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All Journal International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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LOGISTIC AND PROBIT REGRESSION MODELING TO PREDICT THE OPPORTUNITIES OF DIABETES IN PROSPECTIVE ATHLETES Ariyanto, Danang; Sofro, A'yunin; Hanifah, A’idah Nur; Prihanto, Junaidi Budi; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1391-1402

Abstract

Diabetes is among the most prevalent chronic diseases globally, posing significant health risks to individuals. The identification of individuals at risk of developing these conditions is of paramount importance, particularly in high-stress and physically demanding activities such as athletic training. To find out the chances of a prospective athlete suffering from diabetes or not, models for binary data can be used, including logistic regression and probit models. The data used is primary data from prospective athletes in East Java, including prospective athletes from the State University of Surabaya and East Java Koni Athletes. This study aimed to develop an early prediction model for diabetes in prospective athletic candidates using a bivariate logistic and probit regression approach while considering the influence of socio-demographic and anthropometric factors. To selecting the best model between logistic regression and probit regression using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value, the smaller the AIC value gets means that the model is closer to the actual value or being the best model. Logistic regression has a smaller AIC value (129,85) than probit regression, this means that the logistic model is the best model. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the use of logistic and probit regression to determine the factors which significantly influence the diabetes disease and we got that the logistic model as the best model because it has a smaller AIC value than the probit model. Based on the result of analysis and discussion, it can be concluded that there are two factors called mother’s job and finance which are influenced to the response variable, diabetes disease at significance level of 5%.
ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN INDONESIA USING A TIME SERIES-BASED CLUSTERING APPROACH Sofro, A'yunin; Riani, Rosalina Agista; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Ariyanto, Danang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0837-0848

Abstract

Indonesia has a tropical climate and has two seasons: dry and rainy. Prolonged drought can cause drought disasters, and rain can cause floods and landslides. According to information from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), natural disasters such as floods and landslides due to heavy rains have been a severe problem in Indonesia for the past five years. Different regional characteristics can affect the intensity of rain that falls in every province in Indonesia. It can be grouped to determine which provinces have similar characteristics to natural disasters due to rainfall. Later, it can provide information to the government and the public so that they are more aware of natural disasters. So, it is necessary to research and classify provinces in Indonesia for rainfall with cluster analysis. The data used is secondary rainfall data taken from the official BMKG website. Cluster analysis of rainfall in 34 provinces in Indonesia used hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods in this study. The approach that is used in this research limits our clustering of the data. Further research with a machine learning approach is recommended. For the clustering method, the agglomerative hierarchical method includes single, average, and complete linkage. The non-hierarchical method includes k-medoids and fuzzy c-means. The cluster analysis results show that the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance measurement method with the average linkage method has the most optimal cluster results with a silhouette coefficient value of 0.813.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION AND SIMULATION USING GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION-KALMAN FILTER: A COMPARISON BETWEEN KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHMS Maulana, Dimas Avian; Sofro, A'yunin; Ariyanto, Danang; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Oktaviarina, Affiati; Purnama, Mohammad Dian
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp97-106

Abstract

Stocks have high-profit potential but also have high risk. Many people have ways to forecast stock prices. The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) method forecasts stock prices. The data used in this study are closing stock price data from July 1, 2021 to August 31, 2021 taken from Yahoo! Finance. The stocks used in this research are Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), and Telkom Indonesia (TLKM). A strategy is carried out to improve prediction accuracy by utilising the Kalman Filter (KF). This research will compare the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value between GBM-KF, which was manually computed and computed using the Python library. As an example of this research, for BBRI stock, the high GBM MAPE value of 9.02% can be reduced to 3.52% with manually computed GBM-KF and 3.68% with Python library computed GBM-KF. Similarly, INDF and TLKM stocks are showing a significant reduction in MAPE values to deficient levels in some cases. The GBM-KF method employing manual computing may enhance the overall precision of stock price forecasting. Future research may enhance this study by using the GBM-KF model on alternative financial instruments, integrating supplementary market data, or evaluating its efficacy under extreme market conditions.
Enhanced diabetes and hypertension prediction using bat-optimized k-means and comparative machine learning models Sofro, A'yunin; Ariyanto, Danang; Prihanto, Junaidi Budi; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Maharani, Asri; Oktaviarina, Affi; Kurniawan, Ibnu Febry; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Al Akbar, Muhammad Mahdy
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 11, No 4 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v11i4.1816

Abstract

This research aims to develop an analytical approach to classification statistics. The proposed approach combines machine learning with optimization. Considering the urgency of research related to exploring the best methods to apply to sports data. This study proposes a novel framework that combines the k-means clustering results with the bat algorithm to optimize performance prediction for athletes in Indonesia. The proposed method aims to explore the data by comparing the classification performance of random forests, extremely randomized trees, and support vector machines. We conducted a case study using primary data from 200 respondents at Surabaya State University and the East Java National Sports Committee. The accuracy results in this study indicate that, based on the performance evaluation metric, the best approach is random forest clustering using k-means with bat algorithm optimization, achieving 81.25% accuracy, compared with other machine learning approaches. This research contributes to the field of classification statistics by introducing a novel hybrid framework that integrates machine learning, clustering, and optimization techniques to improve predictive accuracy, particularly in sports analytics. Beyond sports science, the proposed approach can be adapted to other domains that require robust performance prediction and decision support, such as health analytics, educational assessment, and human resource selection.
SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF RAINFALL DATA USING COKRIGING AND RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS FOR HYDROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS IN SURABAYA, INDONESIA Ariyanto, Danang; Sofro, A'yunin; Puspitasari, Riskyana Dewi I; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu; Ombao, Hernando
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp1185-1198

Abstract

Urban hydrological challenges, such as flooding and water resource management, require accurate rainfall data to support sustainable development. This study investigates the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall data across 31 districts in Surabaya, Indonesia, and compares its performance with the geostatistical method Cokriging. Elevation data were incorporated as an additional variable to account for geographical variability. The dataset was divided into training (26 locations) and testing (5 locations) subsets, with testing locations treated as missing data points to simulate real-world conditions. The results show that the RNN-based interpolation method achieved progressively lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values from January (48.65) to April (13.78), indicating higher accuracy compared to the Cokriging method. These findings underscore the potential of RNN in addressing data gaps and spatial variability, offering robust solutions for hydrological applications in urban environments. This approach not only supports flood risk mitigation strategies but also contributes to optimizing drainage systems and water resource planning. Further research is recommended to incorporate additional environmental variables and extend the application to broader spatial and temporal contexts.
Co-Authors AFFIATI OKTAVIARINA Al Akbar, Muhammad Mahdy Asri Maharani Danang Ariyanto Hanifah, A’idah Nur Ibnu Febry Kurniawan Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Maulana, Dimas Avian Oktaviarina, Affi Ombao, Hernando Prihanto, Junaidi Budi Purnama, Mohammad Dian Puspitasari, Riskyana Dewi I Riani, Rosalina Agista Sofro, A'yunin