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All Journal Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Adini, Ertina Septia
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Environmental Science Mathematics Social Sciences

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Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Kasus Tuberculosis di Kabupaten Lombok Timur menggunakan Model Spatial Autoregressive Poisson Adini, Ertina Septia; Azizah, Efida; Hastuti, Siti Hariati; Ghazali, Muhammad
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 6, No 1 (2025): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v6i1.30913

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a deadly infectious disease caused by the bacteria Mycobacterium tuberculosis. According to the NTB Provincial Health Office, the number of TB cases in NTB Province was reported as many as 7,305 cases in 2019. East Lombok Regency in that year recorded 1,521 TB cases. The high number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency is an interesting reason to use statistical analysis techniques in modeling variables that influence the number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency. This study uses Spatial Autoregressive Poisson (SAR Poisson) analysis. This method is a development of the classical regression method by considering spatial dependence on the dependent variable, namely count data that follows the Poisson distribution. According to the results of the study, there is significant spatial dependence on the data based on the results of the Moran's I test. The results of the SAR Poisson modeling show that only the Population Density variable (X_4) has a significant effect on the number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency with a parameter value of -1.24 x 10^{-21}. The corrected determination coefficient showed quite high results with a value of 71.8\%, which means that the model can explain most of the variability in the data, which is an indication that the model has a good fit and high relevance to the data. The results of the mapping of the comparison of actual data and the estimated value of TB cases from the SAR Poisson model showed similar results. 
IMPLEMENTASI FUZZY POSSIBILISTIC C-MEANS UNTUK PENGELOMPOKAN KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT Gazali, Muhammad; Chandrawati, Chandrawati; Adini, Ertina Septia
Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Vol 11, No 1 (2026): Maret
Publisher : Universitas Galuh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25157/teorema.v11i1.20886

Abstract

Mapping regional health conditions is crucial for identifying disparities in healthcare services and determining priority interventions. West Nusa Tenggara Province faces persistent challenges, including the unequal distribution of healthcare facilities and a steady increase in infectious disease cases. This study aims to classify regencies/municipalities based on healthcare facility availability and infectious disease prevalence using the Fuzzy Possibilistic C-Means (FPCM) method. The variables analyzed include the number of community health centers, hospitals, and reported cases of tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, dengue fever, and diarrhea. Cluster validity was assessed using Partition Entropy (PE), Partition Coefficient (PC), and Modified Partition Coefficient (MPC), with the optimal configuration achieved at two clusters (PE = 0.6125, PC = 0.9799, MPC = 0.9698). The cluster profiles indicate that Cluster 1 comprises areas with limited healthcare facilities and high infectious disease prevalence, Cluster 2 includes areas with extensive healthcare facilities and relatively low disease prevalence, and Cluster 3 contains regions with adequate healthcare facilities yet facing a considerable disease burden. These findings underscore the importance of data-driven approaches in guiding targeted and responsive health intervention strategies tailored to the specific needs of each region in West Nusa Tenggara
Co-Authors Azizah, Efida Chandrawati, Chandrawati Ghazali, Muhammad Muhammad Gazali Siti Hariati Hastuti