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All Journal Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat MIPA dan Pendidikan MIPA ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Jurnal AbdiMas Nusa Mandiri Jurnal Statistika dan Sains Data
Brilliant, Indira Ihnu
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Penerapan Metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng dan Markov-Chain untuk Peramalan Indonesia Crude Oil Price (ICP) Fakhriyana, Deby; Brilliant, Indira Ihnu
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 6, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v6i1.79907

Abstract

In Indonesia, crude oil plays a significant role in the country’s economy as it serves as a source of income and meets the country's energy needs. Therefore, fluctuations in crude oil prices have a significant impact on the economic activities of the society. Forecasting the price of Indonesian crude oil is thus crucial. The international price of crude oil in Indonesia is known as the Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP). One commonly used statistical method for forecasting is the ARIMA method. However, the ARIMA method has certain assumptions that need to be fulfil, and many real-world data cannot meet these assumptions. Hence, forecasting using the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method, which does not rely on assumptions, is employed. Some popular FTS methods include the Cheng FTS method and the Markov Chain FTS method. This study implements the Cheng FTS and Markov Chain FTS methods on the ICP data from May 2018 to June 2023 to determine the most appropriate method for forecasting. The analysis results using the Cheng FTS method on the testing data yield a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 4,083%, while the Markov Chain FTS method has MAPE value of 4,585%. The Cheng FTS method selected as the appropriate model for forecasting the ICP data since it has a smaller MAPE value. Using the Cheng FTS method, the predicted ICP value for July 2023 is US$72,907 per barrel.Keywords: ICP; FTS Cheng; FTS Markov Chain; MAPE
Co-Authors Advani, Nadjma Maulidya Anggraini, Elsya Annindiya, Harsyta Atikah, Farahhuda Azizah, Farah Nur Bayyinah, Nurul Deby Fakhriyana, Deby Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa Eminugroho Ratna Sari Ezra Putranda Setiawan Fitriana Yuli Saptaningtyas Ilahi, Nayli Kurnia Isnaini, Bayutama Khalishah, Athayya Putri Kismiantini Kismiantini Latifatuzzahra, Istianah Luthfi, Zalfa Jihan Nashirah, Najla Nastiti, Kartika Tri Nur Insani Prahastiwi, Juanita Matni Putri Mawardi, Nariza Rahmadani Ratnasari, Andika Putri Raymond, Sherly Leyn Retno Subekti Rosita Kusumawati Rosyadani, Bilqis Salsabila Syah, Ajeng Ranaya Syahputra, Fathur Rahman Ummah, Karimatul Zahirah, Qurrota A'yun ‘Ibad, Muhammad Irsyadul