Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
2.994
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Dinamik Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Sinkron : Jurnal dan Penelitian Teknik Informatika Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Data Sciences Indonesia (DSI)
Amir Mahmud Husein, Amir Mahmud
Unknown Affiliation
Computer Science & IT Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Physics

Published : 29 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search
Journal : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer

 1 
Analisis Tren dan Perkiraan Pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Peramalan Metode Prophet :Sebelum dan Sesudah Aturan New Normal Harahap, Mawaddah; Andika, Ahmad Zaki; Husein, Amir Mahmud; Dharma, Abdi
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 9 No 1: Februari 2022
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.2022914060

Abstract

Dalam menanggulangi penyebaran pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia, pemerintah telah menetapkan PSBB dan aturan Normal Baru namun laju penyebaran pandemi terus meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. Selain itu, ketidakpastian akan berakhirnya pandemi ini berdampak pada perubahan kondisi sosial. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk memfasilitasi perbandingan antara PSBB dan regulasi New Normal tentang perkembangan jumlah kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia dengan memetakan jumlah kumulatif kasus (kasus aktif, sembuh, dikonfirmasi dan meninggal). Metode Prophet digunakan untuk memprediksi kasus kematian dan terkonfirmasi dalam 30 hari ke depan. Analisis data visual dengan pendekatan Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) disajikan untuk memberikan pemahaman tentang perkembangan penyebaran pandemi di Indonesia. Pengujian kerangka analisis dilakukan dengan eksperimen untuk mengukur tingkat ketepatan prediksi metode Prophet dengan membagi kumpulan data historis periode 23 Maret 2020 - 31 Juli 2020, sedangkan data bulan terakhir dari kumpulan data periode 01 Agustus 2020 hingga 5 September 2020 digunakan sebagai target prediksi. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian metode Prophet memprediksi Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi sekitar 238.322 kasus dan kematian sekitar 9.609 hingga akhir September dengan tingkat kesalahan relatif dari estimasi yang dievaluasi dengan MAPE sekitar 23,9%. dan MAE sekitar 73,12 MAE. Hasil analisis visual penyebaran suatu pandemi juga disajikan dengan harapan dapat bermanfaat sebagai wawasan perkembangan jumlah kasus pandemi di Indonesia. Abstract In countering the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia, the government has set PSBB and New Normal rules but the rate of spread of the pandemic continues to increase from time to time. In addition, the uncertainty about the end of this pandemic has resulted in changing social conditions. This paper aims to facilitate a comparison between the PSBB and New Normal regulations on the development of the number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by mapping the cumulative number of cases (active, cured, confirmed and death cases). The Prophet method is used to predict confirmed cases and deaths within the next 30 days. Visual data analysis using the Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach is presented to provide an understanding of the development of the pandemic spread in Indonesia. The testing analysis framework was carried out by experiments to measure the level of prediction accuracy of the prophet method by dividing the historical data set for the period 23 March 2020 - 31 July 2020, while the last month data from the data set for the period 01 August 2020 to 5 September 2020 were used as prediction targets. Based on the results of the Prophet method testing it is estimated that Indonesia will experience an increase in the number of confirmed cases around 238,322 and cases of death around 9,609 until the end of September with the relative error rate of estimates evaluated with MAPE around 23.9% and MAE around 73.12 MAE. The results of a visual analysis of the spread of a pandemic are also presented in the hope that they will be useful as an insight into the development of the number of pandemic cases in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Abdi Dharma Ambarwati, Lita Andika Andika Andika Rahmad Kolose Sumangunsong Andika, Ahmad Zaki Andreas Simatupang Anugrah Putri, Gustie Vaniest Astasachindra, Rishi Banjarnahor, Prayoga Br Sihotang, Nurseve Lina Brandlee, Rio Christopher Christopher Damanik, Melky Eka Putra Dashuah, Ramonda Daulay, Tri Agustina Dodi Setiawan Fauza, Ra'uf Harris Feri Imanuel Fernandito, Peter Ginting, Deskianta Gracia, Andy Gulo, Befi Juniman Gulo, Steven Eduard Gultom, Atap Gunawan, Nico Hasibuan, Muhammad Haris Hendiko, Kennyzio HS, Christnatalis Hutauruk, Eben Kevin kevin Kevry Kosasi, Tommy Kwok, Shane Christian Larosa, Tri Putra Laurentius, Laurentius Leonardi, Jocelyn Linardy, Alvin Livando, Nicholas Lovely, Veryl Lubis, Fachrul Rozi Manik, David Hamonangan D. Mawaddah Harahap, Mawaddah Muhammad Arsyal, Muhammad Muhammad Khoiruddin Harahap Nainggolan, Yandi Tumbur Noflianhar Lubis, Kevi Ong, Derrick Kenji Phan, Gary Pratama, Panji Dika PUJI LESTARI Purba, Windania Purwanto, Eko Paskah Jeremia Salim Sidabutar, Daniel Shela Aura Yasmin Sihombing, Zein Adian Laban Silitonga, Benny Art Simanggungsong, Antonius Moses Simanjuntak, Andre Juan Simarmata, Allwin M Simarmata, Harry Binur Pratama Sinaga, Candra Julius Sinaga, Sutrisno Sinurat, Watas Sipahutar, Berninto Sirait, Agrifa Darwanto Siringo-Ringo, Dewi Sahputri Siti Aisyah Situmorang, Priskila Natalia C. Sormin, Pedro Samuel Syahputa, Hendra Tambun, Bella Siska Tambunan, Razana Baringin Daud Tampubolon, Hotman Parsaoran Tampubolon, Mei Monica Telaumbanua, Agustritus Pasrah Hati Tommy, Tommy Waren, Ashwini Waruwu, Seven Kriston William Chandra Willim, Alfredy Wizley, Vincent Yuanda, Yansan Yulizar, Dian Zagoto, Mariana Erfan Kristiani