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All Journal Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal
Yusti Faidah, Defi
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Mathematics

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Penerapan Metode Grey-Markov(1,1) Untuk Peramalan Penerimaan di Kantor Pengawasan dan Pelayanan Bea Cukai Tipe Madya Pabean Cikarang Mulya, Callista Audrey; Darmawan , Gumgum; Yusti Faidah, Defi; Ahdika, Atina
Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Vol. 4 No. 3 (2023): Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal
Publisher : Lembaga Intelektual Muda (LIM) Maluku

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54373/imeij.v4i3.431

Abstract

The Customs Supervision and Service Office is given a revenue target that must be achieved annually. However, revenue at the Customs Supervision and Service Office tends to fluctuate because it is strongly influenced by various external factors that are difficult to predict. Projections need to be done to see if the given revenue target can be achieved. This study aims to conduct forecasting so that it can be estimated how much revenue will be at the end of the year (December 2023). Research is conducted using the Grey(1,1) and Grey-Markov(1,1) models. The analysis results show that the Grey-Markov(1,1) model provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the Grey(1,1) model with a MAPE value of 5.390541% and a Posterior Error Ratio of 0.190644. These results show that the Grey Markov(1,1) model is more accurate than the Markov(1,1) mode, and that this method (Grey Markov(1,1)) is very good for forecasting with little data.
ANALISIS FAKTOR PENYEBAB PENYAKIT TBC DI JAWA BARAT MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI BINOMIAL NEGATIF Zeanova, Humaira; Taniwan, Peter; Aulia Putri, Rahma; Yusti Faidah, Defi
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i3.859

Abstract

The realization of "Indonesia Emas 2045" is significantly determined by the current Golden Generation. It is expected that this generation possesses high competence, quality, and innovation. As the most populous province in Indonesia, West Java plays a crucial role in achieving the vision of "Indonesia Emas 2045," particularly in the Human Development pillar through the enhancement of health standards. However, infectious diseases have become a major barrier to realizing this vision, with tuberculosis (TB) being one of the most prevalent. In 2023, there were 204,934 reported TB cases in West Java. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors influencing the number of TB cases in West Java. The data type for TB cases is count data, thus the approach used in this study is Poisson regression, with Negative Binomial regression as an alternative to address overdispersion. The results indicate that the number of community health centers (X1), the percentage of standard-compliant drinking water facilities (X2), and the Air Quality Index (X4) have a significant impact on the number of TB cases in West Java. This is demonstrated by the p-value of each variable, where variables X1, X2, and X4 all have a p-value of 0.0, except for the percentage of households with adequate sanitation (X3), which has a p-value of 0.063 in the Negative Binomial regression. Based on these factors, it is hoped that the government can optimize related programs and facilities to reduce the number of TB cases in West Java and contribute to realizing one of the pillars of "Indonesia Emas 2045."
Penerapan Metode Grey-Markov(1,1) Untuk Peramalan Penerimaan di Kantor Pengawasan dan Pelayanan Bea Cukai Tipe Madya Pabean Cikarang Mulya, Callista Audrey; Darmawan , Gumgum; Yusti Faidah, Defi; Ahdika, Atina
Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Vol. 4 No. 3 (2023): Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal
Publisher : Lembaga Intelektual Muda (LIM) Maluku

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54373/imeij.v4i3.431

Abstract

The Customs Supervision and Service Office is given a revenue target that must be achieved annually. However, revenue at the Customs Supervision and Service Office tends to fluctuate because it is strongly influenced by various external factors that are difficult to predict. Projections need to be done to see if the given revenue target can be achieved. This study aims to conduct forecasting so that it can be estimated how much revenue will be at the end of the year (December 2023). Research is conducted using the Grey(1,1) and Grey-Markov(1,1) models. The analysis results show that the Grey-Markov(1,1) model provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the Grey(1,1) model with a MAPE value of 5.390541% and a Posterior Error Ratio of 0.190644. These results show that the Grey Markov(1,1) model is more accurate than the Markov(1,1) mode, and that this method (Grey Markov(1,1)) is very good for forecasting with little data.
Co-Authors Aulia Putri, Rahma Darmawan , Gumgum Mulya, Callista Audrey Taniwan, Peter Zeanova, Humaira