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All Journal International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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LOGISTIC AND PROBIT REGRESSION MODELING TO PREDICT THE OPPORTUNITIES OF DIABETES IN PROSPECTIVE ATHLETES Ariyanto, Danang; Sofro, A'yunin; Hanifah, A’idah Nur; Prihanto, Junaidi Budi; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1391-1402

Abstract

Diabetes is among the most prevalent chronic diseases globally, posing significant health risks to individuals. The identification of individuals at risk of developing these conditions is of paramount importance, particularly in high-stress and physically demanding activities such as athletic training. To find out the chances of a prospective athlete suffering from diabetes or not, models for binary data can be used, including logistic regression and probit models. The data used is primary data from prospective athletes in East Java, including prospective athletes from the State University of Surabaya and East Java Koni Athletes. This study aimed to develop an early prediction model for diabetes in prospective athletic candidates using a bivariate logistic and probit regression approach while considering the influence of socio-demographic and anthropometric factors. To selecting the best model between logistic regression and probit regression using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value, the smaller the AIC value gets means that the model is closer to the actual value or being the best model. Logistic regression has a smaller AIC value (129,85) than probit regression, this means that the logistic model is the best model. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the use of logistic and probit regression to determine the factors which significantly influence the diabetes disease and we got that the logistic model as the best model because it has a smaller AIC value than the probit model. Based on the result of analysis and discussion, it can be concluded that there are two factors called mother’s job and finance which are influenced to the response variable, diabetes disease at significance level of 5%.
ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN INDONESIA USING A TIME SERIES-BASED CLUSTERING APPROACH Sofro, A'yunin; Riani, Rosalina Agista; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Ariyanto, Danang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0837-0848

Abstract

Indonesia has a tropical climate and has two seasons: dry and rainy. Prolonged drought can cause drought disasters, and rain can cause floods and landslides. According to information from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), natural disasters such as floods and landslides due to heavy rains have been a severe problem in Indonesia for the past five years. Different regional characteristics can affect the intensity of rain that falls in every province in Indonesia. It can be grouped to determine which provinces have similar characteristics to natural disasters due to rainfall. Later, it can provide information to the government and the public so that they are more aware of natural disasters. So, it is necessary to research and classify provinces in Indonesia for rainfall with cluster analysis. The data used is secondary rainfall data taken from the official BMKG website. Cluster analysis of rainfall in 34 provinces in Indonesia used hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods in this study. The approach that is used in this research limits our clustering of the data. Further research with a machine learning approach is recommended. For the clustering method, the agglomerative hierarchical method includes single, average, and complete linkage. The non-hierarchical method includes k-medoids and fuzzy c-means. The cluster analysis results show that the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance measurement method with the average linkage method has the most optimal cluster results with a silhouette coefficient value of 0.813.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION AND SIMULATION USING GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION-KALMAN FILTER: A COMPARISON BETWEEN KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHMS Maulana, Dimas Avian; Sofro, A'yunin; Ariyanto, Danang; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Oktaviarina, Affiati; Purnama, Mohammad Dian
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp97-106

Abstract

Stocks have high-profit potential but also have high risk. Many people have ways to forecast stock prices. The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) method forecasts stock prices. The data used in this study are closing stock price data from July 1, 2021 to August 31, 2021 taken from Yahoo! Finance. The stocks used in this research are Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), and Telkom Indonesia (TLKM). A strategy is carried out to improve prediction accuracy by utilising the Kalman Filter (KF). This research will compare the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value between GBM-KF, which was manually computed and computed using the Python library. As an example of this research, for BBRI stock, the high GBM MAPE value of 9.02% can be reduced to 3.52% with manually computed GBM-KF and 3.68% with Python library computed GBM-KF. Similarly, INDF and TLKM stocks are showing a significant reduction in MAPE values to deficient levels in some cases. The GBM-KF method employing manual computing may enhance the overall precision of stock price forecasting. Future research may enhance this study by using the GBM-KF model on alternative financial instruments, integrating supplementary market data, or evaluating its efficacy under extreme market conditions.
Enhanced diabetes and hypertension prediction using bat-optimized k-means and comparative machine learning models Sofro, A'yunin; Ariyanto, Danang; Prihanto, Junaidi Budi; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Maharani, Asri; Oktaviarina, Affi; Kurniawan, Ibnu Febry; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Al Akbar, Muhammad Mahdy
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 11, No 4 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v11i4.1816

Abstract

This research aims to develop an analytical approach in classification statistics. The proposed approach is the use of machine learning combined with optimization effects. Considering the urgency of research related to exploring the best methods to apply to sports data. This study proposes a novel framework by combining the clustering results of random forest from the k-means method with the bat algorithm optimization to enhance performance prediction in the case of athlete prediction. The proposed method aims to explore data by comparing the quality of classification results in random forest machine learning, extremely randomized trees, and support vector classification methods. We conducted a case study on primary data with 200 respondents from Surabaya State University and the East Java National Sports Committee. The accuracy found in this study indicates that the best approach based on the performance evaluation metric of the proposed approach is the random forest clustering results from the k-means method with bat algorithm optimization, which provides the best accuracy value compared to other machine learning approaches at 81.25%. This research offers a novel machine-learning–optimization framework that significantly improves athlete performance prediction by integrating k-means clustering, random forest, and bat algorithm optimization. The approach provides higher accuracy than conventional classifiers, enabling more data-driven decision-making for talent identification and sports analytics in Indonesia.
Co-Authors AFFIATI OKTAVIARINA Al Akbar, Muhammad Mahdy Asri Maharani Danang Ariyanto Hanifah, A’idah Nur Ibnu Febry Kurniawan Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Maulana, Dimas Avian Oktaviarina, Affi Prihanto, Junaidi Budi Purnama, Mohammad Dian Riani, Rosalina Agista Sofro, A'yunin