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Muh. Isbar Pratama
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Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Published by Universitas Negeri Makassar
ISSN : 24769487     EISSN : 27210863     DOI : https://doi.org/10.35580/jmathcos
Core Subject : Education,
Mathematics
Fokus yang didasarkan tidak hanya untuk penelitian dan juga teori-teori pengetahuan yang tidak menerbitkan plagiarism. Ruang lingkup jurnal ini adalah teori matematika, matematika terapan, program perhitungan, perhitungan matematika, statistik, dan statistik matematika.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika Terapan
Articles 210 Documents
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Modeling the Percentage of Poor Population in Sulawesi Island Using Kernel Estimation in Priestley-Chao Semiparametric Regression Ampa, Andi Tenri; Makkulau, Andi Tenri Pannangngareng; Ome, Lilis La; Ihwal, Muhammad; Yahya, Irma; Makkulau, Makkulau
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.8761

Abstract

This study aims to model the data on the Percentage of Poor Population in Sulawesi Island in 2023, considering various factors that influence poverty. Eradicating extreme poverty has become a top priority to be achieved by 2030. This study examines the influence of several variables, such as Open Unemployment Rate, Human Development Index, Labor Force Participation Rate, Average Length of Schooling, Percentage of Access to Proper Sanitation, and Gross Regional Domestic Product, on the Percentage of Poor Population in Sulawesi Island, using the Kernel Priestley-Chao estimation in Semiparametric regression with an Ordinary Least Square approach. This study also applies the selection of optimal bandwidth using the minimum Generalized Cross Validation method with an optimal bandwidth of 0.991, resulting in a Mean Absolute Percentage Error value of 16.32%. The model shows excellent estimation results, with a residual coefficient value of 69% used to model the Percentage of Poor Population data with a high level of accuracy. The data used partially has a parametric pattern, while some do not have a specific pattern, and there are outliers.
Forecasting International Tourist Arrivals to Indonesia Using LSTM: Post-Pandemic Analysis for 2024-2025 Ayu Sofia; Dien, Zulfanita; Erda, Gustriza
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.7309

Abstract

As Indonesia's main foreign exchange contributor, the tourism sector experienced significant dynamics after the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by a sharp decline in the number of foreign tourists during the pandemic and consistent recovery in the post-pandemic period. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourists to Indonesia from September 2024 to August 2025 using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. The LSTM model is optimized with an 80:20 data split for training testing and uses optimal parameters, namely Learning Rate 0.005, Batch Size 64, Optimizer Adam, and Epoch 200. The prediction results show an increase in the number of tourists to a peak of 1,390,564 in November 2024, followed by a gradual decline to 987,970 in August 2025, with an accuracy level indicated by a MAPE value of 14.39%
Evaluating Statistical Power in t-Test and Welch’s Test Using Monte Carlo Simulation Approach Tengku Irfan Wira Buana; Arisman Adnan
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.7407

Abstract

Statistical hypothesis testing is a key method in inferential statistics for assessing whether group differences are simply due to chance or amount to actual effect. One of the central concepts in hypothesis testing is statistical power. Statistical power is the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. Low statistical power increases the risk of Type II errors, leading to misleading conclusions. This study explores the key factors influencing statistical power, including sample size, effect size, variance, and significance level. Monte Carlo simulation method was utilized in this study to examine the statistical power associated with the two-sample t-test across various combinations of sample size, effect size (mean difference), and population variance. Simulations were conducted by generating random samples, performing variance tests, and applying either the Student’s t-test or Welch’s t-test based on variance equality. The results confirmed that statistical power increases with larger sample sizes and greater effect sizes, while higher variance and stricter significance levels reduce power. Welch’s t-test was found to be more reliable than the standard t-test in cases of unequal variances, reinforcing its importance in real-world data analysis. These findings show the importance of careful study design in hypothesis testing. Researchers must consider and plan the study so that there is enough power to detect meaningful effects. Future studies should examine different statistical methods of power, and potentially extend the simulation to different non-normal distributions for hypothesis testing.
Performance Comparison of Random Forest and XGBoost Optimized with Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Coconut Milk Adulteration Detection Using FTIR Spectroscopy I Gusti Ngurah, Sentana Putra; Kusman Sadik; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Cici Suhaeni
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.7817

Abstract

Coconut milk has emerged as a strategic food commodity in the global tropical region, with market demand growing at 7.2% per annum since 2021. This increasing demand has led to sophisticated adulteration practices, including dilution with water. Such adulteration not only reduces the nutritional value but also poses serious health risks, including food poisoning and allergic reactions. This study developed an innovative detection method combining Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy with a sophisticated machine learning algorithm. We analyzed 719 coconut milk samples (wavelength range 2500-4000 nm) consisting of traditional market products and instant commercial products. This study aims to develop an FTIR-based coconut milk adulteration detection model by optimizing RF and XGBoost parameters using CSA and evaluating the comparative performance of the two models in identifying different types of adulterants. The spectral data underwent rigorous preprocessing using a combination of Standard Normal Variate (SNV) and Savitzky-Golay (SG) techniques to overcome the effects of noise and light scattering, which significantly improved feature extraction. The results show that CSA-optimized XGBoost achieves superior performance with 92% accuracy and 91% F1 score, outperforming Random Forest in all evaluation metrics. The model shows particular strength in precision (98%), indicating its outstanding ability to minimize false positives in adulteration detection. Stability tests through 30 experimental repetitions reveal that the combination of XGBoost+CSA maintains consistent performance with minimal variance, confirming its reliability for industrial applications. Comparative analysis shows that the combination of SNV+SG preprocessing improves the accuracy of the baseline model by 9-12%, while CSA optimization provides an additional performance improvement of 10-15%. This research makes significant contributions to food science and safety. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of CSA in optimizing spectroscopic models, achieving 19.5% higher precision. The combination of SNV+SG preprocessing improves the baseline accuracy by 9-12%, while CSA optimization provides an additional performance improvement of 10-15%. This study not only provides a rapid and non-destructive adulteration detection solution but also proves the effectiveness of the CSA approach in optimizing the spectroscopic model. These findings have important implications for strengthening food safety regulations and developing real-time quality control systems in the coconut milk industry.
Effect of Feature Normalization and Distance Metrics on K-Nearest Neighbors Performance for Diabetes Disease Classification Yusran, Muhammad; Sadik, Kusman; Soleh, Agus M; Suhaeni, Cici
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8012

Abstract

Diabetes is a global health issue with a steadily increasing prevalence each year. Early detection of the disease is an important step in preventing severe complications. The K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm is often used in disease classification, but its performance is highly influenced by the choice of normalization method and distance metric used. This study aims to evaluate the effect of various normalization methods and distance metrics on the performance of the KNN algorithm in diabetes disease classification. The three normalization methods were employed: z-score normalization, min-max scaling, and median absolute deviation (MAD). In addition, the seven distance metrics were assessed: Euclidean, Manhattan, Chebyshev, Canberra, Hassanat, Lorentzian, and Clark. The dataset used is Pima Indians Diabetes which consists of 768 observations and 8 features. The data were split into 80% training data and 20% test data, and using 5-fold cross-validation to determine the optimal k value. The results show that the MAD-Canberra combination produces the highest overall accuracy, recall, and F1-score of 87.32%, 82.33%, and 81.94%, respectively. The highest precision was obtained from the Baseline-Hassanat combination at 86.96%, while the lowest performance was observed for the Z-Score-Chebyshev combination with F1-Score 58.02%. These results highlight that no single combination universally outperforms others, underscoring the need for empirical evaluation. Nonetheless, combining MAD normalization with metrics such as Canberra or Hassanat can serve as a strong starting point for developing KNN-based classification systems, especially in medical contexts that are sensitive to misclassification.
Partial Least Square-Path Modeling Analysis of Factors Influencing the Consumptive Behaviour of Generation Z Agustina, Melisa; Djakaria, Ismail; Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Adityaningrum, Amanda
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8014

Abstract

Consumptive Behaviour refers to individuals’ purchasing behaviour without considering long-term needs and financial conditions. This research presents the results of an analysis of the consumptive behaviour of Generation Z in Dungingi Sub-District, Gorontalo City, selected because it represents the second-largest Generation Z population in the city. The study used the Partial Least Square-Path Modeling (PLS-PM) method to measure factors influencing consumptive behaviour: financial literacy, fear of missing out (FOMO), and hedonistic lifestyle. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling, resulting in 378 respondents aged 17-27 years who are employed. The analysis results indicate that financial literacy and FOMO significantly influence consumptive behaviour, with FOMO being the most dominant factor. The resulting model has a value of 0,930, meaning that the three latent variables can explain 93,0% of the consumptive behaviour of Generation Z. This study is expected to provide useful insights for policymakers and related parties in adressing consumptive behaviour issues among Generation Z. Keywords: PLS-PM; Consumptive Behaviour; Generation Z
Exploration of Mathematical Literacy the Concept of Structural Geometry and Design in the Death Car Monument in Bondowoso Fachrudi, Della Septania; panglipur, indah rahayu; Marsidi, Marsidi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8030

Abstract

This research aims to explore mathematical literacy through the structure and design of the Death Train Monument in Bondowoso as a medium for learning geometric concepts. With an exploratory approach and descriptive method, data were collected through observation and documentation to identify geometric elements such as trapezoids, rectangles, circles, cuboids, and geometric transformations. The research results show that the monument not only has historical value but also contains various geometric shapes that can be utilized as contextual learning resources in mathematics education based on local culture. This research recommends the integration of ethnomathematics in education as an effort to enhance mathematical literacy and appreciation for cultural heritage.
Analysis and Optimization of Rainfall Prediction in Makassar City Using Artificial Neural Networks Based on Data Augmentation, Regularization, and Bayesian Optimization Abdullah, Adib Roisilmi; Sadik, Kusman; Suhaeni, Cici; Saleh, Agus Muhammad
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8304

Abstract

This study develops a robust and efficient rainfall prediction model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), significantly enhanced through integrated data augmentation, regularization, and Bayesian optimization techniques. We utilized a dataset of 118 monthly rainfall records from Makassar City, spanning 2014–2022, sourced from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). To effectively capture inherent temporal patterns, lag features (specifically lag-1, lag-3, and lag-6 rainfall values) were meticulously constructed as input variables. Subsequently, Min-Max normalization was applied across all features, ensuring input consistency and optimizing the ANN's learning process. An initial manual grid search identified the most effective baseline ANN architecture, featuring four hidden layers ([128, 32, 16, 64] neurons), a tanh activation function, and a learning rate of 0.01. While the baseline ANN model achieved a commendable initial performance with an RMSE of 0.1608, comprehensive experiments revealed the superior benefits of a fully integrated approach. This advanced model, which synergistically combined data augmentation (to address data limitations and enhance generalization), regularization (to mitigate overfitting), and Bayesian optimization (for efficient hyperparameter tuning), demonstrated significantly improved generalization capabilities and enhanced model stability. This integrated model yielded an RMSE of 0.1861, an MSE of 0.0346, and an MAE of 0.1359. These compelling findings unequivocally underscore that integrated optimization strategies are crucial for developing more robust and reliable ANN-based rainfall prediction models, particularly for critical applications in climate-based time series forecasting.
Deepfake Image Classification Using ResNet50 Feature Extraction and XGBoost Learning Model Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni; Adriani, Ika Reskiana; Hafid, Mega Sartika; Andy B, Afif Budi; Rizal, Muhammad Edy
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8387

Abstract

Deepfake is an artificial intelligence-based media manipulation technology that realistically fabricates a person's face, voice, and movements in both video and audio formats. The increasing use of deepfakes in the creation of various forms of deceptive content, including pornography, fake news, and fraud, has led to an urgent need for effective detection methods. One of the main challenges in detecting deepfakes is the high quality and realism of synthetic media, which renders conventional detection techniques less effective. Therefore, machine learning techniques capable of recognizing subtle patterns in visual data that are imperceptible to the human eye are required. This study aims to develop a deepfake image detection system using a hybrid machine learning approach that combines ResNet50 for feature extraction and XGBoost for classification. The pre-trained ResNet50 model, originally trained on the large-scale ImageNet dataset, is utilized to extract visual representations from images in the form of feature vectors. These features are then classified using XGBoost to distinguish between authentic and AI-generated images based on subtle patterns embedded within the extracted features. The results demonstrate that this hybrid approach achieves an accuracy of 94.6% in detecting deepfake images by leveraging the deep representation power of CNNs and the advanced classification capabilities of XGBoost. This method is not only computationally efficient but also highly relevant for integration into adaptive digital security systems.
Performance Evaluation of Multinomial Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost Methods in Data Classification Mega Maulina; Hiola, Yani Prihantini; Indahwati; Aam Alamudi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8459

Abstract

The development of data volume and complexity in the digital era increases the need for effective classification methods to support decision-making. Decision-making in classification tasks often requires methods that are well-suited to the data, along with the ability to produce accurate and reliable predictions. As scientific knowledge continues to advance, a wide range of classification methods have been developed. This study aims to analyze the performance of three commonly used classification methods Multinomial Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost, in handling diverse data characteristics. Ten varied public datasets were used in this research, with differences in the number of classes, features, instances, balanced and imbalanced data conditions. Evaluation was conducted based on accuracy, F1-score, precision, and recall. The analysis results show that Random Forest consistently delivers the best performance particularly on imbalanced data. XGBoost demonstrates superiority on more complex datasets, while Multinomial Logistic Regression proves more effective on relatively small datasets. This research provides valuable insights into selecting appropriate classification methods based on data characteristics and highlights the effectiveness of ensemble-based approaches in handling diverse data. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the selection of classification algorithms be tailored to the characteristics of the dataset. Random Forest is preferable for handling imbalanced data, while XGBoost is ideal for complex datasets requiring robust hyperparameter tuning. Multinomial Logistic Regression remains a viable option for simpler datasets with fewer observations and features. Future research could explore hybrid models that combine these approaches to further optimize classification performance across various domains.

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