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Nafik Hadi Ryandono
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Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management
Published by Universitas Airlangga
ISSN : -     EISSN : 27225062     DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/ajim.v1i2.19171
Core Subject : Economy, Social,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management (AJIM) aims to link the research and practice of innovation management. AJIM adopt a multidisciplinary approach to addressing the many challenges of managing innovation. AJIM encourages the submission of papers addressing the multidisciplinary nature of the innovation process combining principles and concepts originating from a myriad of scientific areas, from social sciences to technology research and development. AJIM encompasses all phases of the process of technological innovation from conceptualization of a new technology-based product/service process through commercialization.
Arjuna Subject : Bisnis, Menejemen, dan Akutansi (semua kategori) - Menejemen Teknologi dan Inovasi
Articles 182 Documents
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Probabilistic Markov Chain Modeling for Predicting User Behavior Patterns in Digital Systems Using Data Mining Hevlie Winda Nazry; Budi Antoro; Fatma Sari Hutagalung
Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/ajim.v7i1.87129

Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of transforming sequential clickstream data into accurate yet interpretable behavioral predictions for operational decision-making in digital systems. While complex machine learning models often achieve high accuracy, their limited transparency hinders practical adoption. Therefore, this research aims to develop and evaluate a probabilistic Markov-based framework for predicting users’ next actions while maintaining interpretability. A quantitative data mining approach is applied to e-commerce clickstream data collected in January 2026. User interactions are sessionized and mapped into eight discrete behavioral states. The study compares a frequency-based baseline with first-order, second-order, and variable-order Markov models using back-off and Laplace/Dirichlet smoothing. Model evaluation employs a time-based train–test split with Accuracy@1, Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR), and log-loss as performance metrics. Results indicate that the variable-order Markov model achieves the best performance, improving Accuracy@1 from 0.231 to 0.331, increasing MRR from 0.318 to 0.437, and reducing log-loss from 1.74 to 1.39. The findings demonstrate that Markov-based models offer an effective balance between predictive accuracy and interpretability, enabling the identification of dominant transitions, drop-off points, and conversion bottlenecks. Future research may extend this framework with time-aware or hidden-state models to capture latent user intent, while managerial implications include data-driven system optimization, recommendation enhancement, and user retention strategies.
Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Minat dalam Pembelian Makanan: Promosi Media Sosial dan Label Halal sebagai Variabel Independen Alfajri, Dian Rizky; Pratama, Irfan Aji; Said, Syihabudin; Atiah, Isti Nuzulul
Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Airlangga Journal of Innovation Management
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/ajim.v7i1.87284

Abstract

Driven by the fierce rivalry within the digital-age culinary MSME sector, this research addresses the conflicting empirical evidence surrounding how digital marketing, halal certification, and e-WOM shape purchasing interest. The research gap lies in the divergent results of prior studies and the limited empirical models integrating social media promotion, halal labelling, and e-WOM within a unified analytical framework in a religiosity-based local market context. This study aims to examine the effects of social media promotion, halal labelling, and e-WOM on consumer purchasing intention in culinary SMEs. A quantitative approach with a cross-sectional survey design was employed. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using multiple linear regression to test both partial and simultaneous effects. Statistical evaluations demonstrate that while online promotion and halal tags notably drive purchasing decisions, peer-to-peer digital reviews (e-WOM) fail to show a meaningful partial impact. Simultaneously, the three variables significantly affect purchasing intention. The novelty of this study lies in developing an integrative model that combines digital communication dimensions and religious value–based trust attributes within a single empirical framework at the SME level. Theoretically, the study enriches digital and halal marketing literature, while managerially, it highlights the importance of optimizing promotional content and ensuring halal certification. Future research is recommended to adopt longitudinal designs and incorporate mediating variables such as trust and perceived risk to further refine the analytical model.

Page 19 of 19 | Total Record : 182

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