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Growth, Industrial Structure, and Carbon Emissions in ASEAN: A Panel Data Analysis Gunarto, Toto; Hadiyati, Sri; Hudani, M Mufti; Ciptawaty, Ukhti; Afif, Fadeli Yusuf
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) Edisi Desember 2025
Publisher : Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jrie.v5i3.342

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between economic growth, industrial growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in ASEAN countries over the period 2010–2020, with particular emphasis on the interaction between economic expansion and industrial structure. Using balanced panel data from nine ASEAN economies and employing panel regression techniques, the analysis evaluates both the direct and conditional effects of growth on environmental outcomes. The results indicate that economic growth and industrial growth each have a positive and statistically significant impact on carbon emissions. More importantly, the interaction term between economic growth and industrial growth is also positive and significant, suggesting that the environmental impact of GDP growth is amplified in economies experiencing stronger industrial expansion. These findings imply that economic growth in ASEAN remains closely linked to energy-intensive industrial activities, limiting progress toward emissions reduction. By explicitly modeling the interaction between growth and industrial structure, this study contributes to the environmental economics literature by providing a more nuanced understanding of the growth–emissions nexus in developing regional contexts.
The Relationship Between Granger Causality Analysis and Indonesian Trade and Economic Growth. Yuliansyah, Yuliansyah; Gunarto, Toto; Ciptawaty, Ukhti; Ninidien, Qurrota Ayu; Afif, Fadeli Yusuf
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol 14 No 3 (2025): Volume 14 Nomor 3 Tahun 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jep.v14i3.4433

Abstract

These findings confirm that the contribution of domestic assets to economic growth is relatively limited, which is in line with the literature that emphasizes the more dominant role of foreign direct investment, household consumption, and fiscal and monetary policies in influencing the Indonesian economy. Second, the causality test on foreign assets also shows similar results, namely that economic growth has not been proven to affect changes in foreign assets, and vice versa. Based on the findings of this study, the recommendation for the government is to implement economic development policies that are more focused on strengthening the domestic foundation, particularly by encouraging productive investment, increasing the competitiveness of the real sector, and strengthening household consumption, which has been proven to be more significant in driving economic growth