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All Journal Journal of Shariah Economics
Nurhayani .
Universitas Jambi
Religion Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences Other

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Peran Investasi, Belanja Modal Dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Jambi Andika Zia Ulhak; Siti Hodijah; Candra Mustika; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v4i1.1253

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of investment, capital expenditure, and locally generated revenue (PAD) on economic growth in Jambi Province during the period of 2019–2024. Economic growth is measured through the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at constant prices (ADHK) of 2010. The independent variables in this study include investment (domestic and foreign investment), government capital expenditure, and locally generated revenue. This research employs a quantitative approach using panel data analysis combining time series and cross-sectional data from all districts and cities in Jambi Province. The data were obtained from official institutions such as the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK), and the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression methods, involving three model tests: the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), along with the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests to determine the most appropriate model. The results indicate that investment, capital expenditure, and PAD each have a positive effect on economic growth in Jambi Province, both partially and simultaneously. Increased investment contributes to production capacity expansion and job creation; government capital expenditure supports the provision of public infrastructure and economic efficiency; while PAD enhances the fiscal capacity of local governments to finance sustainable development. Simultaneously, these three variables significantly influence GRDP growth, highlighting the synergy between fiscal policy and investment activities in strengthening Jambi’s economic structure. The findings emphasize the importance of optimizing public and private investment, improving the effectiveness of capital expenditure, and enhancing local fiscal independence to support inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Prediksi Kemiskinan Ekstrem di Provinsi Jambi Berbasis Data Mikro SUSENAS: Perbandingan Regresi Logistik, Random Forest, dan XGBoost serta Analisis Determinan Ari Hidayat; Zulgani .; Ridwansyah .; Siti Hodijah; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v4i1.1261

Abstract

Extreme poverty is the most severe form of poverty, characterized by a household's inability to meet basic needs and tends to persist despite ongoing social program interventions. In Jambi Province, poverty trends are fluctuating and influenced by macroeconomic dynamics and the agricultural sector; while extreme poverty indicators show an aggregate decline, inequality remains between districts/cities. This study aims to: (1) analyze socioeconomic factors influencing the extreme poverty status of households in Jambi Province, (2) compare the performance of prediction models using econometric approaches (logistic regression) and machine learning (Random Forest and XGBoost), and (3) examine differences in the determinants of extreme poverty between agricultural and non-agricultural households. The data used are SUSENAS microdata for the 2020–2024 period using a pooling approach (cross-section and time series) for all districts/cities in Jambi Province. Extreme poverty status is defined based on the international threshold of USD 2.15 PPP or national adjustment (TNP2K) in the relevant year. Modeling was performed by dividing the training data into 80% and 20% test data, conducting feature selection, model training, and hyperparameter tuning, as well as evaluation based on the confusion matrix and AUC–ROC. In addition to performance evaluation, this study emphasized sectoral comparative analysis by training the model separately on agricultural and non-agricultural subsamples to identify dominant determinants that are both universal and sector-specific.
Co-Authors Abd Hakim Aflaha Andika Zia Ulhak Angger Halim Ismail Ari Hidayat Cadra Mustika Candra Mustika Dodi Firman Syah Erni Achmad Etik Umiyati Faisal Hamid Fauzan Aldilah Putra Hariyadi . Haryadi . Heriberta . Lisa Utari Rachmad . Ridwansyah . Rina Yuli Rahmawati Rosmeli . Siti Hodijah Suhadi . Veranika Nabila Yoranda Seftiani Yulmardi . Zainul Bahri Zamzami . Zulfanetti . Zulgani .