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Analisis Keyakinan Tentang Matematika Dan Pengetahuan Konten Pedagogik Matematika Calon Guru Matematika Muhyidin, Kholil; Ekawati, Rooselyna; Sofro, A'yunin
Jurnal Ilmiah Soulmath : Jurnal Edukasi Pendidikan Matematika Vol 10 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Dr. Soetomo

Abstract This study aims to determine whether there is a relationship between beliefs about mathematics and mathematics pedagogical content knowledge possessed by mathematics teachers on the ratio material and explanations of prospective teachers' mathematics pedagogic content based on the beliefs about mathematics drawn. This research used by Mixed Method. With a sample of 31 students who took micro teaching courses. from the sample, each subject who has a view on instrumentalist, platonic, and problem-solving mathematics is selected. Data were collected by presenting beliefs, mathematics pedagogical content knowledge tests, and interviews. Statistical data analysis by using rank-spearman correlation test. The results of research showed that there was no relationship between beliefs about mathematics and mathematics pedagogical content knowledge of prospective mathematics teachers. Prospective teachers mathematics who have a view of instrumentalist and problem solving mastered almost all indicators that exist in the component of mathematics pedagogical content knowledge. Meanwhile, prospective teachers mathematics who have a view of platonic have almost not mastered all the indicators that exist in the component of mathematics pedagogical content knowledge.

Proses Penalaran Kuantitatif Menggunakan Kerangka Referensi Siswa Ditinjau Dari Gender Siolimbona, Dedi Rahman; Budiarto, Mega Teguh; Sofro, A'yunin
Jurnal Ilmiah Soulmath : Jurnal Edukasi Pendidikan Matematika Vol 9 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Dr. Soetomo

Abstract The results of previous studies showed that the ratio of the differences in the level of quantitative reasoning abilities between male students and female students was quite significant. While the frame of reference refers to a series of mental actions through which individuals can regulate the processes and products of quantitative reasoning. Therefore, there are two main objectives of this study, namely to show whether or not there are differences in quantitative reasoning products using a frame of reference between male and female students, then to describe the process of quantitative reasoning using a frame of reference between male and female students. Using Sequential Mixed Methods, this study examined 58 students of class VIII junior high school. The research was conducted in two phases, namely the quantitative phase which included statistical data analysis using the Mann Withney Test to determine whether there were differences in the product of quantitative reasoning using the frame of reference for male and female students. Then the qualitative phase includes a description of the quantitative reasoning process using a frame of reference for male and female students. The results of the study stated that there were differences in the product of quantitative reasoning between male and female students. This is indicated by the results of statistical tests in the quantitative phase, while the qualitative phase found that male students were able to analyze the formulas that were determined according to the results of their own interpretation of the information provided implicitly or explicitly in the questions compared to female students. Keywords: Quantitative Reasoning, Frame of Reference, Gender Abstrak Hasil penelitian sebelumnya menunjukan rasio perbedaan tingkat kemampuan penalaran kuantitatif antara siswa laki-laki dan siswa perempuan yang cukup signifikan. Sedang kerangka referensi merujuk pada serangkaian tindakan mental yang melaluinya individu dapat mengatur proses dan produk dari penalaran kuantitatif. Oleh karenanya, ada dua tujuan utama dari penelitian ini, yaitu menunjukkan ada atau tidak-nya perbedaan produk penalaran kuantitatif menggunakan kerangka referensi antara siswa laki-laki dan perempuan, selanjutnya mendeskripsikan proses penalaran kuantitatif menggunakan kerangka referensi antara siswa laki-laki dan perempuan. Menggunakan Sequential Mixed Methods penelitian ini mengkaji 58 orang siswa kelas VIII SMP. Penelitian dilakukan dengan dua fase, yaitu fase kuantitatif meliputi analisis data statistik menggunakan uji Mann Withney Test untuk mengetahui adakah perbedaan produk penalaran kuantitatif menggunakan kerangka referensi siswa laki-laki dan perempuan. selanjutnya fase kualitatif meliputi, deskripsi proses penalaran kuantitatif menggunakan kerangka referensi siswa laki-laki dan perempuan. Hasil penelitian menyatakan ada perbedaan produk penalaran kuantitatif antara siswa laki-laki dan perempuan. Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh hasil uji statistik pada fase kuantitatif, sedangkan fase kualitatif menemukan bahwa siswa laki-laki lebih dapat menganalisis rumus/formula yang ditentukan menurut hasil interpretasinya sendiri terhadap informasi yang diberikan secara implisit maupun eksplisit dalam soal disbanding siswa perempuan. Kata Kunci: Penalaran Kuantitatif, Kerangka Referensi, Gender.

Covid-19 Data Analysis in Tarakan with Poisson Regression and Spatial Poisson Process Sofro, A'yunin; Wardani, Ika Nurwanitantya; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 7, No 4 (2023): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i4.19653

COVID-19 entered Indonesia in March 2020 and included North Kalimantan Province, Tarakan. COVID-19 cases have outspread in Tarakan. The cause of the outspread and the patterns were not known yet. One relevant approach was to use Generalized Linear Models. The two methods are Poisson Regression and Stochastic with Spatial Poisson Process. The variables used were rainfall, population density, and temperature in each village in Tarakan. The Poisson Regression analysis founds that only one factor affected temperature. Then, the results were refined with the Spatial Poisson Process, where in addition to the influencing factors also, the distribution patterns are obtained. The analysis showed that the pattern of case distribution was included in the non-homogeneous Poisson process criteria. Then the model of the case density intensity was obtained using regression. From the model, it was known that the covariate variables significantly influence rainfall and temperature. Compared with general Poisson regression analysis, the results showed that only the average temperature variables had a significant effect. Thus, a better method was used, namely the Spatial Poisson Process. It was also shown by the two models' AIC values, where the AIC value of the Spatial Poisson Process model was smaller than the Poisson Regression.

Analisis Pelaksanaan Pelatihan Penulisan Karya Tulis Ilmiah di MGMP Matematika SMP Kabupaten Lumajang Sofro, A'yunin; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Fuad, Yusuf; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Lukito, Agung; Auliya, Elok Rizqi
Aksiologiya: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8 No 2 (2024): Mei
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/aks.v8i2.13610

Wabah Covid-19 merupakan ancaman nyata bagi kesehatan global dan menjadi beban dan tantangan serius bagi semua negara. Covid-19 berdampak pada melemahnya perekonomian, tetapi dampaknya juga dirasakan dalam dunia pendidikan. Keprofresionalan seorang guru sangatlah dibutuhkan untuk menghadapi berbagai tantangan. Guru memegang peranan yang sangat penting dalam mendukung program pemerintah khususnya peningkatan kualitas pendidikan, terutama di masa pandemi saat ini. Seorang guru yang profesional juga diharapkan selalu melakukan penelitian yang dituangkan dalam suatu karya tulis ilmiah. Untuk mendukung kualitas dari karya tulis ilmiah, analisis data dalam penelitian juga sangat diperlukan. Di sisi lain, MGMP Matematika SMP Kabupaten Lumajang membutuhkan pelatihan untuk meningkatkan kinerja guru. Sehingga, menggiatkan guru untuk melakukan penulisan karya ilmiah dengan analisis statistika adalah salah satu solusi yang tepat dilakukan. Dari hasil yang didapatkan bahwa kriteria keberhasilan dari sisi output telah terpenuhi. Lebih dari 90 persen kelompok telah mencapai target kinerja yang ditetapkan. Sedangkan dari sisi proses, sekitar 80 persen lebih peserta memberikan kesan positif terhadap workshop yang telah dilakukan. Dengan adanya pelatihan tersebut juga ada peningkatan kinerja guru dalam penulisan karya ilmiah sebesar 82 persen.

POSITIVE CONFIRMED PREDICTION OF COVID-19 IN EAST JAVA USING COUNT TIME SERIES BASED DOUBLE POISSON INAR(p) PROCESS Sofro, A'yunin; Subiantoro, Framitha Septian; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp879-888

In December 2019, there was a virus outbreak caused by a virus disease with a relatively high spread in Indonesia, one of which was in East Java Province. It is proven by the number of new cases on January 15, 2021, in East Java, reaching 12818 cases. This is why researchers predict the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in East Java so that the Government can anticipate an increase in the number of COVID-19 patients. This study uses data on the addition of positive COVID-19 cases in East Java from May 16, 2020, to January 24, 2021. Because the count time series data shows overdispersion, predictions are made by modeling the COVID-19 data using the INAR( ). development model, namely Double Poisson INAR( ). Several tests were carried out with data from the Double Poisson distribution, and then the ACF and PACF plots were analyzed to find the order of INARDP. After obtaining the order, the model can be constructed and estimated using MLE. Then, the prediction of adding COVID-19 cases in East Java on January 25, 2021, obtained 949 cases with an estimated error of 13.73 percent. So, the model show that the accuracy of the forecasted value with actual value is 86.17 percent.

Prediction of Air Temperature in East Java using Spatial Extreme Value with Copula Approach Sofro, A'yunin; Habibulloh, Wildan; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 8, No 4 (2024): October
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v8i4.25436

The increase in world temperature or global warming is a form of imbalance in the average temperature on Earth. The increase in air temperature will increase the risk of disasters, which will occur more frequently in the future. Rising global temperatures are expected to cause changes that can have fatal consequences. To anticipate the dangers are predicted by predicting the future air temperature increase. One of the methods that can be used is spatial extreme value theory, which uses the Gaussian copula model approach and Student's t copula, where the choice of these two methods was based on the flexibility they offer in capturing tail dependencies due to their capacity to describe the dependence structure between many variables simultaneously. . This makes it possible to get a return level or predicted value of air temperature by considering the elements of location in it. This research discusses both approaches and uses the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) methods to estimate the parameters. In addition, since spatial elements need to be considered, the trend surface model is also used. Akaike information criterion (AIC) is used to determine the best model for predicting air temperature based on extreme n air temperature data in East Java Province from nine air temperature observation stations. The results show that the highest air temperature value is around the Banyuwangi temperature observation station located in Banyuwangi Regency in the next two-year return period. The AIC results show that the best model produced is the Gaussian copula approach with a smaller AIC value than the student's t-copula approach, which is 8.0174. This value used to compare the relative quality of different statistical models with a lower AIC value generally indicates a better-fitting model.This value with a lower AIC value generally indicates a better-fitting model.

Analisis Pelaksanaan Pelatihan Penulisan Karya Tulis Ilmiah di MGMP Matematika SMP Kabupaten Lumajang Sofro, A'yunin; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul; Fuad, Yusuf; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Lukito, Agung; Auliya, Elok Rizqi
Aksiologiya: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 8 No 2 (2024): Mei
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/aks.v8i2.13610

Wabah Covid-19 merupakan ancaman nyata bagi kesehatan global dan menjadi beban dan tantangan serius bagi semua negara. Covid-19 berdampak pada melemahnya perekonomian, tetapi dampaknya juga dirasakan dalam dunia pendidikan. Keprofresionalan seorang guru sangatlah dibutuhkan untuk menghadapi berbagai tantangan. Guru memegang peranan yang sangat penting dalam mendukung program pemerintah khususnya peningkatan kualitas pendidikan, terutama di masa pandemi saat ini. Seorang guru yang profesional juga diharapkan selalu melakukan penelitian yang dituangkan dalam suatu karya tulis ilmiah. Untuk mendukung kualitas dari karya tulis ilmiah, analisis data dalam penelitian juga sangat diperlukan. Di sisi lain, MGMP Matematika SMP Kabupaten Lumajang membutuhkan pelatihan untuk meningkatkan kinerja guru. Sehingga, menggiatkan guru untuk melakukan penulisan karya ilmiah dengan analisis statistika adalah salah satu solusi yang tepat dilakukan. Dari hasil yang didapatkan bahwa kriteria keberhasilan dari sisi output telah terpenuhi. Lebih dari 90 persen kelompok telah mencapai target kinerja yang ditetapkan. Sedangkan dari sisi proses, sekitar 80 persen lebih peserta memberikan kesan positif terhadap workshop yang telah dilakukan. Dengan adanya pelatihan tersebut juga ada peningkatan kinerja guru dalam penulisan karya ilmiah sebesar 82 persen.

Clustering Analysis of MAMA 2024 Song of the Year Nominees Based on Musical Elements and Popularity Indicators Harahap, Libelda Aldinaduma; Sofro, A'yunin
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v16i2.12860

As K-pop continues to dominate global music charts, understanding the factors behind the success of songs has become increasingly essential. This study explores how musical elements and popularity indicators reveal patterns among topperforming songs. A total of 57 songs nominated for the 2024 Song of the Year category were grouped using hierarchical cluster analysis. The genre variable was consolidated into six broader categories and converted into numerical labels. All variables are normalized using the Min-Max normalization method before clustering. The data includes musical elements such as genre, tempo, danceability, energy, and happiness, as well as popularity indicators like YouTube views and Spotify streams. The analysis employs single, complete, and average linkage methods. Among these, the average linkage method yields the best results, with an agglomerative coefficient value of 0.8167. Seven distinct clusters are identified: Cluster 1 features R&B and hip-hop styles with varied energy and rhythms; Cluster 2, the largest group, includes high-energy pop, hip-hop, and dance-pop tracks that are popular on streaming platforms; Cluster 3 contains indie and experimental tracks; Cluster 4 emphasizes high-energy stage performances; Cluster 5 is an outlier with experimental traits; Cluster 6 highlights R&B and funk with global appeal; and Cluster 7 includes emotional OSTs and ballads with slower tempos. By combining musical elements and popularity indicators, this research uncovers patterns of success in K-pop songs. These findings offer actionable insights for artists, producers, and marketers, providing a datadriven reference for creating music that resonates with modern audience preferences.

COMPARISON OF ARIMA AND GARMA'S PERFORMANCE ON DATA ON POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES IN INDONESIA Sofro, A'yunin; Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 3 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

The development of methods in statistics, one of which is used for prediction, is overgrowing. So it requires further analysis related to the goodness of the method. One of the comparisons made to the goodness of this model can be seen by applying it to actual cases around us. The real case still being faced by people worldwide, including in Indonesia, is Covid-19. Therefore, research comparing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Gegenbauer autoregressive moving average (GARMA) method in positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia is essential. Based on the results of this research analysis, it was found that the best model with the Aikake's Information Criterion measure of goodness that was used to predict positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia was the Gegenbauer autoregressive moving average (GARMA) model.

LOGISTIC AND PROBIT REGRESSION MODELING TO PREDICT THE OPPORTUNITIES OF DIABETES IN PROSPECTIVE ATHLETES Ariyanto, Danang; Sofro, A'yunin; Hanifah, A’idah Nur; Prihanto, Junaidi Budi; Maulana, Dimas Avian; Romadhonia, Riska Wahyu
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1391-1402

Diabetes is among the most prevalent chronic diseases globally, posing significant health risks to individuals. The identification of individuals at risk of developing these conditions is of paramount importance, particularly in high-stress and physically demanding activities such as athletic training. To find out the chances of a prospective athlete suffering from diabetes or not, models for binary data can be used, including logistic regression and probit models. The data used is primary data from prospective athletes in East Java, including prospective athletes from the State University of Surabaya and East Java Koni Athletes. This study aimed to develop an early prediction model for diabetes in prospective athletic candidates using a bivariate logistic and probit regression approach while considering the influence of socio-demographic and anthropometric factors. To selecting the best model between logistic regression and probit regression using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value, the smaller the AIC value gets means that the model is closer to the actual value or being the best model. Logistic regression has a smaller AIC value (129,85) than probit regression, this means that the logistic model is the best model. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the use of logistic and probit regression to determine the factors which significantly influence the diabetes disease and we got that the logistic model as the best model because it has a smaller AIC value than the probit model. Based on the result of analysis and discussion, it can be concluded that there are two factors called mother’s job and finance which are influenced to the response variable, diabetes disease at significance level of 5%.

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