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Gunawan, Didik
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The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model for Predicting Jakarta Composite Index Gunawan, Didik; Astika, Weni
Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Vol. 4, No. 1 (March 2022)
Publisher : SAFE-Network

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (300.144 KB) | DOI: 10.37034/infeb.v4i1.114

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to test the ability of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the value of the Jakarta Composite Index (JKSE) which fluctuates greatly due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The population in this study is JKSE daily closing price data for the period January 2020 to April 2021, so the sample in this study is 324 time series data. The results showed that the best ARIMA model for predicting the value of the Jakarta Composite Index was ARIMA (3,1,9). ARIMA (3,1,9) can predict the JKSE value very well because the value of the forecasting results is not much different from the actual value. This is also evidenced by the results of the accuracy test using MAPE which has a result of 1,729 which means the accuracy of forecasting is 98,27%.
Penerapan Smart Contract dalam Keuangan Syariah: Tinjauan Literatur tentang Integrasi Cryptocurrency dan Blockchain Gunawan, Didik
Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam Vol. 11 No. 01 (2025): JIEI : Vol.11, No. 01, 2025
Publisher : ITB AAS INDONESIA Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The integration of smart contracts in Islamic finance represents a significant shift toward digital transformation, offering enhanced efficiency, transparency, and automation in financial transactions. This study aims to explore the potential and challenges of smart contract applications in Sharia-compliant finance, particularly in sectors such as Islamic banking, sukuk issuance, zakat management, and crowdfunding. Using a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach, this research analyzes academic publications and industry reports from 2014 to 2024 to assess the compatibility of smart contracts with Sharia principles. The findings reveal that while blockchain technology can improve transactional integrity and reduce costs, the compliance of cryptocurrencies with Islamic law remains a contentious issue, especially concerning gharar (uncertainty) and speculation. Furthermore, the absence of uniform global regulations and the risk of security vulnerabilities in smart contracts pose significant challenges. To facilitate adoption, this study recommends the development of standardized smart contract frameworks, the harmonization of regulatory policies, and the implementation of Sharia-compliant auditing mechanisms. The research concludes that, with appropriate legal frameworks and security measures, smart contracts have the potential to revolutionize Islamic finance and foster broader financial inclusion in the Muslim world.
PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH PT. UNILEVER INDONESIA Tbk MENGGUNAKAN GARCH Gunawan, Didik
Krigan: Journal of Management and Sharia Business Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): Desember 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sjech M. Djamil Djambek Bukittinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30983/krigan.v1i2.7976

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui perbandingan model peramalan dalam meramalkan harga saham PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk. Pada penelitian ini terdapat 2 model peramalan yaitu peramalan ARIMA dan GARCH. Populasi yang digunakan dalam penelitian yaitu data harga penutupan harian saham PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk periode Januari 2018 sampai Juni 2022 berjumlah 1090 data time series, dan pengambilan sampel dilakukan menggunakan teknik nonprobability sampling dengan metode sampling jenuh sehingga sampel pada penelitian berjumlah 1090 data time series. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model peramalan terbaik untuk memprediksi harga saham PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk yaitu  ARIMA (1,1,1) dan GARCH (1,1). Dalam model ARIMA (1,1,1) terdapat asumsi yang tidak terpenuhi yaitu asumsi homokedastisitas atau dalam model terdapat unsur heteroskedastisitas sehingga harus menggunakan model GARCH (1,1) dengan MAPE 1,91% terpilih sebagai model peramalan yang terbaik dalam meramalkan harga saham PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk.
Model Mediasi Kepuasan Konsumen Terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan Apriyanti, Rini; Dinovidta, Tio Lenta; Gunawan, Didik; Batubara, Rizki Wulanita
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 2 (2025): June 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i2.7359

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of price and reliability on consumer satisfaction and its implications for customer loyalty at PT. Tiki Jalur Nugraha Ekakurir (JNE) Batu Bara Branch. The research is motivated by the declining market share of JNE compared to its main competitor, J&T Express, which indicates potential issues in maintaining customer loyalty. This study employs a quantitative approach using non-probability sampling with a purposive sampling technique. Data were collected from 94 respondents who were active JNE customers and analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) method based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) with the assistance of SmartPLS 3.0 software. The results show that the variables of price and reliability do not have a direct significant effect on customer loyalty. This is indicated by the t-statistic value for price at 1.663 with a significance level (p-value) of 0.097, and for reliability at 0.529 with a p-value of 0.597—both below the threshold for significance (t > 1.96 and p < 0.05). Conversely, price and reliability significantly influence consumer satisfaction, with t-statistics of 3.939 (p = 0.000) and 3.167 (p = 0.002), respectively. Consumer satisfaction also has a direct significant effect on customer loyalty with a t-value of 5.701 and p = 0.000. Furthermore, consumer satisfaction acts as a mediating variable, as shown by the indirect effect of price on loyalty (0.267; t = 3.240) and reliability on loyalty (0.211; t = 2.759), both statistically significant. These findings affirm that consumer satisfaction is a key factor in building customer loyalty
Dinamika Loyalitas Konsumen Gen Z: Peran Strategis Brand Ambassador Dan Kualitas Produk dalam Ekosistem Pemasaran Kecantikan Wardah Lestari, Putri Ayu; Paramita S, Novia; Gunawan, Didik; Puspaningrum, Cici
Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen dan Ilmu Ekonomi (Jasmien) Vol. 5 No. 03 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 03 (2025): Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen dan Ilmu Ekonomi (Jasmien)
Publisher : Cattleya Darmaya Fortuna

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54209/jasmien.v5i03.1297

Abstract

The rapid growth of Indonesia's beauty industry has made consumer loyalty a strategic focus for cosmetic brands, particularly among Generation Z. This study analyzes the influence of brand ambassadors and product quality on customer loyalty in the context of Wardah, a leading halal beauty brand. Using a quantitative method, a survey was distributed to 100 respondents who follow Ayana Jihye Moon—Wardah's brand ambassador—on Instagram. Data analysis employed multiple linear regression, t-tests, F-tests, and classical assumption tests (validity, reliability, normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity). Results indicate that the brand ambassador has a significant positive effect on customer loyalty (t = 2.706, p < 0.05), while product quality does not show a significant effect (t = 1.003, p > 0.05). However, both variables simultaneously influence customer loyalty significantly (F = 43.756, p < 0.05). These findings highlight that the emotional connection built through a well-chosen brand ambassador, especially one aligned with consumer values like Ayana, plays a more decisive role in forming brand loyalty among Gen Z than product quality alone. While product quality remains essential, it is insufficient without effective communication and brand representation. This research contributes to understanding consumer behavior in the digital era and offers insights for marketers to tailor strategies for maintaining brand loyalty in a competitive market.
Pengaruh Guncangan Harga Batubara Dan Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Terhadap Imbal Hasil Pasar Saham Pada Sektor Energi Rizki, Anita; Andini; Gunawan, Didik; Cahyadi, Lukieto
Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen dan Ilmu Ekonomi (Jasmien) Vol. 5 No. 03 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 03 (2025): Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen dan Ilmu Ekonomi (Jasmien)
Publisher : Cattleya Darmaya Fortuna

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54209/jasmien.v5i03.1344

Abstract

This study examines the effect of coal price changes and exchange rate dynamics on stock returns in Indonesia's energy sector. Using secondary data covering the time span from January 2022 to December 2024 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the study finds that coal prices have a noticeable impact on stock returns in the short period, but do not show a meaningful influence in the longer time horizon. In contrast, exchange rate movements are shown to have important effects in both short and long horizons. The results provide a new perspective for investors in strategizing in the energy sector, highlighting the need to consider coal prices for short-term decisions and exchange rates for long-term planning.
Prediksi harga minyak mentah WTI dengan menggunakan metode Garch dalam ancaman perang dunia III Lestari, Tri; Andriani, Putri; Gunawan, Didik; Cahyadi, Willy
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1778

Abstract

This research aims to forecast fluctuations in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil within the potential threat of World War III by utilizing the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method. Using daily closing price data of WTI crude oil from January 2022 to March 2025, consisting of 850 observations, this study employs the ARIMA-GARCH model to capture the patterns and volatility of the time series data. Based on the conducted analysis, it is concluded that the ARIMA (2,1,2) and GARCH (1,1) models demonstrate optimal performance, with a MAPE value of 13.71%, indicating a good prediction accuracy level. The forecast for the next two years shows a trend of price increases starting from Q2 2025 through Q4 2027. This research demonstrates how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern Conflicts, can affect global oil price volatility while highlighting the GARCH model’s effectiveness in capturing heteroskedasticity in highly fluctuating financial data.
Resilience of Mining Stocks: Impact of Gold Price Volatility and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Antam’s Investment Performance Dewi, Ririn Fitria; Nurdini, Yuni; Gunawan, Didik; Cahyadi, Lukieto
Jurnal Mantik Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025): May: Manajemen, Teknologi Informatika dan Komunikasi (Mantik)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/mantik.v8i5.6309

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of gold price volatility and rupiah exchange rate on the stock performance of Antam Public Limited Company during four periods of global uncertainty, namely the US-China Trade War (2018-2020), COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2022), Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-2023), and Israel-Hamas Conflict (2023-2024). Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this analysis evaluates the short-term and long-term relationships between these variables based on daily time series data. The results show significant variation in the effects between periods. Gold price volatility has a strong effect on Antam shares during the US-China Trade War (short and long run) and the COVID-19 Pandemic (long run), reflecting gold's role as a safe haven asset. In contrast, the rupiah exchange rate dominated the influence during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (short and long run), driven by a weakening exchange rate that boosted export earnings. In the Israel-Hamas Conflict, both variables were insignificant, indicating the limited impact of the regional conflict. These findings underscore the dynamics of market responses to global crises, providing new insights into the resilience of mining stocks and strategic implications for investors and policy makers in managing economic risks
PENGARUH SOSIAL MEDIA MARKETING, CONTENT DAN ONLINE REVIEW TERHADAP LOYALITAS PENGUNJUNG KEBUN BINATANG RZOO & PARK Wani Saragih, Tri; Nurnabilla, Siti; Gunawan, Didik; Mardayanti, Imelda
Berajah Journal Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Berajah Journal
Publisher : CV. Lafadz Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47353/bj.v5i1.562

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of social media marketing (X1) Contetn (X2 and Online Review (X3) on visitor loyalty (Y) at the Rzoo&park case study follower @rzooandpark. This research was conducted for 2 months starting from February-april 2025. The research method used was the online survey method. The population in this study was all followers @rzooandpark namely 6.631 followers. The sample technique uses accidental sampling, which amounted to 98 obtained from the calculation of the Slovin formula above with a margin of error of 10%. Data collection using a questionnaire by utilizing google form. Based on the results of the determinant coefficient analysis test, it is known that R Square in the Summary model is 0.907. it was concluded that 91% of visitor loyalty can be explained by social media marketing, content and online review, while the remaining 9% is influenced by other variables that are not studied
Penerapan Konseling Behavioral Teknik Modelling Untuk Mengatasi Kecanduan Game Online Pada Anak Usia 10 Tahun Gunawan, Didik
KONSELI: Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling (E-Journal) Vol 5 No 2 (2018): KONSELI: Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling (E-Journal)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/kons.v5i2.3307

Abstract

Addiction to online games is an excessive behavior to play online games that have an impact on the formation of maladaptive behavior, not in accordance with the norms prevailing in the community. Counseling behavioral modeling techniques is one of the services that are considered appropriate to overcome online game addiction problems. The purpose of this study is to determine whether counseling behavioral modeling techniques can be applied to overcome online game addiction in children aged 10 years. The type of research used by researchers is the type of single subject research, using the A-B research design (A = baseline condition, B = intervention condition). A-B shows two stages of design; A is baseline data (pretest) and B is intervention (posttest). The results showed that behavioral counseling modeling techniques were effective for reducing online game addiction in children aged 10 years.
Co-Authors Andini Anita Rizki Apriyanti, Rini Astika, Weni Batubara, Rizki Wulanita Cahyadi, Lukieto Cahyadi, Willy Dewi, Ririn Fitria Dikdik Kusdiana Dinovidta, Tio Lenta Hutauruk, Rapat Piter Sony Imelda Mardayanti Nurdini, Yuni Nurhafizah, Siti Nurnabilla, Siti Paramita S, Novia Puspaningrum, Cici Putri Andriani Putri Ayu Lestari Rahayu Rahayu Sianipar, Cristin Natalia Suwita, Alya Syahputra, Andry Tri Lestari Wani Saragih, Tri