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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Inferensi Indonesian Community Journal Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM)
Idrus Syahzaqi
Department Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Science And Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Peningkatan Kompetensi dan Profesionalitas Warga Desa Tambaksawah Sidoarjo dalam Mengoperasikan Microsoft Excel Untuk Menuju Desa Yang Unggul dan Produktif Jannah, Sa'idah Zahrotul; Pusporani, Elly; Ana, Elly; Syahzaqi, Idrus; Makkiyah, Afifah Nur; Ramadhanti, Aulia; Ariyani, Azizah Dewi; Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina; Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana; Carista, Nashwa; Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 1 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (Maret 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/icom.v5i1.6272

Abstract

Tambaksawah Village, Sidoarjo, is an industrial village that has the potential to improve the quality of life. However, this village faces obstacles, such as the limited skills of village officials using Microsoft Excel and the minimal application of technology in village institutions. Community service programs using Microsoft Excel are useful in supporting village administration efficiency and encouraging productivity. The methods include on-site training, group mentoring, international certification, and certification exams. Training followed by mentoring is carried out for one month. The evaluation results show an increase in the average score from 50.4 to 60.16, which shows an increase the understanding of participants. Apart from 7 participants, only 5 participants succeeded in obtaining official certificates. This activity succeeded in improving participants' skills in operating Microsoft Excel, so it is hoped that this can be the first step to advancing technological capacity and can help in developing Tambaksawah Village.
MODELING AND FORECASTING THE TOTAL VOLUME OF GOODS TRANSPORTED BY RAIL IN INDONESIA USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) Syahzaqi, Idrus; Sediono, Sediono; Anggakusuma, Aurellia Calista; Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa; Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp829-842

Abstract

Transportation has an important role in supporting the mobility of people in Indonesia. Trains are included in the most widely used transportation category because they are effective and efficient, not only transporting passengers, trains also have a role in the distribution of goods. This study aims to model and forecast total volume of goods transported through rail transportation in Indonesia using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method because the data has seasonal trend. The data used comes from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from January 2013 to April 2024. The results were obtained that the SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model is the best model with a MAPE value of 0.96% which is included in the category of accurate model. In addition to being an additional insight, this research can also be a reference in the management of railway transportation considering the number of uses both passengers, the distribution of goods that continue to increase, and can be recommendation for other research that same topic with it.
Forecasting Futures Gold Prices Using Pulse Function Intervention Analysis Approach Miranda, Ariadna Sopia; Andriani, Putu Eka; Sediono, Sediono; Syahzaqi, Idrus
Inferensi Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v8i1.21979

Abstract

Gold is a precious metal that plays an important role in global trade and is often use as a financial standard in various countries. In 2024, gold prices surged sharply due to global macroeconomic factors, such as economic uncertainty, positioning gold as a safe haven for investors. Accurate predictions of future gold prices are crucial for helping investors make informed decisions and adapt to market changes. In line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8 on Decent Work and Economic Growth, this study uses the pulse function intervention analysis approach to predict gold prices by identifying patterns of changes in the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. This study aims to make a significant contribution to the use of comprehensive and relevant predictive tools by considering the effects of interventions, supporting investor decision-making, and contributing to economic growth. The best model was obtained at ARIMA (0,2,1) with intervention parameters b=0, r=2, and s=0. The prediction results show a close alignment with actual data, yielding a MAPE value of 1.289%. Additionally, this model produces the smallest AIC value of 1125.1, an SBC value of 1135.86, and an MSE value of 1403.11, demonstrating excellent predictive capability.
PREDICTION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN BANYUWANGI REGENCY USING SARIMA Syahzaqi, Idrus; Sediono, Sediono; Dyaksa, Mega Kurnia; Vionita, Anggi Triya; Ghasani, Anisah Nabilah
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 3 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss3pp2207-2218

Abstract

Climate change due to human activity has significantly impacted increasing global average temperatures, including in Banyuwangi Regency, East Java. The impact is felt in several sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, and health. As a preventive measure to minimize the adverse effects that will occur in the future, an accurate prediction of the average temperature of Banyuwangi Regency is needed. This research used secondary data from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Banyuwangi Regency per month from January 2012 to December 2023. Predictions are made using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. The best model is selected based on its fulfillment of stationarity, the significance of its parameters, and compliance with the assumptions of normality and white noise. From this method, the best model obtained to predict the average temperature of Banyuwangi Regency is the probabilistic SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12. The probabilistic SARIMA model treats both parameters and forecasts as probability distributions. The average temperature of Banyuwangi Regency is obtained for the next year, namely from January 2023 to December 2023, with a MAPE of 1.63%. With an accuracy rate of 98.37%, it can be said that the probabilistic SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model is accurate in predicting the average temperature of Banyuwangi Regency in the future. Thus, the prediction of the average temperature of Banyuwangi Regency is expected to help the community and government manage the impact of erratic climate change to improve the welfare of all Banyuwangi people.
Peramalan Jumlah Barang Kereta Api di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Syahzaqi, Idrus; Sediono, Sediono; Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa; Anggakusuma, Aurellia Calista; Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa
Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32665/statkom.v4i1.4424

Abstract

Background: Freight transportation is an important part of the business run by PT Kereta Api Indonesia. To support effective strategic planning and infrastructure development, an accurate prediction of the amount of goods to be transported in the future is required. Therefore, historical data-based forecasting methods such as Seasonal Autoregressive Interated Moving Average (SARIMA) can be a relevant approach to predict the number of railway goods in Indonesia. Objective: Obtain a suitable model to forecast the number of goods transported by rail transportation in Indonesia, and to determine the results of the forecasting. Methods: This research uses the time series method with the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averang (SARIMA) model approach based on data characteristics that show seasonal patterns. SARIMA itself is able to integrate seasonal pattern components in the data and is able to effectively capture periodic and structural dynamics in seasonal data. Results: The best model obtained is probabilistic SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12, using secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in the range of January 2013 to March 2024. Forecasting for the next 12 months (April 2023 to March 2024) shows a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 8.03% which indicates that the level of forecasting accuracy is very good. Conclusion: The probabilistic ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model can be used as a reliable reference in predicting the amount of goods transported through rail transportation in Indonesia.
SELECTING OPTIMAL PROCESS PARAMETERS OF Al2O3/C COMPOSITE USING GRA WITH PCA AND TAGUCHI’S QLF APPROACH Syahzaqi, Idrus; Rochmanto, Hani Brilianti; Ahsan, Muhammad
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 3 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (549.889 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss3pp1039-1050

Abstract

The aim of this study is to find the controlled factors affecting the mass density of the combined Al2O3/Cu. All experiments were carried out using powder metallurgy. Experiments were carried out with four controllable powder processing parameters, namely milling time, compaction pressure, sintering temperature, and holding time. The L18 mixed-level Taguchi Orthogonal Array was used for experimental because it is the basis for the analysis of the Taguchi method. In this research, statistical analysis is carried out using GRA with PCA and Quality Loss Function. The result was the best model based on the Quality Loss Function, because the method has the biggest determination coefficient value is 99,97% where the results is better than GRA with PCA. From the main effect table study, the optimal combination of parameters for response: mass density and hardness are A2B3C3D2 powder metallurgical process parameters, namely milling time of 360 minutes, compacting powder of 200 MPa, sintering of 7000C, and holding time of 20 minutes. The ANOVA results show that the compaction pressure has the most influential parameter that affects the response. The percentage contribution of compaction pressure is 87.09%. Based on ANOVA, the R-squared value is 99.97%, which means the tested factor variables can explain the density of the Al2O3/Cu composite by 99.70%. Therefore, only 18 experimental trials are needed to discover the reality of what will happen in the process.
MODELLING OF POVERTY PERCENTAGE IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE WITH SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPROACH Syahzaqi, Idrus; A., Salman Alfarizi P.; Fithriasari, Kartika
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0727-0734

Abstract

Poverty is an economic problem faced by all countries in the world, including Indonesia. Poverty is seen as the inability of a person from an economic standpoint to meet basic food and non-food needs as measured from the expenditure side. East Java Province is used as the object of research because this province has the highest economic growth in Java Island after DKI Jakarta province in the last 5 years. However, East Java is also included in the province with the highest number of poor people on the island of Java. Several independent variables that are thought to influence the percentage of poverty in East Java are the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), Life Expectancy Rate (AHH), Average Years of Schooling (RLS), Population Density, and GRDP Rate. Sources of research data come from the East Java BPS website and East Java Open Data. Data analysis was performed using a semiparametric regression approach. The results of the analysis obtained good performance values, namely the MSE value of 12,2156 and the R2 value of 98,71%.
GROUPING PROVINCES IN INDONESIA BASED ON THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES AFFECTED BY ENVIROMENTAL POLLUTION WITH K-MEDOIDS, FUZZY C-MEANS, AND DBSCAN Syahzaqi, Idrus; Effendi, Magdalena; Rahmawati, Hasri; Kuswanto, Heri; Sediono, Sediono
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0923-0936

Abstract

Pollution can cause the environment to not function properly and ultimately harm humans and other living things. Environmental pollution is a problem that needs to be resolved because it involves the safety, health, and survival of living things. Air pollution in Pekanbaru due to a long dry season has resulted in forest fires. Then, 70% of drinking water is contaminated by fecal waste. In addition, the contamination of the land by the Chevron company resulted in residents suing the company. Until now, there has been no research that has carried out a comparison between methods for grouping villages affected by environmental pollution at the provincial level in Indonesia, so it is important to select the best method for carrying out the grouping. The limitations of this research are the use of three methods for clustering: K-Medoids, Fuzzy C-Means, and DBSCAN. The results showed that Fuzzy C-Means with five clusters have an optimal value compared to DBSCAN with an ICD rate value of 0,351. This method can be used by the government to improve the quality of villages that are clean from pollution in Indonesia, monitoring and evaluation based on the clusters formed.
Peningkatan Kompetensi AKM Numerasi Guru SMAN 6 Surabaya Melalui Pembelajaran Interaktif sebagai Upaya Mendukung Kualitas Pembelajaran di Kelas Pusporani, Elly; Syahzaqi, Idrus; Sediono, Sediono; Ana, Elly; Melati, Adinda Tries; Salsabila, Ailsa Shafa; Riyanto, Aufa Muhammad Yogi; Ariyani, Azizah Dewi; Maulana, Bagas; Victoria, Deby; Ismi, Ferissa Maulida; Sangadji, Nurul Fajriah Deswani; Ibrahim, Rahmat Agung; Karima, Sasy Okti
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 3 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (September 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/i-com.v5i3.8022

Abstract

Perubahan kurikulum di Indonesia belum memberikan dampak signifikan terhadap peningkatan kompetensi siswa, sehingga pemerintah meluncurkan Asesmen Kompetensi Minimum (AKM) dengan fokus literasi dan numerasi. Di SMAN 6 Surabaya, siswa mengalami kejenuhan dalam pembelajaran numerik sehingga diperlukan upaya pendukung melalui program pengabdian masyarakat. Kegiatan ini bertujuan meningkatkan kompetensi guru dalam merancang pembelajaran numerasi kontekstual berbasis AKM. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi sosialisasi, pelatihan, pendampingan, serta publikasi dan keberlanjutan program selama satu bulan dengan peserta 40 guru. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan peningkatan skor rata-rata dari 45 (pre-test) menjadi 64 (post-test), serta tersusunnya modul pembelajaran interaktif dan soal AKM Numerasi. Kegiatan ini terbukti mampu meningkatkan kapasitas guru dalam mengimplementasikan strategi pembelajaran numerasi. Ke depannya, guru diharapkan terus mengembangkan kreativitas penyusunan soal, sekolah membentuk community of practice sebagai wadah berkelanjutan, serta dukungan pemerintah diperlukan melalui fasilitas dan kebijakan strategis.
Survival Time Analysis of Multiple Myeloma Patients using Type 1 Censored Exponential Distribution Parameter Estimation Wahyu Subekti, Cahya Arsyika; Nilasari, Inas; Syarif, Devi Mufidah; Syahzaqi, Idrus; Kurniawan, Ardi
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 3 (2025): July
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i3.32179

Abstract

Multiple myeloma is a type of blood cancer that attacks plasma cells in the bone marrow and affects the immune system. This study analyzes the survival time of patients with multiple myeloma using Type 1 censored exponential distributed parameter estimation. The data, consisting of 47 patients (35 uncensored and 12 censored), were tested for exponential distribution fit using the Anderson-Darling test, yielding a p-value of 0.495, confirming the suitability of the exponential model. The maximum likelihood estimation method was applied, resulting in a parameter estimate (θ ̂) of approximately 54.028 days, representing the mean survival time. Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals were conducted, with the 95% confidence interval for θ_0 ranging between 32 and 53 days. The findings suggest that the exponential distribution effectively models the survival data, providing insights into patient survival trends and supporting clinical decision-making.
Co-Authors A., Salman Alfarizi P. Ahsan, Muhammad Andriani, Putu Eka Anggakusuma, Aurellia Calista Ardi Kurniawan Ariyani, Azizah Dewi Carista, Nashwa Dyaksa, Mega Kurnia Effendi, Magdalena Elly Ana Elly Pusporani Fithriasari, Kartika Ghasani, Anisah Nabilah Hani Brilianti Rochmanto Heri Kuswanto Ibrahim, Auron Saka Ibrahim, Rahmat Agung Ismi, Ferissa Maulida Jannah, Sa'idah Zahrotul Karima, Sasy Okti Makkiyah, Afifah Nur Maulana, Bagas Melati, Adinda Tries Miranda, Ariadna Sopia muhammad mashuri Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska Nilasari, Inas Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa Rahmawati, Hasri Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanti, Aulia Riyanto, Aufa Muhammad Yogi Rosyadi, Niam Salsabila, Ailsa Shafa Sangadji, Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sediono, Sediono Sihotang, Raja Van Den Bosch Syarif, Devi Mufidah Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana Victoria, Deby Vionita, Anggi Triya Wahyu Subekti, Cahya Arsyika Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa