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Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Published by Universitas Negeri Jakarta
ISSN : -     EISSN : 26208369     DOI : https://doi.org/10.21009/JSA.041
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education, Agriculture, Social,
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences Other
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya JSA is dedicated to all statisticians who wants to publishing their articles about statistics and its application. The coverage of JSA includes every subject that using or related to statistics.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 169 Documents
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Analisis Peluang Naiknya Kasus COVID-19 Provinsi di Pulau Jawa dengan Pendekatan Rantai Markov Afdelia Novianti; Nanda Lailatul Humairoh; Rahmi Novika Harahap; Sheilta Alphenia; Achmad Fauzan
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.05211

Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan virus yang menyerang sistem pernapasan dengan penularan yang sangat cepat yang sudah memasuki Indonesia sejak Maret 2020. Daerah dengan jumlah kasus positif terbanyak di Indonesia adalah Pulau Jawa, di mana Pulau Jawa sendiri sekaligus merupakan pulau dengan penduduk terbanyak. Sehingga pemerintah perlu memfokuskan penanganan COVID-19 untuk menekan kasus positif pada daerah yang memiliki peluang terbesar untuk naiknya kasus positif. Berangkat dari hal tersebut dilakukan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui gambaran umum kasus positif COVID-19 di Pulau Jawa dan mengetahui Provinsi yang memiliki peluang naik kasus COVID-19 tertinggi menggunakan analisis Rantai Markov. Rantai Markov merupakan metode yang dapat memperkirakan nilai probabilitas periode yang akan datang menggunakan nilai probabilitas periode saat ini berdasarkan sifat-sifat periode lalu. Didapatkan nilai peluang naik stasioner kasus COVID-19 pada Provinsi Jawa Barat dan Jawa Tengah sebesar 61,54% (Januari 2023), Provinsi Banten sebesar 65,75% (September 2022), DIY 59,82% (Mei 2022), Jakarta 46% (Agustus 2022), dan Jawa Timur sebesar 48,81% (April 2023). Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa peluang naik kasus COVID-19 tertinggi yaitu pada Provinsi Jawa Barat dan Jawa Tengah yang akan stasioner pada bulan Januari 2022, untuk itu pemerintah diharapkan perlu memfokuskan perhatian kepada ketiga provinsi tersebut. Selain itu, masyarakat sekitar juga harus menjaga protokol kesehatan sebagai salah satu upaya untuk menekan peluang kasus positif COVID-19.
Analisis Triple Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Kredit yang Diberikan Bank Umum Konvensional dan Syariah Astri Afrilia
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.05212

Abstract

Kredit yang diberikan bank merupakan pos keuangan penting yang perlu diprediksikan jumlahnya. Hal ini dikarenakan pendapatan utama sebagian besar bank di Indonesia masih bersumber dari kredit. Salah satu teknik analisis yang dapat digunakan adalah metode triple exponential smoothing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh hasil ramalan (prediksi) kredit yang diberikan pada periode mendatang bagi Bank Umum Konvensional dan Syariah. Dari hasil pengolahan data diperoleh bahwa nilai alpha sebesar 0,3 memberikan hasil ramalan sebesar Rp 8.195.603 miliar dengan akurasi tertinggi atau error terkecil berdasarkan nilai MAD dan MAPE yakni sebesar Rp 59.199 Miliar dan 0.78%. Sehingga, dapat dikatakan bahwa metode Triple Exponential Smoothing merupakan metode yang efektif dan efisien untuk meramalkan jumlah KYD Bank Umum Konvensional dan Syariah.
Peramalan Indeks Saham LQ45 pada Masa Pandemi COVID-19 Menggunakan Analisis Intervensi Sherina Arthariani Zukrianto; Widyanti Rahayu; Dania Siregar
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.05213

Abstract

Analisis intervensi merupakan metode pemodelan deret waktu yang dipengaruhi oleh suatu peristiwa yang menyebabkan data deret waktu mengalami fluktuatif. Metode analisis intervensi memiliki tujuan untuk mengukur besar dan lamanya efek dari suatu intervensi pada data deret waktu. Terdapat dua jenis variabel analisis intervensi, yaitu fungsi step dan fungsi pulse. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan model intervensi fungsi step pada indeks saham LQ45 dengan waktu intervensi yang diketahui. Deret waktu LQ45 dipengaruhi oleh suatu intervensi, yaitu pandemi COVID-19. Prosedur dalam melakukan metode analisis intervensi diawali dengan mengelompokkan data menjadi dua kelompok, yaitu data sebelum intervensi dan data saat intervensi sampai data terakhir. Data sebelum intervensi digunakan untuk pemodelan ARIMA. Model ARIMA yang didapatkan dari data sebelum terjadinya intervensi digunakan sebagai informasi untuk melakukan identifikasi orde intervensi. Selanjutnya dilakukan estimasi parameter dan pemeriksaan uji asumsi white noise serta uji asumsi berdistribusi normal. Model intervensi yang telah memenuhi kedua asumsi tersebut dapat digunakan untuk peramalan. Peramalan dari indeks saham LQ45 menghasilkan nilai indeks saham LQ45 yang cenderung konstan dan berkisar pada level indeks saham sebesar 883 – 884. Hasil peramalan indeks saham LQ45 sudah sangat baik dengan nilai galat sebesar 7%.
Front Matter JSA Volume 5 Issue 2, December 2021 Journal Editor JSA
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.05200

Abstract

Back Matter JSA Volume 5 Issue 2, December 2021 Journal Editor JSA
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.05214

Abstract

Penggunaan Systematic Point Sample sebagai Area Master Frame dalam Mengestimasi Luas Panen Padi Hazanul Zikra; Widyo Pura Buana
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.06105

Abstract

Food data plays an important role in planning for national economic recovery. Therefore, Statistic Indonesia (BPS) developed the Area Frame Survey (AFS) in estimating paddy harvested area. AFS is an method for collecting harvested area data which was previously carried out using eye estimate. Eventhough objective sampling has been applied with a two-stage non-stratified point sampling design (point clustered by square segment), the use of a square segment 300 meters × 300 meters has the potential to generate bias due to the potential for observation points to fall outside the target population (paddy field). This study aims to analyze an alternative AFS using the EUROSTAT recommended design, namely two-phase unclustered point sampling (systematic point sampling frame). The method used is a sampling simulation using rice field population map of East Denpasar in February 2019. The simulation results show that the use of point sample frame provides a better level of accuracy and efficiency than segment sample frame.
Prediksi Pergerakan Saham Menggunakan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Pembentukan Portofolio Optimal dengan Pendekatan Model Markowitz Megawati Megawati; Resmawan Resmawan; Boby Rantow Payu; Amanda Adityaningrum
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.06108

Abstract

Stock movements that follow a stochastic process move randomly at certain times, have led stock prices challenging to predict. For this reason, the monte carlo simulation method is used to get the possibilities of stock prices in the future. This case study focused on the shares listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index 70 in 2018, by simulating 10 times the daily closing price data, thus, the possible stock prices in 2019 were obtained. Portfolio optimization was then carried out using the markowitz model approach from the predicted data. Based on the prediction data, there are 20 stock have a positive expected return. The stocks that has the largest weight is ICBP.JK (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk) stocks, with 0.1396, while the stocks with the smallest weight is INAF.JK (Indofarma (Persero) Tbk) at 0.0053. Histirical simulations calculate the Value a Risk of 20 stocks that provide optimal returns, if investors invest Rp. 100,000,000.00 the maximum risk or loss that will be obtained is Rp. 2,910,410.00 for 1 year.
Analisis Eksploitasi Pekerja Anak dari Sisi Pendidikan di Pulau Jawa dengan Regresi Logistik Biner Multilevel Liza Kurnia Sari; Krismanti Tri Wahyuni
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.06106

Abstract

Education gives children the opportunity to have a better life in the future, but unfavorable economic conditions forced children to work and caused some children not to go to school. Child laborers are vulnerable to exploitation because they are considered weak and have no bargaining position in the work world. This study aims to analyze the variables that affect the exploitation of child labor in terms of education. Child laborers are said to be exploited in terms of education if they have never attended school or are no longer in school. The results of the Susenas 2019 show that exploitation is more common in boys, being older, working in the formal sector, working longer hours, living in a rural area, having a smaller household size, having a male, married, not working, low education, and older age household head. The random effect test shows that the variation in the exploitation of child labor in terms of education is significant between groups so that the 3-level model is better than the 1-level binary logistic regression model. The exploitation of child labor in terms of education at the individual level is influenced by age, sector of work, and working hours of children; at the household level it is influenced by the gender and education of household head, classification of residence, level of welfare; and at the regional level it is affected by regency/municipality poverty.
Analisis Data Kecepatan Angin di Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Distribusi Weibull Atika Ratna Dewi; Sri Handini
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.06112

Abstract

Wind is one of the renewable energy products that is environmentally friendly and has a great opportunity as a source of meeting the energy needs of the world's population. In the use of wind as renewable energy, research must be carried out first to determine wind conditions in an area and the method that can be used is the Weibull distribution. In this journal, what will be discussed is the analysis of wind speed data on the island of Java using the Weibull distribution. From the results of the analysis, the wind speed results by province are as follows, Banten Province 2 m/s with a probability of 65%, DKI Jakarta 3 m/s with a probability of 30%, West Java 3 m/s with a probability of 90%, Central Java 8 m/s s with a probability of 11%, East Java 7 m/s with a probability of 7%, DI Yogyakarta is less than 1 m/s with a probability of 98%. The results of the plot of the probability solid function of the Weibull distribution show that the shape of the provincial velocity data curve that corresponds to the Weibull distribution curve is only the curve of East Java Province with a value of 1 < k < 2, namely k = 1.74.
Pemodelan Spasial pada Data Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di Pulau Jawa Sebelum dan Ketika Pandemi Yekti Widyaningsih; Melia Rizki Fitrianingrum
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 6 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.06102

Abstract

One of the regional economic indicators is GRDP, GRDP or gross regional domestic product explains the ability of the region to manage and utilize the resources in the area. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic entered Indonesia and caused the economy to stagnate. This has a negative effect on national economic activities and reduces the value of GRDP. To overcome these problems, we will look for factors that are thought to influence the value of GRDP. In the process there are obstacles, namely incomplete data (there are missing values). To overcome the missing values, imputation will be carried out using the k-nearest neighbor imputation method. The spatial effect test was conducted to determine whether there was a spatial effect on the data. Based on the test, it is known that there is spatial heterogeneity, so that the modeling of the GRDP value is carried out using the geographically weighted regression model. The GWR method can handle spatial non-stationary, so that it can be seen what variables significantly affect the value of GRDP in each district/city on the island of Java. Before the pandemic, the variables that affected the value of GRDP in Java were local income, average informal wages, realization of domestic investment, and the number of unemployed. During the pandemic, the variables that affect the value of GRDP in Java are local revenue, the realization of foreign investment, and the number of unemployed.

Page 7 of 17 | Total Record : 169

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