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All Journal Jurnal Nasional Komputasi dan Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran (JRPP) Jurnal Pendidikan dan Konseling Literatus Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Jurnal Natural Igya ser hanjop: Jurnal Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Journal of Social Research Jurnal Suara Pengabdian 45 TONGKONAN: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Journal of Innovative and Creativity JBIMA: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Esther Ria Matulessy
Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Papua
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Automotive Engineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Neuroscience Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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ANALISIS DINAMIKA MODEL MANGSA-PEMANGSA DENGAN EFEK ALLEE MULTIPLIKATIF PADA MANGSA DAN PEMBAGIAN POPU-LASI PEMANGSA MENJADI KELAS SEHAT DAN TERINFEKSI La Ode Muhlis; Astifan E Matnai; Rium Hilum; Esther Ria Matulessy; Tri Widjajanti Tri Widjajanti; Zulkarnain Zulkarnain; Sabir Sumarna
Jurnal Natural Vol. 22 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Natural
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Papua

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30862/jn.v22i1.311

Abstract

This study examines the interaction between prey and predator populations by incorporating a multiplicative Allee effect on the prey and disease infection in the predator. The mathematical model is constructed using a system of differential equations that integrates logistic prey growth, Holling type II functional response, and compartmental dynamics of healthy and infected predators. The analysis was carried out through nondimensionalization, linearization, and equilibrium point determination using the Jacobian matrix to investigate the local stability of the system. The results indicate that the system possesses several equilibrium points representing population extinction, prey-only existence, and coexistence of prey with either healthy or infected predators. The stability of these equilibria is strongly influenced by parameters such as the prey intrinsic growth rate, the Allee threshold, and the disease transmission rate. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the Allee effect can drive the prey population to extinction when its size falls below a critical threshold, while the disease in predators reduces the growth of healthy predators and thus contributes to the persistence of the prey population. This research enriches the field of mathematical ecology by providing new insights into the role of Allee effects and epidemiology in predator-prey dynamics.
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN DAN HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN KEBUTUHAN ENERGI LISTRIK SEKTOR BISNIS (Studi Kasus: PT. PLN (PERSERO) ULP Manokwari Kota) Prita Larasati Prita Larasati; Esther Ria Matulessy; Nurhaida Nurhaida
Jurnal Natural Vol. 20 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Natural
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Papua

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30862/jn.v20i1.264

Abstract

Electric energy forecasting for the business sector is one of the solutions made to predict the need for electrical energy, especially the business sector, which is increasing every period. The purpose of this research is to forecast the electrical energy demand of the business sector to predict events that will occur in the future using mathematical models to minimize unwanted risks. Based on the data plot in the form of a linear trend and the research objectives, a comparison of the Brown and Holt double exponential smoothing methods is used in forecasting the electrical energy demand of the Manokwari City business sector to obtain the best model for the period August 2023 to July is 2024. The result of this study is to compare the best model obtained from the two models, namely Holt's double exponential smoothing with a forecasting model using parameters and with MAD value of , MSE value of , and MAPE value of .
Clinic of Mathematics with the PPLAM Approach: Efforts to Improve Students’ Mathematics Learning in Manokwari Loria Amisah Lubis; Trigarcia Maleachi Randa; Esther Ria Matulessy; Chrisaria Palungan; Dahlia Gladiola Rurina Menufandu

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Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32672/jnkti.v9i1.10415

Abstract

Abstrak - Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis efektivitas program Klinik Matematika dengan pendekatan Embedded Learning Analytics (PPLAM) dalam meningkatkan pemahaman siswa kelas VII pada materi operasi bilangan bulat. Penelitian menggunakan metode kuasi-eksperimen dengan desain one-group pretest–posttest. Intervensi dilaksanakan melalui rangkaian kegiatan pretest, latihan terstruktur, dan posttest dalam satu sesi pembelajaran. Subjek penelitian berjumlah 25 siswa yang dipilih secara purposif berdasarkan hasil diagnosis kesulitan belajar. Data diperoleh dari tes hasil belajar dan rekaman aktivitas latihan, kemudian dianalisis menggunakan uji t berpasangan, Normalized Gain (N-Gain), dan effect size (Cohen’s d). Hasil analisis menunjukkan peningkatan yang signifikan, dengan nilai rata-rata N-Gain sebesar 0,578 (kategori sedang) dan effect size sebesar 2,164 (kategori sangat kuat). Analisis PPLAM lebih lanjut menunjukkan bahwa kualitas latihan memberikan kontribusi substansial terhadap hasil posttest dengan nilai R² sebesar 0,70. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa integrasi PPLAM dalam program Klinik Matematika berperan penting dalam memantau proses belajar dan meningkatkan efektivitas pembelajaran remedial jangka pendek pada materi operasi bilangan bulat.Kata kunci : Klinik Matematika; Operasi hitung Bilangan Bulat; N-Gain; Effect Size; Learning analytics; Abstract - This study examines the effectiveness of a Mathematics Clinic program integrated with Embedded Learning Analytics (PPLAM) in improving seventh-grade students’ understanding of integer operations. A quasi-experimental method with a one-group pretest–posttest design was employed. The intervention consisted of a pretest, structured practice activities, and a posttest conducted within a single learning session. The participants were 25 students selected purposively based on initial learning difficulties. Data were collected from achievement tests and practice-session records and analyzed using a paired-sample t-test, Normalized Gain (N-Gain), and effect size (Cohen’s d). The results indicated a significant improvement, with a mean N-Gain of 0.578 (moderate category) and a large effect size (d = 2.164). Further analysis using PPLAM revealed that practice quality contributed substantially to posttest performance, as indicated by an R² value of 0.70. These findings confirm that PPLAM plays a critical role in monitoring learning processes and enhancing the effectiveness of short-term remedial instruction in integer operations.Keywords: Mathematics Clinic,; Integer Operation;  N-Gain; Effect Size; Learning analytics;
Risiko Stunting di Papua Barat  dengan Penerapan Regresi Generalized Poisson, Quasi Poisson, dan Binomial Negatif Mastiur Renita Damanik; Esther Ria Matulessy; Rium Hilum; Trigarcia Maleachi Randa; Dahlia Gladiola Rurina Menufandu
Igya ser hanjop: Jurnal Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Vol 8 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Provinsi Papua Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47039/ish.8.2025.19-26

Abstract

Keluarga berisiko stunting merupakan keluarga yang memiliki faktor-faktor yang dapat meningkatkan risiko terjadinya stunting pada anak. Jumlah keluarga berisiko stunting termasuk data cacah (count data) yang umumnya dimodelkan menggunakan regresi Poisson. Namun, model regresi Poisson mengasumsikan kondisi equidispersi, yaitu nilai rata-rata sama dengan varians. Overdispersi terjadi ketika varians lebih besar daripada rata-rata. Dalam kasus seperti itu, model alternatif yang lebih sesuai diperlukan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan model terbaik jumlah keluarga yang berisiko stunting pada tingkat kecamatan di Provinsi Papua Barat pada tahun 2024 dengan menggunakan regresi Generalized Poisson, Quasi Poisson, dan Binomial Negatif. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder dari Badan Kependudukan dan Keluarga Berencana Nasional (BKKBN) Provinsi Papua Barat yang mencakup 86 kecamatan. Variabel independen yang digunakan adalah jumlah keluarga tidak mempunyai sumber air minum utama yang layak, jumlah keluarga tidak mempunyai jamban yang layak, jumlah PUS 4 Terlalu, dan jumlah keluarga bukan peserta KB modern. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa data mengalami overdispersi dengan nilai sebesar  berdasarkan uji Deviance dan  berdasarkan uji Pearson Chi-Square. Berdasarkan kriteria Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), model Quasi Poisson memberikan nilai RMSE terkecil sebesar , dibandingkan Generalized Poisson sebesar  dan Binomial Negatif sebesar . Oleh karena itu, model terbaik untuk memodelkan jumlah keluarga yang berisiko stunting di Provinsi Papua Barat pada tahun 2024 adalah regresi Quasi Poisson.  
Co-Authors Agnes Uliarta Tambunan Antonio Vaticano Lekahena Astifan E Matnai Chrisaria Palungan Chrisaria Palungan Dahlia Gladiola Rurina Menufandu Dahlia Gladiola Rurina Menufandu Desti Setya Ningsih Harina O.L Monim Indah Ratih Anggriyani Irfan Masrudin Junianto Sesa La Ode Muhlis Loria Amisah Lubis Lubis, Loria Amisah Malawat, Jihan Rahmi Mastiur Renita Damanik Matualage, Dariani Nurhaida Nurhaida Nurhaida, . Nurin Hidayah Onti Sundari Patresia Sinaga Prita Larasati Prita Larasati Puspa , Frederika Grace Riana Wijayanti Rium Hilum Rium Hilum Sabir Sumarna Surianto Bataradewa Susanti, Elok Devi Tri Widjajanti Tri Widjajanti Trigarcia Maleachi Randa Trigarcia Maleachi Randa Trigarcia Maleachi Randa Varnila Kilian Zulkarnain Zulkarnain