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Daryono, Mudrik Rahmawan
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Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake Palgunadi, Kadek Hendrawan; Simanjuntak, Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan; Ry, Rexha Verdhora; Daryono, Mudrik Rahmawan; Widiyantoro, Sri; Warnana, Dwa Desa; Triahandini, Agnis; Syaifuddin, Firman; Ahmadiyah, Adhatus Solichah; Sirait, Anne Meylani Magdalena; Suryanto, Wiwit
Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): February
Publisher : Directorate for Research and Community Services, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2025.57.1.10

Abstract

The Lembang Fault is one of the major faults in the province of West Java, approximately 10 km north of its capital, Bandung, a city inhabited by more than 2 million people. The fault exhibits distinct geometrical characteristics in its 29 km length, transitioning from normal, strike-slip, to vertical faulting mechanisms. Two studies have evidence of a normal fault with a dip direction to the north and a thrust fault with a dip direction to the south. Despite the lack of significant recorded earthquakes, the Lembang Fault is active and poses a high seismic hazard to the surrounding region. Previous deformation studies estimate that the fault could produce earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 to 7.0, though these estimates do not account for the fault's unique geometry, which includes bends at both its eastern and western ends. This geometrical complexity can significantly affect slip distribution, potentially leading to over- or underestimating earthquake magnitude. In this study, we assess the earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault using 3D dynamic rupture simulations that incorporate the fault's geometrical complexity, 3D velocity structure, and plastic deformation. Our simulations indicate that the fault's complex geometry enhances rupture slip to the east while halting it to the west, resulting in rupture along 80% of the fault's total length. However, according to our model, a self-sustained runaway rupture scenario occurs only if the fault is characterized by relatively weak apparent strength, subcritical stress, and overpressurization. This worst-case scenario could result in a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, posing a significant threat to the densely populated nearby city. Therefore, our findings have crucial implications for seismic hazard assessment around the Lembang Fault.
Interpreting Arc and Line Shapes in the Fault Ruptures of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand and the 2023 Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 East Anatolian Fault, Turkey-Syria Earthquakes: A Theoretical Approach Daryono, Mudrik Rahmawan; de Gelder, Gino; Patria, Adi
Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Vol. 56 No. 6 (2024)
Publisher : Directorate for Research and Community Services, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2024.56.6.1

Abstract

This study examined the arc and line shapes produced in the fault ruptures of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand and the 2023 Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 East Anatolian Fault earthquakes in Turkey-Syria. Theoretical fault mechanisms and physical laws of movement were used to interpret the conceptual geometry of the arc and line shapes, and kinematics force movement. Using computer-aided design (CAD) on the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) metric projection, this paper presents earthquake parameters defining the fault geometry, including straight lines and arc shapes with specific measurements such as radius, length, angles, and normal/perpendicular vectors. Comparative analysis revealed distinctions between the two seismic events. Specifically, the Kaikoura earthquake exhibited a smaller normal vector compared to the Turkey-Syria earthquakes. Further interpretation uncovered that the Kaikoura earthquake resulted from pressure exerted by the radius arc vector from both the south-east and north-west, aligning with the continuation of the north-easternmost fault rupture. This suggests that the primary fault vector aligns with the fault trend. In contrast, the Turkey-Syria earthquakes displayed two independent circuit systems. The first event in the Turkiye-Syria rupture underwent an orientation change or bending of about 137 degrees (from N24oE to N68oE). The normal vector of the second earthquake originated from the bending angle of the first earthquake, close to its hypocenter. The rupture of the Kaikoura earthquake followed a lineament orientation of N47oE, forming an approximately 10-km wide corridor, comprising both straight lines and arc shapes.
Co-Authors Adhatus Solichah Ahmadiyah, Adhatus Solichah de Gelder, Gino Dwa Desa Warnana Palgunadi, Kadek Hendrawan Patria, Adi Ry, Rexha Verdhora Simanjuntak, Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan Sirait, Anne Meylani Magdalena Sri Widiyantoro Suryanto, Wiwit Syaifuddin, Firman Triahandini, Agnis