeffrey prior distribution which has objective properties and is based on Fisher information theory The application of the parameter estimation results is carried out on the survival data of lung cancer patients obtained from the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Based on the results of parameter estimation, it is concluded that the greater the value of the controller  (a) can produce a smaller value of parameter estimation results (θ^) . The results of this study can be used as a reference in conducting survival tests using type II censored exponential distribution data using the LINEX loss function method based on Jeffrey priors.
Indeks Pembangunan Gender Indonesia dalam Perspektif Pendekatan Spasial dengan Pembobot Queen Contiguity Dita Amelia; Made Riyo Ary Permana; Adelia Frielady Yosifa; Ardi Kurniawan; Suliyanto Suliyanto
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol 21, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/limits.v21i2.20260

Abstract

Isu gender menjadi fokus global karena ketimpangan dalam hak-hak dan kontribusi laki-laki dan perempuan dalam pembangunan. Pencapaian Indeks Pembangunan Gender (IPG) menjadi tolok ukur penting dalam upaya mencapai kesetaraan gender dan pembangunan manusia yang inklusif di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan Indeks Pembangunan Gender di Indonesia dengan pendekatan regresi spasial dengan variabel-variabel yang diduga mempengaruhi IPG. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah regresi spasial dengan pembobot Queen Contiguity. Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan dengan tiga jenis pemodelan didapatkan model terbaik dalam pemodelan Indeks Pembangunan Gender di Indonesia adalah model regresi spasial error dengan nilai AIC sebesar 154,950 dan nilai R2 sebesar 0,6643. Analisis spasial mengungkapkan adanya korelasi dan heterogenitas spasial antar wilayah, menyoroti pentingnya mempertimbangkan aspek spasial dalam merancang kebijakan untuk meningkatkan pembangunan gender di Indonesia. Dengan demikian, upaya perbaikan dan kesetaraan gender sebaiknya diterapkan dengan mempertimbangkan variabilitas spasial serta fokus pada aspek-aspek yang telah diidentifikasi melalui pemodelan ini.
IMPROVING EDUCATION AND DETERMINING THE NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF TODDLERS IN REALIZING NUTRITION-CONSCIOUS FAMILIES IN BANYUWANGI USING R-SHINY Nur Chamidah; Ardi Kurniawan; Toha Saifudin; Andini Sa'idah; Ayu Widyawati; Sofia Fajrina
Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat (Journal of Public Services) Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): JURNAL LAYANAN MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jlm.v8i1.2024.061-073

Abstract

Stunting is a condition where a child's development and growth is disturbed, which has long-term impacts, including the potential for impaired brain development due to insufficient cognitive development and a greater risk of developing chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, cancer, and so on. One effort to reduce stunting rates is to increase knowledge of nutrition awareness in the family. UNAIR Statistics Study Program, participates in efforts to reduce stunting rates with community service activities (Pengmas), in the form of outreach activities regarding basic and practical knowledge in the form of workshops and training activities using R-Shiny based WEB and Android to determine the nutritional status of toddlers which can used anywhere and anytime. This community service activity was carried out in the working area of "‹"‹the Tampo Community Health Center, Banyuwangi, East Java, involving 62 female cadre representatives from 31 local posyandu. The results of this community service activity can increase knowledge regarding education and nutrition knowledge for toddlers in the context of achieving nutrition-aware families. This is proven by the results of statistical analysis of pre-test and post-test scores which conclude that there is an increase in scores from pre-test to post-test with a significance level of 5%. Based on the results of the feedback questionnaire given to participants, the posyandu cadre mother felt very satisfied with an average score of 86, gained useful knowledge, and made it easier for posyandu cadres to find out the nutritional status of toddlers.
Comparing Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Machine Learning Methods for Classifying Pneumonia in Indonesian Toddlers Ardi Kurniawan; Nur Azizah; Sheila Sevira Asteriska Naura
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 1 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i1.32418

Abstract

Pneumonia is a type of infectious and contagious respiratory disease that causes death in toddlers. According to the Indonesian Ministry of Health (2024), the coverage of pneumonia among toddlers in 2023 was 36.95% with a total of 416,435 cases. This study aims to model and classify the pneumonia status of toddlers in Indonesia using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method and several machine learning methods, such as logistic regression, K-NN, random forest, and SVM. This study uses secondary data from the Survei Kesehatan Indonesia in 2023 and the Profil Kesehatan Indonesia in 2023, including variables such as the percentage of toddlers health service coverage, low birth weight babies, population density, percentage of malnutrition in toddlers, prevalence of smoking in the population aged ≥10 years in the last 1 month, percentage of toddlers who are exclusively breastfed, and percentage of toddlers who have incomplete basic immunization. The best model obtained using the MARS method is with BF = 14, MI = 2, and MO = 3. This model produces a GCV value of 0.122 and R-Square of 82.9%, which shows good prediction performance. The classification results show that the MARS method is superior to the logistic regression, K-NN, random forest, and SVM methods with an accuracy rate of 97.06%.
Co-Authors Adelia Frielady Yosifa Adelia Frielady Yosifa Ana, Elly Andini Sa'idah Anggara Teguh Previan Ayu Widyawati Azizatul Kholidiyah Dita Amelia M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Made Riyo Ary Permana Ni Wayan Widya Septia Sari Nur Azizah Nur Chamidah Putri Fardha Asa Oktavia Hans Putri Nur Farida Ruth Hosana Salsabylla Nada Apsariny Sediono, Sediono Sheila Sevira Asteriska Naura Sofia Fajrina Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Vrisca Natalia Putri Wardhani