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The Effect of Economic Growth, Investment and Unemployment on Poverty in Sulawesi Island from 2010 to 2024 Saputri, Desti; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1936

Abstract

Poverty remains an obstacle that continues to disrupt social welfare among communities on the island of Sulawesi. The objectives of this study are to determine the long-term effects of economic growth, investment and unemployment on poverty in Sulawesi Island; to examine the short-term effects in each province in Sulawesi Island; to determine whether there is an error correction adjustment mechanism; and to determine whether there is a causal relationship between economic growth and poverty. This study uses the Secondary Data Analysis (SDA) method with a quantitative correlational approach and uses the ARDL Panel analysis model. The study's outcomes reveal that economic growth, investment, and unemployment significantly reduce poverty across Sulawesi Island when examined over extended periods. Short-term provincial variations emerge as follows: North Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi experience positive effects from all three factors. In South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, economic growth and investment demonstrate negative effects, whereas unemployment shows positive effects. Gorontalo exhibits positive effects from economic growth and unemployment, though investment produces negative effects. West Sulawesi presents a mixed pattern, with economic growth reducing poverty while investment and unemployment increase it. Although error correction adjustments function across all provinces, only West Sulawesi demonstrates statistically significant adjustment processes. There is a causal relationship between economic growth and poverty.  Equitable economic growth and investment can certainly be felt by the poor, thus opening up opportunities to increase productivity, and vice versa. Meanwhile, unemployment certainly has a significant impact on poverty.
Analysis of the Impact of Unemployment Rates on Economic Growth in Java: The ARDL Panel Approach in Current Economic Dynamics Ramadhan, Alfa; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1937

Abstract

Economic growth plays an important role in the development of a country and the welfare of its people. One indicator that influences economic growth is the unemployment rate, which can reduce productivity and cause social problems. This research aims to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of unemployment rate, investment, inflation, and Human Development Index (HDI) on economic growth in the provinces of Java Island, as well as to assess the long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) in each region. This research uses secondary data analysis with a correlational quantitative approach. The research results show that in the long term, unemployment rate, investment, inflation, and HDI have a significant influence on economic growth. In the short term, the influence between variables differs across provinces: East Java shows significant influence from all variables, Central Java is influenced by unemployment rate, inflation, and HDI, while DKI Jakarta is influenced by unemployment rate and investment. Banten, West Java, and DIY do not show significant influence in the short term. The long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) is significant in East Java, but not significant in other provinces. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that macroeconomic variables have different influences across regions in Java Island, with East Java as the province that is most consistent in achieving long-term economic growth stability. The results of this research provide important implications for the formulation of region-based economic policies that consider the differences in characteristics and economic responses across provinces.