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All Journal TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics LEMMA: Letters Of Mathematics Education MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Eksakta : Berkala Ilmiah Bidang MIPA Jurnal Varian Pelita Eksakta Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Journal of Applied Data Sciences Journal of Science and Technology MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Journal of Mathematics UNP UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Devni Prima Sari
Universitas Negeri Padang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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PENINGKATAN KEMAMPUAN GURU DALAM VISUALISASI DATA UNTUK PENELITIAN TINDAKAN KELAS MELALUI PELATIHAN MICROSOFT EXCEL DAN QUIZIZZ Devni Prima Sari; Fadhilah Fitri; Maulani Meutia Rani
Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8, No 1 (2025): MARTABE : JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Tapanuli Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31604/jpm.v8i1.286-294

Abstract

Pelatihan bertujuan untuk meningkatkan keterampilan guru dalam menganalisis dan memvisualisasikan data, mendukung pengambilan keputusan berbasis bukti di kelas. Fokus pelatihan ini adalah penggunaan alat analisis data, seperti Microsoft Excel dan Quizizz, yang membantu guru memahami dan menyajikan data secara efektif. Hasil pelatihan menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan dalam keterampilan visualisasi data peserta, di mana guru-guru lebih mampu mengaplikasikan fitur grafik dan diagram untuk menampilkan hasil pembelajaran secara jelas dan menarik. Dengan peningkatan ini, guru-guru menjadi lebih siap dalam merencanakan dan melaksanakan Penelitian Tindakan Kelas (PTK), yang memungkinkan mereka menghasilkan solusi berbasis bukti untuk meningkatkan efektivitas pembelajaran. Pelatihan ini diharapkan dapat memperkuat peran guru sebagai agen perubahan dalam pendidikan, mendorong peningkatan kualitas pendidikan di sekolah dan masyarakat secara keseluruhan.
IHSG Closing Price Prediction on the Indonesian Stock Exchange using the Geometric Brownian Motion Model Sukra Hamna; Devni Prima Sari
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol4-iss2/486

Abstract

Being among the leading primary benchmarks reflecting the health of the equity market in Indonesia, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) experiences ongoing price movements shaped by a wide spectrum of domestic and international forces. The inherent unpredictability of these movements underscores the critical need for reliable forecasting methods to guide investors in their decision-making process. In response to this, the present study applies the Geometric Brownian Motion model as a tool for projecting the daily closing values of the IHSG, owing to its well-recognized ability to represent the random characteristics inherent in financial time series. The dataset utilized comprises daily closing price records of the IHSG throughout 2025. The analysis includes the calculation of log returns, normality testing using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and estimation of drift and volatility parameters. Forecasting is performed using simulation with 50 and 1000 iterations, where the initial value is based on the last observed closing price. The findings reveal that the Geometric Brownian Motion model demonstrates a solid capacity to reflect the volatile behavior of IHSG movements, yielding MAPE figures of 4.50% and 2.81%, which correspond to a very high level of predictive precision. A greater number of iterations was found to produce more consistent and dependable projections, while the estimated values broadly align with the overall trajectory of historical data, notwithstanding the element of randomness embedded in the model. Therefore, the GBM model can be considered an effective method for forecasting stock price movements, particularly for highly volatile market indices such as the IHSG.
Survival Analysis of Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease at Dr Achmad Darwis Regional General Hospital Using the Kaplan-Meier Method Mei Syarah Anis; Devni Prima Sari
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v3i2.43

Abstract

Abstract. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health problem with a steadily increasing incidence. In West Sumatra, its prevalence is recorded at 0.2%, with the highest proportion occurring in individuals aged 45–54 years. Although relatively low, CKD still has a substantial impact on patients' quality of life. To date, data on the survival probability of CKD patients at the regional level, particularly in the district where this study was conducted, remain limited and require further investigation. This study aims to determine the overall survival probability of CKD patients and to examine the factors that influence survival, such as age, sex, disease stage, history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, anaemia, heart disease, and smoking. This study employs survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test to compare differences between groups. The results show that the overall survival probability of the 140 patients declined significantly over the four-year observation period. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a sharp decline in survival probability within the first 12 days of treatment, with only 20.9% of patients remaining alive by day 12. Based on the log-rank test, the factors significantly associated with survival were age, history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and heart disease. These findings underscore the importance of early detection and integrated management of comorbidities in clinical practice, as they may help improve survival outcomes and guide healthcare planning for CKD patients in regional settings.
Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method in Forecasting Chicken Egg Prices in Indonesia Wardah Hasna Afifah; Devni Prima Sari
MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology Vol 10 No 1 (2025): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/must.v10i1.26370

Abstract

Chicken eggs are one of the widely known food commodities and are routinely used for daily food menus. Therefore, the price often fluctuates. So that the forecasting of chicken egg prices in Indonesia is very necessary so that the government can monitor price stability and plan future steps. The method that is suitable for this forecast is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The results of data analysis using the SARIMA method show that the best model used for forecasting is SARIMA (2,1,3)(0,1,1)12. This model has a Mean Square Error value of 815267 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 4% so it is good for forecasting. From this model, it is estimated that the price of broiler chicken eggs will tend to fluctuate and increase in the next 24 months, namely from January 2025 to December 2026. Keywords: price, chiken eggs, forcasting, sarima method.
SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PEMILIHAN SMARTPHONE TERBAIK MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY SIMPLE ADDITIVE WEIGHTING Fadil Ahmat Zikran; Devni Prima Sari
MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology Vol 11 No 1 (2026): JULI
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/must.v11i1.31435

Abstract

The rapid development of smartphone technology has created challenges for university students in selecting devices that best support their academic activities. This study aims to determine the most suitable smartphone for students of the Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang, Class of 2022. The decision-making process integrates the Cut Off Point (COP), Rank Order Centroid (ROC), and Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting (FSAW) methods. The research data were collected through questionnaires distributed to 71 student respondents. Eight mid-range smartphone    alternatives, priced between IDR 3,000,000 and IDR 5,000,000 as of February 2026, were evaluated based on the results of the COP selection process. Of the six initial criteria, five were identified as relevant, namely RAM, battery, price, camera, and operating system, while screen size was eliminated. The criterion weights were determined objectively using the ROC method, whereas the FSAW method was employed to calculate the preference values and rank the smartphone    alternatives. The results indicate that the Poco X7 Pro achieved the highest preference value of 0.92 and was classified as Highly Recommended, followed by the iQOO Z9 5G with a preference value of 0.78 and the Redmi Note 14 Pro 5G with a preference value of 0.64. The findings provide smartphone recommendations that align with the priority needs of students in the Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang, and can assist them in selecting devices that support academic activities, including data processing, computational tasks, and digital learning, while remaining within their budget.
Digital Gold Price Prediction on Indogold Platform Using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model Devni Prima Sari; Siti Syadza Najiba
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 10 No. 4 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v10i4.13524

Abstract

The digital gold market in Indonesia has experienced significant growth, with transaction values reaching IDR 53.3 trillion during January–November 2024, representing a 556 percent increase compared to the previous year. Despite this rapid growth, digital gold prices exhibit high volatility characterized by volatility clustering and conditional heteroskedasticity that conventional time series models cannot adequately capture. Although the GARCH model has been widely applied to predict physical gold prices, no prior study has specifically examined digital gold price volatility on Indonesian fintech-based trading platforms. This study aims to construct a univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model based solely on historical price movements to predict digital gold prices on the Indogold platform and evaluate its predictive accuracy. Accordingly, the proposed model relies exclusively on historical price data and does not incorporate external macroeconomic variables, such as exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, or international gold prices. The data used consisted of weekly closing prices of digital gold on the Indogold platform from January 5, 2020, to December 29, 2024, totaling 261 observations. Analysis was conducted using RStudio software through logarithmic return calculation, data splitting via trial and error (selected proportion 80%:20%), Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity testing, ARMA order identification through ACF and PACF plots followed by AIC-based model selection, ARCH-LM effect testing, GARCH model estimation, and Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM diagnostic testing. The best model identified was ARMA(2,2)-GARCH(1,1) with the conditional variance equation σₜ² = 0.000073 + 0.405334εₜ₋₁² + 0.476482σₜ₋₁². The model passed all diagnostic tests with Ljung-Box p-value = 0.3362 and ARCH-LM p-value = 0.9999. Prediction accuracy evaluation on the test data yielded MAPE = 1.8141%, which is categorized as highly accurate according to Lewis (1982), indicating strong price forecasting performance; however, its suitability as an investment decision-making tool requires further evaluation of return, risk, and trading strategy performance beyond price accuracy alone.
Penerapan Model Black Litterman dalam Pembentukan Portofolio Optimal Saham Indeks LQ-45 Amelia Nurul Medika; Devni Prima Sari
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 11 No. 03 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v11n3.p551-559

Abstract

Salah satu investasi yang marak dimasyarakat yaitu investasi saham. Dalam berinvestasi saham tidak akan terlepas dari return dan risiko. Pastinya investor menginginkan return yang maksimal dengan risiko yang minimal. Hal tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan membentuk portofolio optimal. Salah satu metode untuk mendapatkan portofolio optimal dengan menerapkan model Black Litterman (BL). Model BL yaitu model yang dapat menangani kesalahan perkiraan portofolio dalam memperhitungkan return dengan menggabungkan dua sumber pengembalian yaitu return kesetimbangan pasar dengan return pandangan investor. Untuk informasi return kesetimbangan pasar akan menggunakan Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Sedangkan untuk informasi pengembalian return pandangan investor akan digunakan model-model time series. Penelitian menggunakan data harga saham penutupan mingguan LQ-45 pada periode Januari 2021-April 2023. Hasil penelitian diperoleh bobot portofolio optimal yaitu 78.06% dari saham TLKM, dan 21.94% dari saham UNTR. Kata Kunci: return, risiko, CAPM, Time Series, Black Litterman
Penentuan Premi Bersih Tahunan Asuransi Jiwa Dwiguna dengan Hukum De Moivre Anisa 1004; Devni Prima Sari
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 02 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Asuransi jiwa dwiguna merupakan gabungan asuransi jiwa berjangka dan asuransi jiwa dwiguna murni walau jangka waktu asuransi telah berakhir, pemegang polis akan memperoleh uang santunan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini ialah untuk mengidentifikasi premi tahunan bersih untuk asuransi jiwa dwiguna. Premi tahunan dipengaruhi oleh premi tunggal dan nilai tunai anuitas hidup awal. Perhitungan premi dalam konteks asuransi jiwa dwiguna, pendekatan menggunakan hukum De Moivre didasarkan pada distribusi seragam dan diterapkan untuk mengevaluasi mortalitas. Misalnya, dalam kasus seorang karyawan berusia 35 tahun dengan masa asuransi selama 30 tahun dan suku bunga sebesar 2,5%, hukum De Moivre digunakan untuk analisis. Santunan yang diterima Rp.100.000.000,-, didapat premi bersih tahunan asuransi jiwa dwigunanya dengan hukum De Moivre sebesar Rp. 3.154.482,-.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Adellia, Clara Febby Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie Afifah Humayrah Amelia Nurul Medika Anggraini, Fira Anisa 1004 arsilla uswatunnisa Danardono Danardono Dedi Rosadi Deswita, Siska Dina Agustina Dina Fakhriyana Emmelia Safani Fadhilah Fitri Fadhilah Fitri Fadil Ahmat Zikran Febri, Fera Malianis Filfiqri, Hamimatul Gulo, Trimodesman Hardinsyah Gusvira Widuri irwandi irwandi Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Jeri Jefrianto Lestari, Adika Risky Maulani Meutia Rani Media Rosha Mei Syarah Anis Miftha Delinda Muhammad Rashif Hilmi nur hafizah Pepi Novianti Prastika, Ifa Pratama, Tasya Putri Puja Ermiati Putri, Elisa Ananda Putri, Muthiara Hazimah Putri, Rahma Dana Putriyana Nursal Rara Sandhy Winanda Riri Indriani Rohadatul Aisy Sadli, Wanda Hamidah Siti Syadza Najiba Soleha, Annisa Sukra Hamna Sumita, Nurmaya Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tri Rahmayani Ulfasari Rafflesia Wardah Hasna Afifah Wardana, Yuni Yolandafitri Zulvia Yuki Fitria