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Deconstructing National Food Security: A Spatial Analysis of Paddy Field Conversion and Rice Production Volatility Based on Area Frame Sampling (AFS) Data Luh Putu Suciati; Pieter J. Kunu
Agriculture Journal Vol 3 No 1 (2026): February, 2026
Publisher : CV. HEI PUBLISHING INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70076/apj.v3i1.150

Abstract

This study analyzes the structural vulnerability of national food security by examining the spatial impact of paddy field conversion on rice production volatility. Production instability is influenced by several key factors, including land-use change, climate-related harvest failures, and the degradation of primary irrigation infrastructure. Using the Area Frame Sampling (AFS) approach from 2020 to 2024, this research integrates remote sensing data with field observations to measure the loss of productive agricultural land. The results reveal a 4.22% decline in the national harvest area. In Java, the conversion of technically irrigated paddy fields leads to an estimated loss of 11.4 tons of Milled Dried Grain (MDG) per hectare annually, reflecting a significant reduction in production capacity due to the disappearance of multi-cropping systems. Spatial regression analysis shows a strong relationship (R² = 0.78) between infrastructure expansion and rice supply instability. This finding indicates that irreversible land-use change, rather than yield fluctuation, is the primary driver of production volatility. The results suggest that national food security is approaching a critical threshold. Therefore, the study recommends implementing a moratorium on paddy field conversion, strengthening field-level spatial monitoring, integrating food security policies, and providing fiscal incentives to protect remaining agricultural land.
UJI VALIDASI  SISTEM  PREDIKSI PERINGATAN DINI BERBASIS DAMPAK UNTUK BENCANA BANJIR DI KOTA AMBON Iriyanto, Suaif; Kunu, Pieter J; Puturuhu, Ferad; Talakua, Silwanus M
JTSL (Jurnal Tanah dan Sumberdaya Lahan) Vol. 13 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Tanah, Fakultas Bio-industri Pertanian dan Kehutanan, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jtsl.2026.013.2.10

Abstract

Ambon City a high level of vulnerability to floods due to steep topography, extreme rainfall, and land use that exceeds land capability. Floods pose a serious threat to community safety and cause damage to infrastructure. Risk reduction requires an accurate and well-implemented early warning system. This study aims to analyze the spatial level of flood disaster risk, examine the distribution of extreme rainfall during rainfall events, and assess the accuracy of the Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services System (IBFWS). The research method includes spatial analysis using a Geographic Information System (GIS) through an overlay approach of three risk components: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. The study also applies Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) methods for spatial interpolation of 24-hour rainfall data from the events on May 11 and May 30, 2023, and conducts spatial validation of the IBFWS prediction results against actual landslide occurrences. The results show that 75.6% of Ambon City falls into the high-risk category for floods. Multiple linear regression analysis indicates that slope gradient is the most significant variable influencing floods hazard, with an R² value of 90.6% and an S value of 0.120. Spatial validation and field verification demonstrate that the accuracy of the IBFWS reached 94% for the floods event on May 11 and 100% for the event on May 30, 2023. These findings indicate that the IBFWS functions as a reliable early warning system to support floods disaster risk reduction in Ambon City.