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Geometrically Complex, Relatively Weak, and Subcritically Stressed Lembang Fault May Lead to a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake Palgunadi, Kadek Hendrawan; Simanjuntak, Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan; Ry, Rexha Verdhora; Daryono, Mudrik Rahmawan; Widiyantoro, Sri; Warnana, Dwa Desa; Triahandini, Agnis; Syaifuddin, Firman; Ahmadiyah, Adhatus Solichah; Sirait, Anne Meylani Magdalena; Suryanto, Wiwit
Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 57 No. 1 (2025): February
Publisher : Directorate for Research and Community Services, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2025.57.1.10

Abstract

The Lembang Fault is one of the major faults in the province of West Java, approximately 10 km north of its capital, Bandung, a city inhabited by more than 2 million people. The fault exhibits distinct geometrical characteristics in its 29 km length, transitioning from normal, strike-slip, to vertical faulting mechanisms. Two studies have evidence of a normal fault with a dip direction to the north and a thrust fault with a dip direction to the south. Despite the lack of significant recorded earthquakes, the Lembang Fault is active and poses a high seismic hazard to the surrounding region. Previous deformation studies estimate that the fault could produce earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 to 7.0, though these estimates do not account for the fault's unique geometry, which includes bends at both its eastern and western ends. This geometrical complexity can significantly affect slip distribution, potentially leading to over- or underestimating earthquake magnitude. In this study, we assess the earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault using 3D dynamic rupture simulations that incorporate the fault's geometrical complexity, 3D velocity structure, and plastic deformation. Our simulations indicate that the fault's complex geometry enhances rupture slip to the east while halting it to the west, resulting in rupture along 80% of the fault's total length. However, according to our model, a self-sustained runaway rupture scenario occurs only if the fault is characterized by relatively weak apparent strength, subcritical stress, and overpressurization. This worst-case scenario could result in a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, posing a significant threat to the densely populated nearby city. Therefore, our findings have crucial implications for seismic hazard assessment around the Lembang Fault.
Analisis Geometri Segmen Sianok Berdasarkan Hasil Relokasi Gempabumi Hady, Farrastha; Sirait, Anne; Supriyadi; Ahadi, Suaidi
Jurnal Geosains Terapan Vol 7 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Geosains Terapan
Publisher : Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64986/jgt.v7i1.125

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis geometri segmen Sianok berdasarkan hasil relokasi gempabumi, dengan fokus pada parameter arah strike, kemiringan (dip), panjang, dan kedalaman segmen. Wilayah penelitian terletak di sekitar segmen Sianok, dengan batas koordinat 100 BT–101° BT dan 0,8° LS–0,2° LU. Data yang digunakan berupa waktu tiba gelombang gempa (arrival time) dari BMKG dengan rentang waktu Oktober 2021 hingga April 2025. Relokasi dilakukan menggunakan metode double-difference (HypoDD) untuk memperoleh lokasi hiposenter yang lebih presisi.Hasil relokasi menunjukkan peningkatan akurasi posisi gempa, yang divalidasi menggunakan kurva residual, metode jackknife, uji robustness, serta analisis arah perpindahan melalui diagram rose dan diagram kompas. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, jalur sesar terbagi menjadi lima segmen dengan arah strike dominan barat laut–tenggara (NW–SE). Panjang segmen bervariasi antara 4,44 km hingga 13,32 km. Sebagian besar segmen memiliki kemiringan curam (dip > 65°), mencerminkan dominasi mekanisme sesar geser. Kedalaman hiposenter berada di kisaran 0–30 km, dengan konsentrasi pada kedalaman 5–15 km.Segmentasi sesar ini bersifat tidak kontinyu, ditunjukkan oleh pemisahan kluster gempa yang membentuk segmen-segmen terpisah, masing-masing dengan potensi kegempaan tersendiri. Temuan ini penting untuk pemodelan potensi bahaya gempa bumi di wilayah sekitar jalur sesar Sianok.
Fluid-related Earthquake Swarms at East Java Forearc Sirait, Anne; Fatchurochman, Iman
Jurnal Geosains Terapan Vol 5 No 2 (2022): Jurnal Geosains Terapan
Publisher : Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia

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Abstract

In this study, seismicity along the Java margin was analyzed to identify earthquake swarms. An earthquake swarm was identified in the year 2018. The 2018 earthquake swarm off eastern Java was in the subducting plate rather than on the subducting plate. We manually picked the P-phase arrival times and waveforms were cross-correlated to identify families of events in a swarm. Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of families of events in swarms indicated they were fluid-related. The earthquake swarm off eastern Java appears to be associated with over-pressured fluid trapped by impermeable rocks. The existence of this swarm is indicative of the origin of the swarm other than slow-slip events on the plate interface. The identification of earthquake swarms in this study reveals an origin of swarms other than the plate interface.
Analisis Bahaya Gempa Bumi Menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Pulau Madura, Jawa Timur Tulis, Jessica Stephanie; Sirait, Anne Meylani Magdalena; Supartoyo
Jurnal Geosains Terapan Vol 6 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Geosains Terapan
Publisher : Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia

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Abstract

Gempa bumi berkekuatan 4,8 SR yang terjadi pada 13 Juni 2018 pukul 20.06 WIB di Kabupaten Sumenep, Pulau Madura mengakibatkan 135 bangunan rusak. Usaha mitigasi bencana gempa bumi perlu dilakukan untuk meminimalisir dampak kerusakan dan kerugian jiwa hingga materiil. Salah satu caranya adalah dengan melakukan penelitian mengenai kemungkinan munculnya gempa bumi pada tingkat bahaya tertentu menggunakan metode PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). Nilai PGA terendah pada peta peta periode ulang gempa 2.475 tahun (PoE 2%) hasil penelitian memiliki rentang nilai 0,25 – 0,27 g, sedangkan pada peta milik SNI 1726:2019 memiliki rentang nilai 0,15 – 0,20 g yang keduanya berada di wilayah Kabupaten Sumenep. Nilai PGA pada peta periode ulang gempa 2.475 tahun (PoE 2%) hasil penelitian di Pulau Madura masuk ke intensitas MMI VII (very strong) hingga VIII (severe). Menurut grafik respon SA dalam periode 4 detik di lokasi kejadian gempa 13 Juni 2018, diperlukan revisi kode bangunan nasional SNI 1726:2019 dari percepatan tanah spektral tertinggi 0,45 g menjadi 0,61 g.