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All Journal Jurnal Manajemen & Keuangan International Journal of Supply Chain Management Ekombis: Jurnal Fakultas Ekonomi Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Akuntansi (JENSI) Ihtiyath : Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Syariah Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika JURNAL PENELITIAN PENDIDIKAN SOSIAL HUMANIORA International Journal of Business, Economics, and Social Development Jurnal Hurriah: Jurnal Evaluasi Pendidikan dan Penelitian Jurnal Ekonomi JURNAL EKONOMIKA INDONESIA Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Unimal Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics Widyagama National Conference on Economics and Business (WNCEB) Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Universitas Serambi Mekkah WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal Pengabdian Sosial JESKaPe: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, Akuntansi dan Perbankan Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Terpadu
Fanny Nailufar
Universitas Malikussaleh
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Astronomy Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Jurnal Hurriah: Jurnal Evaluasi Pendidikan dan Penelitian

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Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices Indonesian Gold Spot With ARDL Model sasrinawati, sasrinawati; Husein, Ratna; Nailufar, Fanny; Ichsan, Ichsan
JURNAL HURRIAH: Jurnal Evaluasi Pendidikan dan Penelitian Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Hurriah: Journal of Educational Evaluation and Research
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan dan Kemanusiaan Hurriah Aceh

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables—namely inflation and exchange rates—on Indonesian gold spot prices from 1995 to 2018, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study seeks to comprehend the short-term and long-term correlations among these variables. Time series data were obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency, Index Mundi, and the Gold Price Chart. The findings indicate that, in the near term, inflation negatively and significantly affects gold prices, however, in the long term, it positively and significantly influences them. Likewise, the exchange rate exerts a substantial and adverse impact in both the short and long run, suggesting that a stronger Rupiah generally elevates gold prices. The ARDL model validates the existence of a cointegrated relationship among the variables, corroborated by the limits testing methodology. Diagnostic assessments confirm the stability and reliability of the calculated model. These findings indicate that the regulation of inflation and exchange rates is essential for maintaining gold price stability in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Aliasud, Aliasud Aliasuddin Aliasuddin Andyna, Cut Arliansyah, Arliansyah Badaruddin Badaruddin Chica Kurniawan Cut Putri Mellita Sari Cut Putri Mellita Sari Devi Andriyani Dewi Puspita Sari Fadhilah Fadhilah Fadilla Hummaira Hamdhana, Defry Hawadayanti, Nur Hayanuddin Safri Hijri Juliansyah Hijri Juliansyah Husein, Ratna Ichsan Ichwanul Ichsan Indrayani Indrayani Jariah Abu Bakar Juanda, Reza Jumilah Jumilah Khairil Anwar Khairil Anwar Khairisma Maghfirah, Rieska Miftahul Jannah Muhammad Ridha Muhammad Yoesoef, Yoesrizal Murtala, Murtala Mutia Rahmah Mutia Rahmah Nastiti, Anggi Wida Nelly Nelly Nurhadi al siddiq Nuriman Ramadhani Putri Mellita Sari, Cut Putri Putri Rahmi Rahmi Ratna Ratna Ratna Ratna Reza Juanda Risna Risna, Risna Roha Datul Aisy Sari Yulis Terfiadi Sari, Cut Putri Mellita sasrinawati, sasrinawati Sufitrayati Sufitrayati Sufitrayati, Sufitrayati Suprianti Suprianti T. Zulham Tassya, Aulia Trisniarti, Noviami Yudha Ganesha Yurina Yurina Yusra, Muhammad Zuriani Ritonga