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Devni Prima Sari
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Data Analytics, Mathematical Modelling, and Forecasting (DMF) Research Group Department of Mathematics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Universitas Negeri Padang Jalan Prof. Dr. Hamka, Air Tawar Padang, Sumatera Barat Web: mjomaf.ppj.unp.ac.id Email: mjomaf@ppj.unp.ac.id
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INDONESIA
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : -     EISSN : 29881013     DOI : https://doi.org/10.24036/mjmf.v1i2
Core Subject : Economy, Science,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting are scientific journals in the fields of mathematics, statistics, actuarial, financial mathematics, computational mathematics, and applied mathematics. This journal is published twice a year, precisely in June and December in an online version. All publications are available in full text and free to download.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika Terapan
Articles 33 Documents
 1   2   3   4 
On Finding Shortest Path Over Vocational High School in Yogyakarta Based on Graph Theory Algorithm Deddy Rahmadi
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.14

Abstract

Finding shortest path is one of problem in graph theory. This research aims to apply the Dijkstra algorithm in determining the shortest route for State Vocational School (SMK) students throughout Yogyakarta. State Vocational Schools throughout Yogyakarta have several locations spread across various regions, and determining the shortest path is crucial for the efficiency of students' time and transportation. Dijkstra's algorithm was chosen because of its ability to find the shortest path in a weighted graph, which can be applied to complex networks of school trajectories. The research method involved collecting geographic data on schools, available transportation, and distance between locations. This data is used to build a weighted graph that represents the transportation network between State Vocational Schools throughout Yogyakarta. The implementation of Dijkstra's algorithm is then carried out using python programming language. We hope that the research results can provide mapping of the shortest routes between schools, minimize student travel time, and increase transportation efficiency. The practical implications of this research include the development of an information system or application that can help students, teachers and schools in planning daily trips. Apart from that, the research results can also be a basis for developing methods for determining the shortest route in the context of other schools or similar environments.
Electricity Load Forecasting in East Kalimantan on Religious Holidays Using SARIMA Primadina Hasanah; Chindy Alvionita Sari; Syalam Ali Wira Dinata
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.15

Abstract

The availability of electrical energy is one of the main focus in energy security in East Kalimantan. Power outages often occur in East Kalimantan both in weekdays and holidays. Some previous research had conducted to estimate the electricity demand during certain years. However, there are some particular events which are interesting to be carried out. For example, the electricity demands on holiday events such as the religious holidays which are important moment among Indonesian. This research was conducted to find the best model to predict how many electrical loads in East Kalimantan should be prepared by Indonesian’s State Electricity Company (PT PLN) in order to ensure comfortable for communities on religious holidays. Two sample religious holidays have been taken; Eid al-Fitr and Christmas Day, then the forecasting was carried out using SARIMA model on historical hourly data from 2015-2018. The result of this research shown that the best SARIMA model on Eid al-Fitr is SARIMA (0,2,1)(0,1,0)24 with 16,99% of MAPE and the best SARIMA model on Christmas Day is SARIMA (0,2,1)(0,1,0)24 with 8.68%.of MAPE.
Factors influencing the Poverty Depth Index in West Sumatra Province through Panel Data Regression Analysis Mutia Syifa; Helma
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.16

Abstract

The poverty depth index is one of the measures that can be used in measuring the poverty level in a region well. This is because the poverty depth index measures the depth of poverty by focusing on the expenditure gap of the poor against the poverty line. Based on BPS West Sumatra data for 2017-2022, the IKK which was initially at 1,00 rose to 1,04 in 2018, in 2019 it fell to 0,94, in 2020 it fell to 0,92, but in 2021 it rose to 1,04 and fell to 0,8 in 2022. The dynamics that occur in the IKK show that the government's efforts in dealing with poverty problems have not been optimal. Therefore, a study was conducted to determine the model and factors that affect the IKK in West Sumatra Province using panel data regression analysis. After the research was conducted, the best estimation model obtained was the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The factors that affect IKK in 2017-2022 are average per capita expenditure and human development index.
Factors Affecting Economic Growth in West Sumatera Province Using Panel Data Regression Analysis Sherly Helma Putri; Helma
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.17

Abstract

Economic development is considered successful if the economic growth rate of its people reaches a high level. Indonesia has positive economic growth with economic growth rates above 5% in each quarter. However, the high economic growth of Indonesia does not mean that all regions have the same growth rate. Where the increase in the number of goods and services received or the added value of production factors is often referred to as economic growth. Regional economic growth in West Sumatera Province is known to tend to be negative. This study aims to obtain an overview of panel data regression models and factors that have an influence on economic growth in West Sumatera Province for the period 2018 to 2022. The best regression model obtained is the fixed effect model (FEM), where at a significant level of 5%, the factors that have an influence and positive relationship on economic growth are the human development index and government spending.
Prediction of Cooking Oil Production Amount Using the Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur Method Rahmawati Rahmawati; Annisa Fitri Ramadani
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v1i2.18

Abstract

Cooking oil is used as a medium for frying foodstuffs that are widely consumed by the general public. Cooking oil can be produced from various raw materials, for example, coconut, copra, palm oil, soybeans, corn seeds, sunflower seeds, olive seeds, and others. This research aims to determine the predicted results of the amount of cooking oil production at PT. Pulau Sambu Kuala Enok and find out the results of forecasting the amount of cooking oil production at PT. Pulau Sambu Kuala Enok in 2023. The method used in this research is Ruey Chyn Tsaur's Fuzzy Time Series. Based on the results of data processing, forecasting results were obtained for January to December 2022 and this forecast has a MAPE value of 17.25%. The research results show that the Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur method has a good level of accuracy for predicting the amount of cooking oil production.
Optimal Portfolio Risk Estimation Using Expected Shortfall of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Shares Lestari, Adika Risky; Sari, Devni Prima
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.19

Abstract

Forming an optimal portfolio using the Mean-Variance method with Downside Deviation as a measure of risk produces a good combination of assets. Before investing, estimating risk as a worst-case scenario is very important. Expected shortfall (ES) serves as a risk measure that takes into account the possibility of losses that exceed Value at Risk (VaR). This study aims to determine the optimal portfolio and compare ES and VaR at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels. This research data involves 3 stocks namely ACES, WIFI, and TLKM. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, the optimal combination of weights is ACES (19%), WIFI (10%), and TLKM (71%). Comparison of ES and VaR shows that the higher the level of confidence, the higher the VaR and ES values generated, so the greater the risk that will be borne by investors and the capital allocation used to cover these losses.
Comparison of the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and the Heuristic Model in Forecasting the Number of International Tourists in West Sumatra Rizki Akbar; Fitri, Fadhilah; Vionanda, Dodi; Mukhti, Tessy Octavia
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.20

Abstract

The Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Heuristic are two forecasting methods based on fuzzy logic used to predict values in time series. The FTS Chen and Heuristic models have almost identical forecasting processes, but the main difference lies in how they develop fuzzy logical relationships. The FTS Chen model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups obtained from the results of Fuzzy Logical Relationships for the forecasting process. On the other hand, the FTS Heuristic model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationships directly in the forecasting process. Fuzzy Logical Relationships are a collection of fuzzy logical relationships used to connect values in time series. By using Fuzzy Logical Relationships, the Heuristic model can predict values in time series more accurately and effectively. The forecasting is done to plan the development of tourism infrastructure, determine service needs, and optimize tourism promotion. The data shows that the number of foreign tourists visiting West Sumatra has continued to grow from 2006 to 2023. The comparison of the accuracy of the forecasting results of FTS Chen and Heuristic models for foreign tourists in West Sumatra yielded a MAPE of 0.241% for FTS model Chen and 0.194% for FTS model Heuristic. This indicates that the best forecasting model for foreign tourists is the Heuristic model due to its lower MAPE value.
Modeling Network Problem using Metric Dimension: Applied Algorithm on Corona Graph Rahmadi, Deddy; Ramadhani, Ilma Nindita; Dheana, Clarissa Elva; Mustamin, Miftah Aulia
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.21

Abstract

Let G be a graph is a finite set of vertices and edges.  A graph G can be defined as a pair of sets . The minimum cardinality of all distinguishing sets in a graph is called the metric dimension. The metric dimension was first introduced in 1966 by Harary and Melter. The method used in this research is deductive proof. The results obtained from this research are we determine the metric dimension of the graph resulting from the corona operation on  and obtain the result that is 2n.
Analysis of Product Quality Control Using the Taguchi Method and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) at the Pabrik Tahu Alami Gulo, Trimodesman Hardinsyah; Sari, Devni Prima
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.22

Abstract

Indonesia's rapid economic growth in the global business sector has intensified competition among entrepreneurs, necessitating stringent control over product quality for companies to sustain their market position. This study utilizes the Taguchi method and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to enhance quality control processes. The Taguchi method focuses on offline quality control with a single response, while PCA is employed for multiple responses. Experiments were conducted at Pabrik Tahu Alami, examining four factors: soybean rate, soaking time, boiling time, and whey water rate, each at three levels. The optimal combination determined was 3 kg of soybeans (level 1), 4 hours of soaking time (level 1), 20 minutes of boiling time (level 2), and 5 litres of whey water (level 2). These results provide a robust framework for optimizing product quality in similar production settings.
Application of the Inflection Point in the Evaluation of the Halley and Newton-Raphson Techniques for Finding the Root of Non-Linear Equations Apriano, Laode; Rizal, Yusmet
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.23

Abstract

Numeric Method is one of the methods used to solve nonlinear equation roots. Many methods can be used, both open methods and closed methods. In this case, the method used is closed, namely the Newton-Raphson Method and Halley Method. The research aims to find out the comparison result between the Newton-Raphson Method and the Halley Method. The research used a literature method from a book, journal, and any other literature, where it connected with the topic. The steps used are formulation problem, finding and collecting information, describing and explaining the information, analysis, and conclusion of the result. The conclusion can be explained with a table of data and explanations Based on data analysis, it can be stated that the Halley Method is faster toward convergence compared to the Newton-Raphson Method based on the first case or second case.

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