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All Journal Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity
JATNA SUPRIATNA
Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia. Jl. Lingkar Akademik, Depok 16424, West Java, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology

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Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; JATNA SUPRIATNA; NISYAWATI NISYAWATI; ILYAS NURSAMSI; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; PRAKASH PRADAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 21 No. 10 (2020)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d211053

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.
Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; JATNA SUPRIATNA; NISYAWATI NISYAWATI; ILYAS NURSAMSI; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; PRAKASH PRADAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 22 No. 4 (2021)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d220458

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.
Anticipated climate changes reveal shifting in habitat suitability of high-altitude selaginellas in Java, Indonesia AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; Jatna Supriatna; Nisyawati; Ilyas Nursamsi; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; Prakash Pradan; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 21 No. 11 (2020)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d211157

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Anticipated climate changes reveal shifting in habitat suitability of high-altitude selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 5482-5497. High-altitude ecosystems with humid and cool climate are the preferred habitat for some Selaginella species (selaginellas). Such habitats are available in Java, Indonesia, which also has fertile soils with rich mineral contents resulted from volcanic activities. However, the high-altitude ecosystems in Java are threatened by various anthropogenic activities as well as changes in climate conditions, potentially affecting some Selaginella species. This study aimed to investigate the shift in suitable habitat of four species of high-altitude Selaginella spp. (Selaginella involvens, S. opaca, S. ornata, and S. remotifolia) in Java Island under current and future climate conditions predicted by several representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Presence data of Selaginella localities were collected from field survey between 2007 and 2014 across the island, as well as occurrence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. A total of 1,721 occurrence points data along with environmental and climate data were used to develop species distribution models using MaxEnt. Future habitat distributions were projected under four climate scenarios to see the shift in suitable habitat and altitudinal ranges. The results showed that the distribution of the four high-altitude Selaginella species are strongly influenced by altitude, annual average temperature, and annual rainfall. In the present time, 37.32% (48,974 km2) of the area of Java has been predicted to be suitable for high-altitude Selaginella. Under the optimistic climate scenario (RCP 2.6), the highly suitable area will likely to decrease by almost 35% in the year 2080, whereas the medium and low suitable areas will reduce by about 37.2% and 18.3%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), about 21.2% of low suitable areas will be lost in 2080, whereas the medium and highly suitable areas are predicted to decrease by around 38.1% and 33.4%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario, there will be upward shift by 51.1 m in the year 2030 from the current’s mean altitude and will shift by almost 150 m in the year 2080. The maximum altitude of predicted suitable habitat is also predicted to increase to reach almost 3500 m asl in the year 2080. The results of this study imply that habitat shift of four high-altitude Selaginella species varies depending on the scenario, but in all cases, the losses are greater than gains.
Prediction of potential climate change impacts on the geographic distribution shift of Casuarina junghuhniana and C. equisetifolia in Southeast Asia HASNA KHAIRUNNISA; MINI AMBARWATI KUSUMA DEWI; MUHAMMAD AMJAD HAMY FAQIIH; MUHAMMAD REYNALDY PUTRAYUDA; GILANG DWI NUGROHO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; JATNA SUPRIATNA; ILYAS NURSAMSI; GUNAWAN GUNAWAN; PRAKASH PRADHAN; AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 24 No. 11 (2023)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d241161

Abstract

Abstract. Khairunnisa H, Dewi MAK, Faqiih MAH, Putrayuda MR, Nugroho GD, Indrawan M, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Supriatna J, Nursamsi I, Pradhan P, Setyawan AD. 2024. Prediction of potential climate change impacts on the geographic distribution shift of Casuarina junghuhniana and C. equisetifolia in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 23: 6360-6371. Global warming, driven by various anthropogenic activities, leads to an increase in earth’s surface temperatures, exerting a profound influence on global climate patterns. This phenomenon significantly impacts the growth patterns of various plant species, including Casuarina equisetifolia L., commonly known as sea cypress, and Casuarina junghuhniana Miq., referred to as mountain cypress. The primary objective of this study is to assess the potential repercussions of climate change on the distribution of these two species within Southeast Asia. To achieve this goal, the study utilized the MaxEnt modeling approach, incorporating key factors such as bioclimatic conditions, soil characteristics (edaphic factors), and UV radiation levels. Present study considered three distinct time intervals (2030, 2050, and 2080) while exploring four diverse climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). The findings of this investigation reveal that both C. equisetifolia and C. junghuhniana are susceptible to alterations in the extent of suitable habitat distribution, which result in shifts in their geographic ranges due to evolving climatic conditions. Initially, the habitat distribution encompassed an area of only 652,819 km2, accounting for 15.65% of the suitable habitat for C. equisetifolia, and 30,132 km2, representing 0.7% of the suitable habitat for C. junghuhniana. However, by the year 2080, the habitat range for C. equisetifolia is projected to expand significantly to cover 755,082 km2 (18%) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. In contrast, C. junghuhniana is expected to experience a notable reduction, with its suitable habitat shrinking to 25,332 km2 (0.6%) under the influence of RCP 8.5. Notably, these shifts are characterized by a southeastward migration of C. equisetifolia towards Indonesian Borneo from Malaysian-Indonesian border and an eastward shift of C. junghuhniana towards the east of Sulawesi from the Gulf of Bone. These findings highlight the dynamic nature of species distributions in response to changing climatic conditions, emphasizing the need for proactive conservation efforts and adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological impacts.
Co-Authors AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ARI PITOYO ARI PITOYO GILANG DWI NUGROHO Gunawan Gunawan HASNA KHAIRUNNISA ILYAS NURSAMSI ILYAS NURSAMSI ILYAS NURSAMSI MINI AMBARWATI KUSUMA DEWI MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD AMJAD HAMY FAQIIH MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD REYNALDY PUTRAYUDA Nisyawati NISYAWATI NISYAWATI PRABANG SETYONO PRABANG SETYONO PRAKASH PRADAN PRAKASH PRADHAN SAPTA SUHARDONO SAPTA SUHARDONO SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO