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Yuliana Susanti, Yuliana
Program Studi Agroteknologi
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Transportation Veterinary Other

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Journal : Journal of Informatics Management and Information Technology

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Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia dengan Model Hibrida ARIMA–FTS Cheng Kusuma, Erin Jihan Wahyu; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana
Journal of Informatics Management and Information Technology Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): July 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jimat.v5i3.629

Abstract

Economic growth is a key indicator of successful economic activities, with adequate crude oil availability playing a crucial role in supporting a country's economic development. This study aims to forecast Indonesian crude oil prices using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)–Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng hybrid model. The data utilized consists of monthly Indonesian crude oil prices from January 2013 to April 2023 for training and from May 2023 to December 2024 for testing. The training data is modeled using ARIMA, and the residuals from the ARIMA model are subsequently analyzed using the FTS Cheng approach. The hybrid ARIMA-FTS Cheng forecast is generated by combining the predictions from both the ARIMA and FTS Cheng models. The results of the study show that the hybrid ARIMA–FTS Cheng model produced an MAPE of 7.46% on the training data and 4.57% on the testing data. Therefore, the ARIMA–FTS Cheng hybrid model is considered suitable for forecasting Indonesia's crude oil prices.
Co-Authors Alfiah, Lufita Nur Andreas Rony Wijaya Aristiarto, Rio Arnandya, Evelyn Regita Astuti, Arinda Tri Brilianto, Maximilianus Noel Edward Bahar Elwi Handajani, Sri Sulistijowati Handayani, Sri Sulistijowati Hilyatul Hilwy, Sarah Irwan Susanto Isnandar Slamet, Isnandar Kiki Ferawati Kusuma, Erin Jihan Wahyu Mahmudah, Arik Manalu, Anggiat Nareswari, Lintang Pramesti Nirwana, Muhammad Bayu Nugrahani , Isnaini Dyah Nurfauziyyah, Nuha Pratama, Alfito Putra Fajar pratiwi, hasih Putra, Sona Syah Qona’ah, Niswatul Raditya, Dionisius Indra Ratri, Aninda Puspa Respatiwulan, Respatiwulan Rina Febrinova, Rina Setiawan, Crisma Devika Sri Subanti Sucipto, Christy Sheldy Sugiyanto - Susilotomoa, Dhestahendra Citra Triyazulfa, Azkiya Winita Sulandari Zukhronah, Etik