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Devni Prima Sari
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devniprimasari@fmipa.unp.ac.id
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Data Analytics, Mathematical Modelling, and Forecasting (DMF) Research Group Department of Mathematics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Universitas Negeri Padang Jalan Prof. Dr. Hamka, Air Tawar Padang, Sumatera Barat Web: mjomaf.ppj.unp.ac.id Email: mjomaf@ppj.unp.ac.id
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INDONESIA
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : -     EISSN : 29881013     DOI : https://doi.org/10.24036/mjmf.v1i2
Core Subject : Economy, Science,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting are scientific journals in the fields of mathematics, statistics, actuarial, financial mathematics, computational mathematics, and applied mathematics. This journal is published twice a year, precisely in June and December in an online version. All publications are available in full text and free to download.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika Terapan
Articles 33 Documents
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The Comparison of Parameter Estimation in Exponential Distribution using Maximum Likelihood Method and Bayesian Method Grandianus Mada; Cecilia Noviyanti Salsinha; Beatrix Farena Mun
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.2

Abstract

This study aims to compare the parameter estimation process on the exponential distribution using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method on service data at Bank BRI Atambua Branch. The result of processing data on 100 service time data obtained parameter values for the maximum likelihood method = 0,050942 and the Bayesian = 1,0008. By using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) feasibility test for these parameters, the AIC value for the maximum likelihood method was 797,4122 and the AIC value for the Bayesian method was 3.931,1002 so it can be concluded that the maximum likelihood method is better used to estimate parameters than Bayesian method.
Solving the Problem of Profit Maximization in Najwa Sewing House Textile Business in Salatiga Stefany Margaretha Hutauruk; Farisca Ayu Pitaningtyas; Wakhid Fitri Albar; Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.4

Abstract

Linear programs are often referred to as linear problem-solving methods, one of which is the simplex method. The simplex method is an approach that the author can use in solving a linear program problem in determining the optimal solution that has two or more decision variables where in determining the combination itself can be repeated iterating over the simplex table until the optimum value is found in the optimization problem that has been studied. The business world must have optimization problems that include maximum profits and minimum costs where both problems can be solved using the simplex method. The research began on May 14, 2023 at Najwa Sewing House (Clothing Store) Ngelosari, Jombor, Kec.Tuntang, Semarang Regency. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the simplex method in a linear program so that maximum profit is obtained in the production of Najwa Sewing House. The analysis carried out in this study is an analysis using the simplex method with calculations assisted by excel applications. The results showed that the amount of optimum production from each product capacity at Najwa Sewing House resulted in a maximum profit of IDR 2.550.000.
Profit Optimization of Ngawen Orchid MSME Ighfirli Amanda Izzati; Aida Haya Afifah; Neisya Jamilatus Syarifah; Wakhid Fitri Albar; Deddy Rahmadi
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.5

Abstract

The Ngawen Orchid MSME (Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise) in Ngawen Hamlet, Ngawen Village, Muntilan District, Magelang Regency is a promising business opportunity. Apart from being in great demand, ornamental orchid plants also have a very high selling value. Orchid ornamental plants that are cultivated consist of three types: Dendrobium, Cattleya, and Phalaenopsis. This study aims to optimize profits by considering the number of plants and fertilizers used. This optimal profit can be achieved by applying the science of linear programming, one of which is the simplex method. The data collection techniques used in this study were interviews and direct observation of the Ngawen Orchid MSME. Based on the results of a linear programming analysis of the number of ornamental plants of Ngawen Orchid cultivation, optimal benefits were obtained from planting 40 Cattleya and 40 Phalaenopsis types orchids and there was no need to plant Dendrobium types, to get an optimal profit of IDR 4,600,000.
Optimization of Aqua Gallon Water Distribution Cost at Mega Mas Water Depot by VAM and MODI Najma Fatikasari; Bhernita Mila Yasinta; Wakhid Fitri Albar
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.6

Abstract

This study aims to obtain optimal distribution costs for selling gallons of water at the Air Mega Mas Depot, Sekaran. The data analysis method used is the transportation method, using the VAM (Vogel's Approximation Method) method for the initial solution and the optimal test using the MODI (Modified Distribution) method. Air Mega Mas Depot is faced with the problem of increasing marketing costs due to the lack of regular distribution patterns from the source to the marketing destination, so the company tries to optimize the transportation costs incurred. The distribution of gallon water products at the Air Mega Mas Depot using the transportation method gets optimal results. The costs incurred by the Air Mega Mas Depot for the distribution of gallons of water for a 2-month period (March-April) are Rp. 2.520.000 while for the optimal calculation results for the distribution of gallons of water, a cost of IDR 2.435.000 is obtained. Based on this analysis, Air Mega Mas Depot can optimize distribution costs for the March-April period of IDR 85.000.
Analysis of Raw Material Inventory Control using the ABC Analysis Method and EOQ Method in the Fajar Onion Crackers Business Ledy Vanesa; Helma Helma
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.7

Abstract

Inventory control is one aspect that affect the company's smooth operation. In this study, the Activity Based Costing (ABC) analysis method and the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method are applied to control raw material inventory. The Bawang Fajar cracker business is one of the SMEs whose raw material inventory control has yet to use the ABC analysis method and the EOQ method. This research is applied research. Based on the results of this study, it was found that the grouping of raw material inventories according to ABC analysis was divided into three groups, namely group A; wheat flour and cooking oil, group B; eggs, and group C; onion and garlic. The TIC value based on the EOQ method is Rp. 1,749,102.00, while the TIC value based on the method used by the company is Rp. 3,582,200.00. So that the EOQ method is more effective than the method used by the company in the Fajar Bawang Crackers Business.
Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis on Cases of Malnutrition Under Five in the West Sumatra Fifi Sandriani; Helma Helma
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.8

Abstract

Malnutrition is a condition experienced by toddlers due to low nutrition or nutritional needs that have not been met. Effort to improve health status by improving the nutritional status of toddlers. The purpose of this research is clarify the Geographically Weighted Regression model is the best model when compared to the multiple linear regression model. The data used was obtained data from the West Sumatra Provincial Helath Office for 2020. The dependent variable used is the percentage of cases of malnutrition and there are several independent variables, namely the percentage of children under five who were given vitamin A, the percentage of babies who were exclusively breastfeed, and babies born with low birth weight. The results showed that the gwr model can explain the diversity of cases of malnutrition of children under five by 99% with a total squared error of 0.002 compared with multiple linear regression model which is able to explain the diversity of cases of malnutrition among children under five by 43% with a total squared errors of 0.585. It is concluded that the gwr model is the best model.
The Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realite (ELECTRE) Method in Determining Priority for Acceptance of the Family Hope Program (Jorong Sawah Kareh Nagari Balimbing) Mira Sartika; Dewi Murni
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.10

Abstract

Poverty is a hard issue to solve. Therefore the government held a program to help reduce poverty, namely the Family Hope Program (FHP). However, the problems that occur are that there are still FHP recipients who are not on target. Where the ELECTRE method is the method used to determine ranking by considering the importance level criterion of each, in cases with other alternatives but only a criterion is involved. The results of the study using the ELECTRE method obtained that the alternative that was prioritized for FHP beneficiaries was the alternative with the top ranking, for the number of alternatives that were prioritized depending on the decision maker, namely the Nagari Balimbing office.
Determination of the Disability Premium there is Life Insurance with Annual Payment for Type Benefit Waiver of Premium esti marsela; Siska Yosmar; Septri Damayanti
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i1.11

Abstract

When there is a work accident that results in someone becoming disabled or sick, it often leads to termination of employment (layoff) for reasons of productivity. A person who has a chance of having a work accident needs to buy a disability life insurance policy to reduce the financial losses that occur. One type of disability benefit in life insurance is the waiver of premiums. The purpose of this study is to determine the amount of annual disability premium that will be paid to be able to benefit from the type of benefit waiver of premium on dual-purpose life insurance either manually or using Excel Visual Basic for Application. The results showed that the calculation of annual premiums can be generalized that the older the insured, the greater the premium paid. Meanwhile, the greater the policy term, the smaller the premium paid.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Non-Compliance with Traffic Regulations for Motorcycle Users of Mathematics Students UNP Indah Permata; Helma
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.12

Abstract

The number of violations that occurred in 2019–2022 on types of motorcycle vehicles concluded that motorcycle violations in Padang City experienced fluctuations. The number of violations is quite high for students. Based on this incident, this research aims to find out about the factor analysis model and what factors influence non-compliance with motorcycle traffic regulations. The data used is primary data obtained from giving questionnaires to UNP Mathematics student respondents, and factor analysis is used to analyze the data. According to the study's findings, the factors formed were as follows: factor 1 was wearing a national standard helmet, having a driver's license, having a vehicle registration, the vehicle meeting technical requirements based on the law, the driver meeting the requirements based on regulations, and factor 2 was obeying signal lights, obeying traffic signs, and understanding traffic rules.
University Election Analysis Logistic Regression Approach with Dummy and Ordinal Variables Miftha Delinda; Devni Prima Sari
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.13

Abstract

Education has a very important role to advance the development of a country. One of them is the university. Thus, if you continue your studies at university, it is hoped that you will have the knowledge and skills in accordance with the study program you are taking, which will later become the basic capital to be more competent in the world of work. Logistic regression is a statistical method that can be used to determine the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students. The dependent variable consists of two categories. This research aims to determine the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students. This type of research is applied research and uses primary data obtained from filling out questionnaires. This research was carried out at SMAN 3 Padang. The population in this study were all students in class XII Phase F at SMA Negeri 3 Padang with a sample of 78 students obtained using the Purposive Sampling method. The results of the research show that the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students at SMA Negeri 3 Padang are father's work based on educated and trained labor, father's work based on educated labor, father's work based on trained labor, father's work based on uneducated and unskilled labor, convenient university location, easy access to transportation, rent, food and daily living costs -affordable days according to budget, and information from social media and websites.

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