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Dynamic Correlation Analysis Between IHSG and JII Index as Hedging and Safe Haven (2020-2025) Rahmad Afrenal Alim; Igo Febrianto; Fajrin Satria Dwi Kesumah
Green Economics: International Journal of Islamic and Economic Education Vol. 2 No. 3 (2025): Green Economics: International Journal of Islamic and Economic Education
Publisher : International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70062/greeneconomics.v2i3.306

Abstract

This study investigates the potential role of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) as a hedging instrument and safe haven asset against the Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) during the period from January 2020 to April 2025, a time characterized by elevated market volatility. The main objective is to determine whether sharia-compliant stocks in Indonesia offer diversification benefits during periods of financial stress. Utilizing daily closing prices converted into log returns, the study employs the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (A-DCC GARCH) model to capture time-varying correlations between JII and IHSG. Prior to applying the model, standard diagnostic tests were performed to ensure data quality, including tests for stationarity, autocorrelation, and ARCH effects.Empirical results reveal a persistently high correlation between IHSG and JII, with an average of 0.826 and values exceeding 0.95 during periods of market turbulence. These findings indicate that JII does not fulfill the characteristics of a hedge or safe haven asset. A robustness analysis using extended data from 2010 to mid-2025 further supports the conclusion, showing the continued presence of strong comovement between the two indices across different market regimes. This suggests a structural relationship rather than one driven solely by crisis events. The high correlation may be attributed to overlapping index constituents and similar investor responses to market shocks. These results challenge the prevailing notion that Islamic indices inherently offer protection during downturns. As such, investors seeking to mitigate portfolio risk may need to look beyond domestic sharia equities and consider broader asset classes or international diversification. Future research is encouraged to explore cross-market and multi-asset safe haven properties, especially in the context of emerging economies.
Analysis of Financial Flexibility, Earning Volatility, and Asset Structure on Capital Structure in Infrastructure Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2021–2024 Anggara, Amelia Putri; Febrianto, Igo; Kesumah, Fajrin Satria Dwi
International Journal Of Education, Social Studies, And Management (IJESSM) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): The International Journal of Education, Social Studies, and Management (IJESSM)
Publisher : LPPPIPublishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52121/ijessm.v5i2.813

Abstract

This study explores the impact of financial flexibility, earnings volatility, and asset structure on the capital structure of companies operating in the heavy construction and civil engineering subsector of Indonesia’s infrastructure industry, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2021 and 2024. Employing panel data regression on 285 firm-year observations, the research identifies several critical insights. First, financial flexibility approximated by the ratio of retained earnings to total assets has a positive and statistically significant relationship with capital structure. This suggests that firms with greater internal financial strength tend to rely more on debt financing when additional funding is required, allowing them to respond efficiently to financial risks and investment opportunities in this capital-intensive environment. Second, earnings volatility, calculated as the standard deviation of return on assets (ROA), does not exhibit a significant influence on capital structure decisions. This outcome indicates that income variability does not markedly affect firms’ use of debt, likely due to their ability to manage unstable earnings through adaptive financial practices. Lastly, asset structure—measured by the proportion of fixed assets to total assets—also shows no significant correlation with capital structure. This result challenges the universal applicability of the pecking order theory, especially within industries characterized by high capital demands and unique risk profiles, such as heavy construction. The findings offer valuable insights by analyzing financial decision-making in a capital-intensive sector within a developing economy and highlight the potential need to reconsider traditional capital structure theories in specific industry contexts.
Volatilitas Nilai Tukar, Arus Investasi Asing, dan Stabilitas Keuangan di Negara ASEAN-5: Analisis Empiris Kesumah, Fajrin Satria Dwi; Firdaus, Luthfi
SEIKO : Journal of Management & Business Vol 8, No 2 (2025): July - December
Publisher : Program Pascasarjana STIE Amkop Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37531/sejaman.v8i2.10247

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar, arus investasi asing langsung (FDI), pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan inflasi terhadap stabilitas keuangan di negara-negara ASEAN-5 selama periode 2011–2024. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menguji peran variabel kontrol eksternal berupa suku bunga acuan The Fed dan tekanan keuangan di pasar emerging market (FSI_EM). Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data panel dan estimasi melalui Common Effect Model (CEM), hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan PDB berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap stabilitas keuangan, sementara FDI dan inflasi tidak signifikan. Variabel kontrol eksternal menunjukkan bahwa tekanan keuangan di emerging market memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap stabilitas keuangan, sedangkan suku bunga The Fed menunjukkan pengaruh negatif yang signifikan pada tingkat 10%. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan makroekonomi yang adaptif, koordinasi regional, dan sistem peringatan dini untuk meningkatkan ketahanan keuangan ASEAN-5 terhadap guncangan eksternal.