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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 729 Documents
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Analisis Sektor Agroindustri di Indonesia dengan Metode InputOutput dan Ekonometrika I Dewa Gede Merta Yasa; Anugerah Karta Monika
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (316.224 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.885

Abstract

Indikasi deindustrialisasi dini di Indonesia ditandai dengan kontribusi sektor industri pengolahan terhadap PDB yang mengalami penurunan dari tahun ke tahun sebelum Indonesia mengalami industrialisasi secara penuh. Salah satu solusi yang dapat dilakukan untuk mengatasi hal tersebut yaitu dengan mengembangkan sektor agroindustri secara optimal. Namun, pengembangan sektor agroindustri di Indonesia masih mengalami banyak kendala. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi struktur output, struktur input, angka pengganda, dan subsektor unggulan dalam agroindustri serta faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi output subsektor unggulan agroindustri. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu analisis tabel input-output agroindustri Indonesia tahun 2018 dan analisis regresi data panel dengan individu subsektor unggulan agroindustri dalam 3 digit KBLI 2015 dan rentang waktu 2010-2018. Hasil analisis input-output menunjukkan bahwa (i) struktur output sektor agroindustri lebih banyak digunakan sebagai konsumsi akhir, (ii) struktur input sektor agroindustri didominasi oleh input antara, (iii) nilai pengganda output masing-masing subsektor agroindustri cukup tinggi, dan (iv) industri makanan dan minuman; industri tekstil dan pakaian jadi; dan industri kimia, farmasi, dan obat tradisional menjadi subsektor unggulan agroindustri di Indonesia. Selanjutnya, berdasarkan analisis regresi data panel, diperoleh bahwa variabel tenaga kerja, penanaman modal (PMA dan PMDN), modal tetap, bahan bakar, dan penggunaan listrik berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap output subsektor unggulan agroindustri.
Pemetaan Potensi Lahan Jagung Menggunakan Citra Satelit Dan Random Forest Pada Cloud computing Google Earth Engine Dwi Wahyu Triscowati; Widyo Pura Buana; Arif Handoyo Marsuhandi
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (515.301 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.889

Abstract

The availability of information on the potential of corn fields that is quickly updated is important to support economic recovery after covid 19. Maize mapping is a challenge in agriculture because the corn planting area does not have special characteristics such as rice fields, corn does not have a standard area map, and planting can be done in rice fields and dry forest lands. Another problem is the need for high computational resources if the mapping of maize is done directly or manually identified. In this study, mapping the potential of maize in East Java in selected districts automatically using machine learning on cloud computing google earth engine. With the use of GEE cloud computing, maize mapping can be carried out in large areas without being constrained by computer capabilities. This study uses a pixel-based Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm with input data from the Landsat-8, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites. Reference data to train the classification model using maize ASF results. The best accuracy of Machine learning results comes from the combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 with an average accuracy of 0.79. The classification model was then applied to 10 districts where the best result was Banyuwangi Regency with an accuracy of 0.89. Judging from the potential area of ​​corn in the Banyuwangi area, the area ranges from 22,256.82 – 58,992.3 Ha based on pixels that are predicted to be corn at least 3 times/month. From the results of this study, it is evident that the use of cloud computing can perform calculations in 10 districts quickly, both in terms of model development and predictions. In addition, because it uses cloud computing, the use of satellite imagery can be utilized as soon as possible after the satellite image is published/released so that predictions of the potential of corn can be quickly and accurately generated. This study also highlights the shortcomings that occur, namely in terms of the number of samples for training data and the limitations of the algorithm used so that in the future it can be developed even better.
Analisis Regresi Spasial pada Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2020 Wenny Srimeinda Tarigan
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (286.169 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.896

Abstract

Human Development Index (HDI) in an area is influenced by the HDI in adjacent areas. Factors that affect HDI can be analyzed through classical linear regression, but if it have taken into account the location, the spatial regression approach is a more suitable analytical method to use. The purpose of this research is to perform a spatial regression analysis on the HDI modeling in North Sumatera Province in 2020. This research gives the result that the spatial regression model used is the SAR model. A positive value of ρ indicates that an increase of the HDI in the area surrounding a district/city will increase the HDI in that district/city. The direct effect obtained is -0.5069455 while the indirect effect is -0.313711. The percentage of poor people has a significant negative effect, which means that an increase of the percentage of poor people will cause a decrease of the HDI in North Sumatera province in 2020. Therefore, the government is advised to take appropriate policies from an economic perspective, especially in reducing poverty so that it can increase the HDI in North Sumatera Province.
Analisis Dampak dan Siklus Pertumbuhan Lapang Usaha: Kajian Lapang Usaha pada Masa Pandemi COVID-19 Anisa Muna Majidah; Dede Yoga Paramartha
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (462.633 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.897

Abstract

Pandemi COVID-19 membawa dampak yang buruk bagi perekonomian dunia khususnya Indonesia dengan banyaknya sektor yang terdampak. Resesi yang dialami Indonesia hingga triwulan I/2021 membuat perlu adanya kajian pemulihan ekonomi yang lebih luas, salah satunya dengan melihat dari sisi sektoral. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan input-output untuk melihat dampak dari masing-masing sektor, yang dikombinasikan dengan analisis siklus bisnis untuk memperoleh pengelompokan sektor berdasarkan siklus bisnisnya yang bermanfaat untuk mengetahui potensi dan titik balik pemulihan sehingga dapat dilakukan kebijakan yang tepat. Analisis ini dilengkapi dengan melihat dari sisi tenaga kerja sebagai investasi dalam pemulihan perekonomian dengan menganalisis elastisitas tenaga kerja pada masing-masing sektor sehingga upaya pemulihan lebih menyeluruh. Hasil yang diperoleh yaitu sektor manufaktur masih merupakan sektor yang dapat mendorong stimulus tenaga kerja. Selain itu, ditemukan bahwa sektor konstruksi serta sektor informasi dan komunikasi menjadi potensi pemulihan di masa pandemi dengan keunggulannya namun memiliki siklus bisnis dan elastisitas tenaga kerja yang berbeda.
Penerapan Model Regresi Data Panel: Determinan PDRB Sektor Unggulan di Provinsi Riau Tahun 2015-2019 Ali Imran Mansyur; Agung Priyo Utomo
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (542.207 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.899

Abstract

The economic components consist of several sectors, each sector contributes differently. Lot of sectors made it necessary to do analysis to overview the leading economic sectors whose potential can be increased to improve the economy of Riau Province. This study aims to find out the leading sector in Riau Province and provide the overview and variables that affect the regional income of the leading sector in Riau Province in 2015-2019. With overlay analysis, which is a combination of Location Quotient Analysis and Capital Ratio Analysis, the leading sectors in Riau Province are agricultural and manufacturing sectors. By using Panel data regression with fixed effect model, the result shows that agricultural labor force, agricultural sector inflation, and agricultural land area have a significant effect, while the road length has no significant effect on the GDP of agricultural sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing labor force, manufacturing sector inflation and the number of establishment have a significant effect, while the road length has no significant effect on the GDP of manufacturing sector in Riau Province in 2015-2019.
Analisis Dampak Keterkaitan dan Pengganda sebagai Identifikasi Lever Sector (Pendekatan Tabel Input-Output 2020 Estimasi) Yoga Dwi Nugroho
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (303.608 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.901

Abstract

Pembangunan ekonomi berbasis sektor harus dilakukan dengan menggunakan indikator ekonomi yang komprehensif, tidak hanya melihat struktur ekonomi saja tetapi mampu mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis hubungan antar kegiatan ekonomi (inter-industry relationship). Salah satu indikator yang tepat adalah melalui analisis Tabel Input-Output. Tabel I-O semakin banyak digunakan khususnya untuk keperluaan analisis dan perencanaan, tidak terkecuali oleh pemerintah atau decision maker dalam perencanaan pembangunan ekonomi suatu wilayah berbasis sektor serta dapat menganalisis berbagai fenomena ekonomi yang multisektor. Penelitian ini menggunakan Tabel I-O Tahun 2020 yang diestimasi dari tabel I-O tahun 2016. Dalam analisis komprehensif ini akan dihitung Forwad dan Backward Linkage Index sehingga dapat diidentifikasi sektor yang masuk dalam sektor pengungkit. Selain itu, dilakukan analisis pengganda baik, output, income, labor dan value added multiplier untuk melihat besaran pengganda yang ditimbulkan akibat perubahan permintaan akhir. Hasil penelitian sektor yang masuk sebagai sektor pengungkit atau Lever sector adalah sektor industri pengolahan (sektor 3) yang merupakan sektor dengan struktur output, nilai tambah dan input yang besar, serta memiliki multiplier yang tinggi untuk empat jenis multiplier dan analisis keterkaitan Forwad dan Backward Linkage Index yang tinggi nilainya.
Determinan Pergeseran Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian ke Sektor Non-Pertanian Studi Kasus di Indonesia Nurul Raiyan; Novia Dwi Kumala Putri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (319.927 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.904

Abstract

The agricultural sector has an important role in the national economy in Indonesia, especially in accommodating the labor. The contribution of the agricultural sector to economic growth has decreased in the last few years, especially from 2011 to 2019. On the other hand, it still should accommodate more workers than it should be. It shows that there is inequality in Indonesia’s economic structure. This research used the Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) method to estimate whether or not the simultaneous relationship between economic growth and the shifting labor from the agricultural sector to nonagricultural sectors. The result shows that there is a simultaneous relationship between economic growth and labor shifting. On the other hand, economic growth and domestic investment in the agricultural sector significantly has negative effects towards the percentage of labor who work in the agricultural sectors. Furthermore, the HDI significantly has a positive effect on economic growth.
Analisis Pengaruh Harga Emas, Harga Minyak Dunia, Dan Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Sektoral BEI Sebelum Dan Sesudah Merebaknya Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan VECM Asrif'ah Asrif'ah; Wahyudin Wahyudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (290.953 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.905

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga emas, harga minyak dunia, dan nilai kurs rupiah terhadap harga saham sektoral BEI pada saat sebelum dan sesudah merebaknya pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia. Data penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data mingguan harga emas, harga minyak Brent, dan kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS, serta variabel dummy periode sebelum dan sesudah pandemi Covid 19 di Indonesia sebagai variabel eksogen. Analisis dilakukan dengan menerapkan metode analisis Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang harga emas berpengaruh signifikan bagi saham sektor industri dasar dan kimia, sektor aneka industri, sektor properti, dan sektor keuangan, variabel harga minyak dunia berpengaruh signifikan bagi saham sektor pertanian, sektor industri dasar dan kimia, dan sektor aneka industri, dan variabel kurs rupiah berpengaruh signifikan bagi saham sektor aneka industri, sektor infrastruktur, dan sektor keuangan. Sedangkan, dalam jangka pendek, harga emas berpengaruh signifikan bagi seluruh harga saham sektoral, kecuali sektor pertanian, variabel harga minyak dunia berpengaruh signifikan bagi saham sektor pertanian, sektor aneka industri, dan sektor keuangan, variabel kurs rupiah hanya berpengaruh bagi harga saham sektor pertanian, dan adanya pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia membuat seluruh harga saham sektoral BEI menjadi lebih rendah.
Pengelompokan dan Peramalan Deret Waktu pada Produksi Bawang Merah Tingkat Provinsi di Indonesia Rifqi Aulya Rahman; Farit Mochamad Afendi; Widhiyanti Nugraheni; Kusman Sadik; Akbar Rizki
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (697.411 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.910

Abstract

Shallots are strategic vegetable commodity state that can affect the national economy. Shallots production increases every year that in line with domestic household consumption. Every province in Indonesia has a different level of shallot production, both in terms of cycles and harvest amount. Clustering provinces with similar production patterns can help government policies. This research aims to determine cluster time series and to evaluate the shallot production forecast in several provinces in Indonesia. There are three of optimal clusters which have a characteristic pattern in time series and their production. Time series at provincial level and cluster level, then it is modelled based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA). The evaluation of cluster level is compared to the provincial level and is concluded that clustering makes forecasting efficiently. This is based on average of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) that is smaller that provincial level.
Analisis Input-Output COVID-19: Mengukur Dampak Ekonomi Kebijakan Penanganan Pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia I Gede Putu Dharma Yusa
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (308.982 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.911

Abstract

Policies for handling the COVID-19 pandemic that limit mobility had an impact on economic performance. Restrictions on a certain sector will have an impact to the others. Therefore, to measure it, it is necessary to have a tool that describes the linkages between economic sectors comprehensively. This study used restriction and extraction Input-Output Table approach to answer these problems, by measuring changes in output and income that occur according to restriction scenarios. There are three scenarios designed: limiting the working age of Work From Office (WFO), setting the WFO and Work From Home (WFH) system, and limiting working hours. The results, limiting the working age of WFO as well as setting the WFO and WFH systems are still able to increase the output and income of workers up to 11,16 percent and 8,85 percent respectively. Meanwhile, in the scenario of limiting working hours, there is a decrease in the output and income of workers by 23,87 percent and 38,78 percent respectively.

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