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Herlan, Mumtahanah Ceisa
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Ekspor terhadap PDB, Pengangguran, dan Inflasi di Indonesia Andriansyah, Umar; Maharani, Rafaela Suryadiva Indira; Zahra, Rasya Az; Herlan, Mumtahanah Ceisa; Arbain, Nabil; Budiasih, Budiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1773

Abstract

International trade provides opportunities for every country to export and import the commodities it produces in order to fulfill the need for goods and services. Goods and services that cannot be obtained domestically can be obtained through international trade. This can be increase foreign exchange for exporting countries. This study aims to determine the impact of export policies on GDP, unemployment, and inflation in Indonesia. The data used in this research comes from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) from 1986 to 2021. The analysis used is a system of simultaneous equations model using the Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) estimation method. Based on the research result, there is a positive relationship between export and GDP. In addition, exports also indirectly affect unemployment and inflation through GDP. From the simulation results, an increase in export will encourage economic growth, increase the unemployment rate, and reduce the inflation rate.
Pendugaan Area Kecil Persentase Anak Usia 0-17 Tahun yang Hidup di Bawah Garis Kemiskinan Tingkat Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2023 Puspitasari, Dwi Ajeng; Herlan, Mumtahanah Ceisa; Fatah, Saifullah; Sedana Nugraha, I Gusti Ngurah Yogi; Manik, Rizky Wahyuda; Istiana, Nofita; Yuniasih, Aisyah Fitri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.1967

Abstract

Poverty is a problem that continues to confront various countries in the world, with no exception in Indonesia. Poverty reduction is the main focus of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the 2020-2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN), with the main focus not only on the poverty of the national population but also the children who live in it. It is known that 47.39 percent, or almost half, of poor children in Indonesia are dominated by Java Island. Therefore, to be able to realize this target, it is necessary to have data availability in small areas, especially areas with a high percentage of poor children on Java Island. This study aims to estimate the percentage of children aged 0-17 years living below the poverty line at the city district level using the Small Area Estimation Hierarchical Bayes (SAE HB) method. Based on the results, estimation using the SAE HB method is able to produce a better Relative Standard Error (RSE) than direct estimation results.
Co-Authors Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih Andriansyah, Umar Arbain, Nabil Budiasih Budiasih Fatah, Saifullah Istiana, Nofita Maharani, Rafaela Suryadiva Indira Manik, Rizky Wahyuda Puspitasari, Dwi Ajeng Sedana Nugraha, I Gusti Ngurah Yogi Zahra, Rasya Az