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INDONESIA
Journal of Information Systems and Informatics
Published by Asosiasi Doktor Sistem Informasi Indonesia
ISSN : 26565935     EISSN : 26564882     DOI : 10.63158/journalisi
Core Subject : Science,
Computer Science & IT
Journal-ISI is a scientific article journal that is the result of ideas, great and original thoughts about the latest research and technological developments covering the fields of information systems, information technology, informatics engineering, and computer science, and industrial engineering which is summarized in one publisher. Journal-ISI became one of the means for researchers to publish their great works published two times in one year, namely in March and September with e-ISSN: 2656-4882 and p-ISSN: 2656-5935.
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Articles 881 Documents
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Residual-Based Hybrid ARIMA–Prophet for Medium Rice Price Forecasting in Kudus City Aulia Nurhaliza; Supriyono; Diana Laily Fithri
Journal of Information System and Informatics Vol 8 No 4 (2026): August
Publisher : Asosiasi Doktor Sistem Informasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63158/journalisi.v8i4.1874

Abstract

Rice prices as a primary food commodity in Indonesia often fluctuate, affecting food-price stability and public welfare. This study analyzes and forecasts Medium I and Medium II rice prices in Kudus City using ARIMA, Prophet, Hybrid ARIMA–Prophet, Random Forest, and benchmark models. Daily PIHPS price data from 2021–2025 were divided chronologically into 781 training observations from 2021–2023 and 523 testing observations from 2024–2025. Model performance was evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, R², and directional metrics. Hybrid ARIMA–Prophet achieved MAE of Rp369.68 and MAPE of 2.62% for Medium I, and MAE of Rp467.31 and MAPE of 3.38% for Medium II. However, simpler benchmark models achieved lower price-level errors than the hybrid model. Random Forest showed higher directional Accuracy than Hybrid ARIMA–Prophet, but its low Precision and F1-Score indicate that Accuracy should be interpreted cautiously. The directional analysis also showed a highly imbalanced distribution, with unchanged movements accounting for approximately 94% of test observations. The Diebold–Mariano test, applied only to the regression forecast errors of Hybrid ARIMA–Prophet and Random Forest, showed significant differences for both Medium I and Medium II (p < 0.001). Overall, the findings indicate that more complex models do not necessarily outperform simpler benchmarks for the studied rice-price series.

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