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All Journal Jurnal Social Economic of Agriculture Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education JURNAL SAINTIS Technologia: Jurnal Ilmiah Jurnal Engine: Energi, Manufaktur, dan Material SinarFe7 Geosfera: Jurnal Penelitian Geografi PUBLICUS: JURNAL ADMINISTRASI PUBLIK Neraca Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi Jurnal Cahaya Edukasi
Irfansyah, Muhammad
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Analisis Perubahan Tutupan Lahan dan Dampaknya terhadap Ketahanan Pangan di Kota Bukittinggi Irfansyah, Muhammad; Yulfa, Arie
Geosfera: Jurnal Penelitian Geografi Vol 4, No 2 (2025): Geosfera : Jurnal Penelitian Geografi
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/geojpg.v4i2.37027

Abstract

This study aims to: (1) analyze land-cover changes from 2018 to 2024, and (2) analyze the impact of paddy field conversion for food security in Bukittinggi City. A quantitative descriptive approach based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was employed, using Sentinel-2 image classification with the Random Forest algorithm. Land-use changes were analyzed through overlay techniques, while food security was assessed by comparing rice availability and rice demand. The impacts of land conversion were tested using a Paired Sample t-Test, and projected paddy field decline was estimated through Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS). The results indicate an increase in built-up land by 31.70 hectares and a decrease in paddy fields by 20.92 hectares between 2018 and 2024, along with reductions in several other land-use classes. Additionally, 7 hectares of Protected Paddy Fields were converted, reflecting weak effectiveness of land-protection policies. Paddy field conversion reduced rice availability from 3,157.35 tons to 2,185.11 tons, while rising demand widened the deficit from –3,835.57 tons to –5,909.94 tons in 2024. The t-Test showed a significant decline in food security, with average fulfillment decreasing from 33.74% to 33.37% (sig. 0.048). ETS projections further indicate that paddy fields will continue to decline and may nearly disappear by 2201–2202 if conversion is not controlled. In conclusion, paddy field conversion poses a substantial threat to Bukittinggi’s food security, and without strict regulation, the region may reach a critical point in the coming years.
Co-Authors Anwar Fansuri, Muhammad Ari Kamayanti Arifin, Jainal Asrofi Buntoro, Ghulam Berlian, Muhammad Elisa Wildayana Fadillah Silalahi, Muhammad Haris Fatihah, Anisa Hartadi, Budi Helfia Edial Hutabarat, Nova Windy Kausesra, Lastria Mardhatillah, Fitria Rahmi Muhammad Firman Muhammad Yamin Nisa, Raudatun Nur Salsabila, Tri Raisya Nurhalimatussya'diah, Annisa Nurhayati Nurhayati Nurlathifah, Annisa Rahman, Fauzi Yusa Rendi Rendi, Rendi Retno Widiastuti Rosa, Novia Stefanus Barlian Soeryamassoeka Sugianti Yulfa, Arie